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2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · Gillette Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

23

New England PatriotsWinner

24

NE -5.5 no coverO 45.5 ✓

New England Patriots 24–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:44, NE +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NE ↑ATL ↓
Q4 · 4:44ATL 23 — NE 24ATL ball · 4th & 8NE 80%

(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 4:44NE +19% win prob(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 2:09ATL +12% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on ATL-9-M.Penix, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.
  3. Q4 · 2:22NE +12% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London ran ob at NE 48 for 25 yards.
  4. Q4 · 1:42NE +11% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry to NE 40 for 17 yards (31-X.Watts).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:48NE Touchdown

    (7:48) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 3-D.Douglas for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — NE 7
  2. Q1 · 0:29ATL Touchdown

    (:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — NE 7
  3. Q2 · 8:56NE Touchdown

    (8:56) 26-T.Jennings left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — NE 14
  4. Q2 · 5:18NE Touchdown

    (5:18) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 8-S.Diggs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — NE 21
  5. Q2 · 0:16ATL Touchdown

    (:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 14 — NE 21
  6. Q3 · 6:30NE Field goal

    (6:30) 36-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

    Score after this play: ATL 14 — NE 24
  7. Q4 · 14:12ATL Field goal

    (14:12) 39-J.Romo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 17 — NE 24
  8. Q4 · 4:44ATL Touchdown

    (4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: ATL 23 — NE 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsPatriots
Offensive plays5465
Total yards288334 (edge)
Yards per play5.3 (edge)5.1
Expected points added / play0.07 (edge)0.01
Success rate41%45% (edge)
Dropback rate74%62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.14 (edge)0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.120.00 (edge)
Third downs1/108/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps1623 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)6
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

19/29, 259 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.4 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Michael Penix Jr.QB

22/37, 221 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

3.7 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

TreVeyon HendersonRB

14 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

12 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

9/14 for 118 yds, 3 TD

41% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added

Receiving · NE

DeMario DouglasWR

4/6 for 100 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 325-21:41Punt
2NENE 2511755:35Touchdown +7
3ATLATL 317172:57Punt
4NENE 6451:28Punt
5ATLATL 476532:55Touchdown +7
6NENE 3514656:32Touchdown +7
7ATLATL 30531:07Punt
8NENE 286722:34Touchdown +7
9ATLATL 288533:54Turnover on downs
10NENE 29540:54Fumble
11ATLNE 6360:11Touchdown +7
12NENE 35200:12End of half
13NENE 3116568:34Field goal +3
14ATLATL 16541:03Punt
15NENE 48200:46Interception
16ATLATL 499365:29Field goal +3
17NENE 2210314:27Punt
18ATLATL 1513805:01Touchdown +6
19NENE 29541:10Punt
20ATLATL 197381:37Punt
21NENE 185221:53End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 80 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Michael Penix Jr.22/372213013.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson12463.80-1.1
Michael Penix Jr.2199.501.8
Tyler Allgeier263.00-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London914118341%11.4
Bijan Robinson81050029%0.5
Kyle Pitts4738021%-3.5
Darnell Mooney121506%0.2
David Sills01003%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
A.J. Terrell530.000
Kaden Elliss420.000
Mike Hughes320.000
JD Bertrand410.000
Jalon Walker412.001
LaCale London412.000
Dee Alford400.001
Xavier Watts310.000
Sam Roberts220.000
Brandon Dorlus312.000

New England Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Drake Maye19/292592160.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
TreVeyon Henderson14553.90-0.4
Terrell Jennings11353.210.5
Drake Maye8202.500.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeMario Douglas46100121%7.6
Hunter Henry4651021%-0.4
Stefon Diggs3438114%4.5
TreVeyon Henderson4632021%-0.4
Austin Hooper112004%2.2
Terrell Jennings11904%0.7
Mack Hollins22907%0.3
Kayshon Boutte01004%-0.8
Kyle Williams01004%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Christian Gonzalez610.002
Carlton Davis III510.001
Robert Spillane230.000
Christian Elliss140.000
Jaylinn Hawkins220.000
Marcus Jones210.000
Khyiris Tonga110.000
Joshua Farmer110.000
Harold Landry III200.000
K'Lavon Chaisson201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NE -5.5
Closing total
45.5
ATL moneyline
+205
NE moneyline
-250

Patriots closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 47 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
52°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
ATL 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Mike Vrabel