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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:43 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 9
It turned at Q4 4:44, 4th and 8, on Drake London — 18.9 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 24–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:44, Falcons +18.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:44 · 4th and 8
Drake London
Falcons
(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 8 of 12 on third down, against Falcons at 1 of 10 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.00 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Terrell Jennings's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 8:56 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
John Parker Romo38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+317–24Drake London8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Michael Penix Jr. · kick no good, wide right+623–248 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 54 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Patriots’s 65 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Patriots 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
ATL's pass rate over expected, +5.0 pts, is past their previous high of +2.4 pts in week 7 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons5.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.3 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 54 snaps
Patriots3.0 ptsright on their number · +1.0 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 81%
Tendencies room →Falcons65.9%leaned — passed early · +15.3 vs their 50.5%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 41 early downs
Patriots54.7%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 49%
Tendencies room →Falcons20.0%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Patriots15.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.9 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 129%
Fourth Down room →Falcons—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.8%.
Patriots—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 43.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 70%
Tendencies room →Falcons50.0%inside their normal wobble · +12.3 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Patriots32.5%right on their number · +4.3 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 31%
Tendencies room →Falcons17.5%inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Patriots10.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
ATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.0 pts, 11.3 points above their season mean of -6.3 pts and 1.7 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New England Patriots
49 dressed · 4 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
19/29, 259 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
0.4 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
22/37, 221 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
3.7 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Drake London banked 12.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 38.8 | +12.3 | 98% | 100% | 41% | 46% | 9/14, 118 yd, 3 TD |
| Michael Penix Jr.QB · Starter QB | 22.7 | +2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/37, 221 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 19 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Featured Receiver | 20.0 | +7.1 | 24% | 33% | 21% | 45% | 4/6, 100 yd, 1 TD |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.6 | −2.1 | 96% | 98% | 29% | 9% | 12 car, 46 yd · 8/10, 50 yd |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 16.4 | −2.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/29, 259 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 20 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.8 | +5.9 | 60% | 73% | 14% | 22% | 3/4, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB · Committee Back | 12.7 | −3.8 | 75% | 90% | 21% | 0% | 14 car, 55 yd · 4/6, 32 yd |
| Terrell JenningsRB | 11.4 | +3.1 | 25% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 11 car, 35 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Featured Receiver | 9.1 | −0.7 | 75% | 80% | 21% | 17% | 4/6, 51 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Featured Receiver | 7.8 | −2.9 | 95% | 95% | 21% | 26% | 4/7, 38 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +1.1 | 53% | 43% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | 0.0 | 63% | 50% | 7% | 3% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.3 | 100% | 100% | 6% | 13% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 0.6 | −0.4 | 30% | 28% | 0% | — | 2 car, 6 yd |
| Jamal AgnewWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Feleipe FranksTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| David SillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 68% | 68% | 3% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jack WestoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 46% | 38% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 26% | 30% | 4% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Efton Chism IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 46% | 50% | 4% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on ATL-9-M.Penix, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.
Q4 2:09 · Falcons · 2nd & 10 at NE 48 · gained nothing · -1.25 EP · −18.2% win probability
152 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 85 yards from the ATL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons0
Patriots6Falcons0Patriots7Falcons6Patriots7Falcons7Patriots7Falcons7Patriots13Falcons7Patriots14Falcons7Patriots20Falcons7Patriots21Falcons13Patriots21Falcons14Patriots21Falcons14Patriots24Falcons17Patriots24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Falcons23Patriots24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown away.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 22/37 | 221 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Tyler Allgeier |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 9 | 14 | 118 | 3 | 41% | +11.4 |
| Bijan Robinson | 8 | 10 | 50 | 0 | 29% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Terrell | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hughes |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 19/29 | 259 | 2 | 1 | 6 | +0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_09_ATL_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 47 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 3.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| +0.5 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 | 21% | −3.5 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +0.2 |
| David Sills | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| LaCale London | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| JD Bertrand | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalon Walker | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dee Alford | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Roberts | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Dorlus | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Watts | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Terrell Jennings | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Drake Maye | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 4 | 6 | 100 | 1 | 21% | +7.6 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 21% | −0.4 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 14% | +4.5 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 21% | −0.4 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4% | +2.2 |
| Terrell Jennings | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | +0.3 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Gonzalez | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Carlton Davis III | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Elliss | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Spillane | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khyiris Tonga | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Woodson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marte Mapu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry III | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
