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Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 9 · Thu, Oct 30, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 9
It turned at Q1 9:46, 2nd and 7, on Tahj Washington — 11.2 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:46 · 2nd and 7
Tahj Washington
Ravens
(9:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 84-T.Washington to MIA 18 for 11 yards (12-A.Gilman; 40-T.Buchanan). FUMBLES (12-A.Gilman), RECOVERED by BAL-12-A.Gilman at MIA 18. 12-A.Gilman to MIA 7 for 11 yards (84-T.Washington; 85-G.Dulcich).
Baltimore Ravens 28–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:46, Ravens +11.2% win probability on one snap.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Dolphins at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(9:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 84-T.Washington to MIA 18 for 11 yards (12-A.Gilman; 40-T.Buchanan). FUMBLES (12-A.Gilman), RECOVERED by BAL-12-A.Gilman at MIA 18. 12-A.Gilman to MIA 7 for 11 yards (8
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mark Andrews's 2-yard touchdown catch with 8:30 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Mark Andrews2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar JacksonLead never changed again+77–36 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryDolphins
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 54 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 61 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Dolphins 3.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens1.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.9 vs their -8.5 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 54 snaps
Dolphins-1.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their -5.6 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 84%
Tendencies room →Ravens41.5%right on their number · −4.4 vs their 45.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 41 early downs
Dolphins63.0%inside their normal wobble · +12.1 vs their 50.9%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 63%
Tendencies room →Ravens22.2%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Dolphins16.7%inside their normal wobble · −12.8 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 96%
Fourth Down room →Ravens25.0%right on their number · −9.9 vs their 34.9%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins66.7%leaned — went for it · +33.5 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±23.9 week to week (+1.40× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 59%
Tendencies room →Ravens28.6%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Dolphins37.0%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 34%
Tendencies room →Ravens7.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Dolphins14.8%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 33.5 points above their season mean of 33.1% and 1.4 times their own 23.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
25/40, 261 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
3.5 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
18/23, 204 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
10.4 expected points added · +18.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Mark Andrews banked 6.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 25.6 | +5.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/23, 204 yd, 4 TD · 5 car, 14 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 16.6 | +6.0 | 50% | 59% | 13% | 18% | 2 car, 4 yd · 2/3, 22 yd, 2 TD |
| De'Von AchaneRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.6 | −8.0 | 91% | 88% | 27% | 11% | 14 car, 67 yd · 6/10, 39 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 14.2 | −1.0 | 80% | 81% | 24% | 35% | 6/9, 82 yd |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.1 | −2.3 | 64% | 48% | 4% | 0% | 19 car, 119 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Featured Receiver | 11.4 | +2.2 | 82% | 89% | 22% | 17% | 5/5, 64 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +3.9 | 46% | 30% | 9% | 9% | 2/2, 23 yd, 1 TD |
| Greg DulcichTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.9 | +1.9 | 36% | 49% | 14% | 11% | 5/5, 49 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +1.4 | 71% | 89% | 17% | 22% | 2/4, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.0 | −1.1 | 59% | 56% | 17% | 16% | 3/4, 60 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 8.5 | −5.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/40, 261 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +0.6 | 70% | 72% | 8% | 5% | 3 car, 13 yd · 3/3, 48 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −2.1 | 67% | 72% | 11% | 10% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Justice HillRB | 3.5 | −0.1 | 20% | 30% | 9% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB | 2.8 | −1.9 | 18% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 4 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB | 1.9 | −0.7 | 20% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 6 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 22% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Tahj WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.1 | −3.2 | 14% | 19% | 5% | 21% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Rasheen AliRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.6 | 32% | 30% | 4% | 19% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| LaJohntay WesterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | — | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tanner ConnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.9 | 45% | 35% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dee EskridgeWR | 0.0 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:46) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 84-T.Washington to MIA 18 for 11 yards (12-A.Gilman; 40-T.Buchanan). FUMBLES (12-A.Gilman), RECOVERED by BAL-12-A.Gilman at MIA 18. 12-A.Gilman to MIA 7 for 11 yards (84-T.Washington; 85-G.Dulcich).
Q1 9:46 · Dolphins · 2nd & 7 at MIA 7 · gained 11 · -4.94 EP · −15.7% win probability
146 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 81 yards from the MIA 8 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens0
Dolphins3How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens6Dolphins3Ravens7Dolphins3Ravens13Dolphins3Ravens14Dolphins3Ravens14Dolphins6Ravens20Dolphins6Ravens21Dolphins6Ravens27Dolphins6Ravens28Dolphins6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 18/23 | 204 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +10.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 119 | 6.3 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 22% | +3.8 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 | 17% | +3.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 9 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Teddye Buchanan | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Wiggins |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 25/40 | 261 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_09_BAL_MIA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 34 — under by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Charlie Kolar | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 9% | +3.1 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 13% | +6.6 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 9% | +1.0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 17% | −2.3 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.6 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Travis Jones | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Malaki Starks | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Alohi Gilman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keondre Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 67 |
| 4.8 |
| 0 |
| −2.5 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | −5.1 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 9 | 82 | 0 | 24% | +7.3 |
| Greg Dulcich | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 14% | +3.2 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 8% | +3.6 |
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 10 | 39 | 0 | 27% | −5.2 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 11% | −0.4 |
| Tahj Washington | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | −6.2 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +2.4 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Dee Eskridge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| Tanner Conner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Trader Jr. | 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Judon | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Grant | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benito Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
