2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · Lambeau Field

Carolina PanthersWinner

Green Bay Packers

GB -12.5 upsetU 43.5 ✓15 mph windPackers closed -12.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, GB +33% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:01CAR 16 — GB 13CAR ball · 3rd & 10CAR 67%

(:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:01GB +33% win prob(:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q4 · 0:46GB +18% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle right guard to GB 31 for 19 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Q4 · 11:00CAR +18% win prob(11:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 87-R.Doubs [11-N.Scourton].
Q3 · 10:38CAR +15% win prob(10:38) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 7:57GB Field goal
(7:57) 17-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: CAR 0 — GB 3
Q2 · 2:26CAR Touchdown
(2:26) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 7 — GB 3
Q2 · 0:05GB Field goal
(:05) 17-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: CAR 7 — GB 6
Q3 · 2:15CAR Touchdown
(2:15) 5-R.Dowdle left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-5-R.Dowdle, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Score after this play: CAR 13 — GB 6
Q4 · 2:35GB Touchdown
(2:35) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to CAR 1 for no gain (56-C.Rozeboom). Green Bay challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 13 — GB 13
Q4 · 0:01CAR Field goal
(:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Score after this play: CAR 16 — GB 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Packers
Offensive plays	54	63
Total yards	265	369 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.09 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	50%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	43%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	4/10	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Packers outgained Panthers 369–265 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

26/37, 273 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

5.9 expected points added · +9.1% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

11/20, 102 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.3 expected points added · -11.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Rico DowdleRB

25 att, 130 yds, 2 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

17 att, 87 yds, 1 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Romeo DoubsWR

7/10 for 91 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Christian WatsonWR

2/4 for 58 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 27	5	14	2:39	Punt
2	GB	GB 28	9	56	5:47	Fumble
3	CAR	CAR 16	15	64	8:39	Interception
4	GB	GB 20	9	58	5:02	Field goal +3
5	CAR	CAR 24	12	71	5:31	Touchdown +7
6	GB	GB 42	11	70	2:22	Field goal +3
7	GB	GB 32	10	43	4:26	Missed field goal
8	CAR	CAR 33	7	18	2:53	Punt
9	GB	GB 11	4	13	1:14	Interception
10	CAR	GB 38	9	35	4:15	Touchdown +6
11	GB	GB 29	14	58	6:27	Turnover on downs
12	CAR	CAR 13	5	23	3:21	Punt
13	GB	GB 29	13	71	4:52	Touchdown +7
14	CAR	CAR 29	10	40	2:32	Field goal +3

6 of 14 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 71 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	11/20	102	0	1	1	-3.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rico Dowdle	25	130	5.2	2	4.2
Chuba Hubbard	5	17	3.4	0	-0.3
Bryce Young	2	9	4.5	0	3.6
Jimmy Horn Jr.	1	7	7.0	0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tetairoa McMillan	4	6	46	32%	2.3
Xavier Legette	1	3	22	16%	-4.2
Rico Dowdle	2	3	11	16%	0.1
Jalen Coker	1	1	9	5%	0.7
Brycen Tremayne	1	1	8	5%	0.1
Ja'Tavion Sanders	1	1	5	5%	0.2
Jimmy Horn Jr.	1	2	1	11%	-1.3
Chuba Hubbard	0	1	0	5%	-0.5
Tommy Tremble	0	1	0	5%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Christian Rozeboom	7	8	0.0	0	0
Trevin Wallace	6	3	0.0	0	1
Tershawn Wharton	2	5	1.0	0	0
Lathan Ransom	3	3	0.0	0	0
Mike Jackson	5	0	0.0	0	0
Nic Scourton	2	3	0.0	0	0
Jaycee Horn	1	3	0.0	0	1
Derrick Brown	2	2	0.0	0	0
Tre'von Moehrig	2	2	0.0	1	2
Nick Scott	1	2	0.0	0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jordan Love	26/37	273	0	1	1	5.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	17	87	5.1	1	4.0
Emanuel Wilson	6	16	2.7	0	-1.4
Jordan Love	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5
Savion Williams	1	0	0.0	0	-5.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Romeo Doubs	7	10	91	29%	4.0
Christian Watson	2	4	58	11%	-0.8
Luke Musgrave	3	3	34	9%	1.0
Chris Brooks	2	2	24	6%	3.8
Tucker Kraft	2	3	20	9%	2.0
Josh Jacobs	4	5	13	14%	-1.6
Savion Williams	2	2	12	6%	0.8
Malik Heath	1	1	11	3%	3.0
Matthew Golden	2	3	9	9%	-2.0
Emanuel Wilson	1	2	1	6%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Xavier McKinney	3	6	1.0	1	1
Evan Williams	2	6	0.0	0	0
Edgerrin Cooper	3	5	0.0	0	0
Quay Walker	2	5	0.0	0	0
Devonte Wyatt	1	5	0.0	0	0
Keisean Nixon	4	1	0.0	0	0
Javon Bullard	3	1	0.0	0	0
Carrington Valentine	3	1	0.0	0	0
Micah Parsons	1	2	0.0	0	0
Emanuel Wilson	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -12.5
Closing total: 43.5
CAR moneyline: +650
GB moneyline: -1000

Packers closed -12.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 29 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 47°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: CAR 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Dave Canales vs Matt LaFleur

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.