2025 Week 9 · Thu, Oct 30, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Miami Dolphins

BAL -7.5 ✓U 51.5 ✓Ravens closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Baltimore Ravens 28–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:46, BAL +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:46BAL 0 — MIA 3MIA ball · 2nd & 7BAL 74%

(9:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 84-T.Washington to MIA 18 for 11 yards (12-A.Gilman; 40-T.Buchanan). FUMBLES (12-A.Gilman), RECOVERED by BAL-12-A.Gilman at MIA 18. 12-A.Gilman to MIA 7 for 11 yards (8

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:46BAL +11% win prob(9:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 84-T.Washington to MIA 18 for 11 yards (12-A.Gilman; 40-T.Buchanan). FUMBLES (12-A.Gilman), RECOVERED by BAL-12-A.Gilman at MIA 18. 12-A.Gilman to MIA 7 for 11 yards (84-T.Washington; 85-G.Dulcich).
Q1 · 5:38MIA +6% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 28-D.Achane right tackle pushed ob at BAL 21 for 22 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
Q2 · 1:08BAL +6% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 28-D.Achane.
Q1 · 13:34BAL +5% win prob(13:34) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane to BAL 33 for 5 yards (24-M.Starks).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:11MIA Field goal
(12:11) 47-R.Patterson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: BAL 0 — MIA 3
Q1 · 8:30BAL Touchdown
(8:30) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — MIA 3
Q2 · 14:17BAL Touchdown
(14:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 14 — MIA 3
Q2 · 8:02MIA Field goal
(8:02) 47-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: BAL 14 — MIA 6
Q3 · 8:14BAL Touchdown
(8:14) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 88-C.Kolar for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 21 — MIA 6
Q3 · 4:22BAL Touchdown
(4:22) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-Jo.Phillips]. Penalty on MIA-23-J.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 28 — MIA 6

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Dolphins
Offensive plays	54	61
Total yards	340 (edge)	332
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.21 (edge)	-0.20
Success rate	50% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	50%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.45 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.43
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

25/40, 261 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

3.5 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

18/23, 204 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

10.4 expected points added · +18.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

19 att, 119 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

14 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

6/9 for 82 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

5/5 for 64 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 43	6	26	2:53	Field goal +3
2	BAL	BAL 33	5	7	1:42	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 4	2	14	0:50	Fumble
4	BAL	MIA 7	5	7	1:10	Touchdown +7
5	MIA	MIA 26	11	62	5:49	Missed field goal
6	BAL	BAL 25	8	75	3:26	Touchdown +7
7	MIA	MIA 35	7	27	3:32	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 23	4	4	1:49	Punt
9	MIA	BAL 29	4	4	0:52	Field goal +3
10	BAL	BAL 28	5	8	2:20	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 20	10	72	4:33	Turnover on downs
12	BAL	BAL 13	4	8	0:34	Punt
13	MIA	MIA 19	6	20	0:30	End of half
14	BAL	BAL 32	13	68	6:51	Touchdown +7
15	MIA	MIA 13	5	-7	1:46	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 40	5	60	2:08	Touchdown +7
17	MIA	MIA 30	6	18	1:45	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 15	5	38	2:11	Punt
19	MIA	MIA 8	12	80	4:16	Fumble
20	BAL	BAL 10	5	18	3:02	Punt
21	MIA	MIA 18	4	16	1:31	Interception
22	BAL	BAL 12	10	47	6:30	End of game

6 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	18/23	204	4	0	2	10.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	19	119	6.3	0.1
Lamar Jackson	5	14	2.8	-1.0
Keaton Mitchell	4	11	2.8	-0.8
Mark Andrews	2	4	2.0	1.3
Justice Hill	1	2	2.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	5	5	64	0	22%	3.8
Isaiah Likely	3	4	60	0	17%	3.0
Charlie Kolar	2	2	23	1	9%	3.1
Mark Andrews	2	3	22	2	13%	6.6
Justice Hill	2	2	13	0	9%	1.0
Rashod Bateman	2	4	13	1	17%	-2.3
Keaton Mitchell	1	1	7	0	4%	0.4
Derrick Henry	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.4
DeAndre Hopkins	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	9	3	0.0	0	1
Teddye Buchanan	3	4	0.0	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	4	2	0.0	0	2
Nate Wiggins	4	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Hamilton	3	3	0.0	0	0
Travis Jones	2	3	0.5	0	0
Malaki Starks	5	0	0.0	1	1
Alohi Gilman	2	2	0.0	0	0
Mike Green	0	2	0.5	0	0
Keondre Jackson	2	0	0.0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	25/40	261	0	1	2	3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
De'Von Achane	14	67	4.8	-2.5
Malik Washington	3	13	4.3	-5.1
Ollie Gordon II	2	6	3.0	-0.5
Tua Tagovailoa	1	1	1.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	6	9	82	24%	7.3
Greg Dulcich	5	5	49	14%	3.2
Malik Washington	3	3	48	8%	3.6
De'Von Achane	6	10	39	27%	-5.2
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	2	4	22	11%	-0.4
Tahj Washington	1	2	11	5%	-6.2
Cedrick Wilson Jr.	1	1	7	3%	2.4
Ollie Gordon II	1	1	3	3%	-0.3
Dee Eskridge	0	1	0	3%	-1.6
Tanner Conner	0	1	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Dante Trader Jr.	8	5	0.0
Tyrel Dodson	3	5	0.0
Jordyn Brooks	2	6	0.0
Rasul Douglas	2	3	0.0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	2	0.0
Jaelan Phillips	3	1	1.0
Bradley Chubb	1	2	0.0
Matthew Judon	1	2	0.0
Benito Jones	1	1	1.0
Kenneth Grant	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7.5
Closing total: 51.5
BAL moneyline: -455
MIA moneyline: +350

Ravens closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 34 — under by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: BAL 4 days · MIA 4 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Mike McDaniel