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2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Panthers146 of 156 plays carry both curves
(:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Swing −33.4 for PackersExpected points −0.96 for PackersThe model had Panthers 6 points higher than the market did.play 153
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01GB +33% win prob(:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
4th · 0:46GB +18% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle right guard to GB 31 for 19 yards (29-X.McKinney).
4th · 11:00CAR +18% win prob(11:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 87-R.Doubs [11-N.Scourton].
3rd · 10:38CAR +15% win prob(10:38) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
3rd · 6:42CAR +14% win prob(6:42) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Moehrig [95-D.Brown] at CAR 26. 7-T.Moehrig ran ob at GB 38 for 36 yards (23-E.Wilson).
2nd · 13:00CAR +14% win prob(13:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right intended for 17-X.Legette INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at GB -8. Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Fitzgerald's 49-yard field goal with 0:01 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd7:57Brandon McManus·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+30–3
4th0:01Ryan Fitzgerald·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+316–13
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryPackers
Panthers2–6Packers
265Total yards369
4.9Yards per play5.9
50%Success rate51%
40%Third-down rate54%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays6
17First downs20
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Packers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Panthers: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.04Packers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Panthers: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.16Packers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Panthers: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.13Packers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 54 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Packers’s 63 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Packers 5.
NotePackers outgained Panthers 369-265 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CAR's pass rate over expected, −16.9 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's early-down pass rate, 38.1%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points.
GB's blitz rate sent, 34.8%, is past their previous high of 31.1% in week 6 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 20 pts
leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Packers8.7%
inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
NoteGB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 34.8%, 10.6 points above their season mean of 24.2% and 1.4 times their own 7.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Ryan Fitzgerald+27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q4 0:01 · Panthers · 3rd & 10 at GB 31 · gained nothing · +0.96 EP · +27.3% win probability
144 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 76 yards from the CAR 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
47%
Yards
634
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.2368%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1841%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.4047%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.1544%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.150%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0840%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter29 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 36
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Panthers 16
The period ended12 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Packers 28
2nd quarter45 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 12
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Panthers0Packers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Panthers 14
Panthers6Packers3
Panthers7Packers3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Packers 5
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Panthers7Packers6
Field goal15 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Panthers 8
3rd quarter38 plays
No good10 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Panthers 25
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Packers 49
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Packers 24
Panthers13Packers6
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Packers 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Panthers 37
4th quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended9 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Panthers 8
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Panthers 26
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Panthers13Packers12
Panthers13Packers13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Panthers 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Panthers16Packers13
Field goal14 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Packers 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -12.5
Closing total
43.5
Panthers moneyline
+650
Packers moneyline
-1000
Packers closed -12.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 29 — under by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 46°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Packers 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Matt LaFleur
3rd · 1:28
GB +12% win prob
(1:28) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 87-R.Doubs pushed ob at CAR 42 for 28 yards (32-T.Wallace). Penalty on CAR-94-A.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on CAR, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
4th · 5:50GB +11% win prob(5:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 18-M.Heath to CAR 32 for 11 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).
