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Atlanta Falcons 23 at New England Patriots 24. Final.
Patriots -5.5 no coverO 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 9
New England Patriots 24, Falcons 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 4:44, 4th and 8, on Drake London — 18.9 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:44 · 4th and 8
Drake London
Falcons
(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Patriots closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
New England Patriots 24–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:44, Falcons +18.9% win probability on one snap.
18.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drake LondonFalconsQ4 2:22(2:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London ran ob at NE 48 for 25 yards.
12.2pts
Michael Penix Jr.PatriotsQ4 2:09(2:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on ATL-9-M.Penix, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.
12.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 8 of 12 on third down, against Falcons at 1 of 10 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.00 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Falcons154 of 166 plays carry both curves
(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.9 for PatriotsExpected points −4.26 for PatriotsThe model had Falcons 4 points higher than the market did.play 144
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:44NE +19% win prob(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:09ATL +12% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on ATL-9-M.Penix, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.
4th · 2:22NE +12% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London ran ob at NE 48 for 25 yards.
4th · 1:42NE +11% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry to NE 40 for 17 yards (31-X.Watts).
4th · 6:03NE +10% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to NE 10 for 10 yards (7-C.Davis).
4th · 2:07ATL +9% win prob(2:07) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 87-D.Sills.
4th · 7:58
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Terrell Jennings's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 8:56 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
2nd0:16Drake London·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Michael Penix Jr.from Michael Penix Jr.+714–21
3rd6:30Andy Borregales·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Ashby+314–24
4th14:12John Parker Romo·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+317–24
4th4:44Drake London·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Michael Penix Jr.from Michael Penix Jr. · kick no good, wide right+623–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryPatriots
Falcons3–4Patriots
288Total yards334
5.3Yards per play5.1
41%Success rate45%
10%Third-down rate67%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays5
16First downs23
1Sacks taken6
0Turnovers2
The read
Patriots ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Falcons: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.01Patriots: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Falcons: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.02Patriots: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Falcons: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.00Patriots: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 54 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Patriots’s 65 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Patriots 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 9Against their seasonOver Expected
ATL's pass rate over expected, +5.0 pts, is past their previous high of +2.4 pts in week 7 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Patriots10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.0 pts, 11.3 points above their season mean of -6.3 pts and 1.7 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Penix pass−18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on ATL-9-M.Penix, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.
Q4 2:09 · Falcons · 2nd & 10 at NE 48 · gained nothing · -1.25 EP · −18.2% win probability
152 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 85 yards from the ATL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
619
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0468%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.0854%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23+0.0152%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.1771%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1380%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.1720%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Falcons 34
Falcons0Patriots6
Falcons0Patriots7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Falcons 17
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Falcons 48
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Patriots 11
Falcons6Patriots7
Falcons7Patriots7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Falcons 47 to the Patriots 1
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Falcons7Patriots13
Falcons7Patriots14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Falcons 3
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 33
Falcons7Patriots20
Falcons7Patriots21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Falcons 11
The period ended10 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Patriots 29
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Patriots 29 to midfield
Falcons13Patriots21
Falcons14Patriots21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Patriots 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Falcons14Patriots24
Field goal16 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Falcons 5
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Falcons 20
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Falcons 49 to the Patriots 24
4th quarter49 plays
Falcons17Patriots24
Field goal3 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Falcons 45
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Falcons23Patriots24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Patriots 8
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Patriots 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.8 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Patriots 48
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Patriots 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -5.5
Closing total
45.5
Falcons moneyline
+205
Patriots moneyline
-250
Patriots closed -5.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 47 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 49°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Mike Vrabel
NE +9% win prob
(7:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London to NE 26 for 40 yards (0-C.Gonzalez). NE-0-C.Gonzalez was injured during the play. Penalty on NE-0-C.Gonzalez, Illegal Contact, declined.
4th · 4:40ATL +9% win prob39-J.Romo extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
