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2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · Paycor Stadium

Chicago BearsWinner

47

Cincinnati Bengals

42

CHI -3 ✓O 51.5 ✓

Chicago Bears 47–42. Biggest swing: Q4 0:25, CIN +55% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CIN ↑CHI ↓
Q4 · 0:25CHI 47 — CIN 42CHI ball · 1st & 10CIN 58%

(:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 84-C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:25CIN +55% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 84-C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 15:00CIN +20% win prob8-C.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to CIN 2. 15-C.Jones for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 1:18CIN +18% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 15:00CHI +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco sacked at CIN 38 for -10 yards (94-A.Booker). FUMBLES (94-A.Booker) [94-A.Booker], RECOVERED by CHI-99-G.Dexter at CIN 38.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 15:00CIN Touchdown

    8-C.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to CIN 2. 15-C.Jones for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — CIN 7
  2. Q1 · 8:50CHI Touchdown

    (8:50) (Shotgun) 75-O.Trapilo reported in as eligible. 2-D.Moore pass short right to 18-C.Williams for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — CIN 7
  3. Q1 · 5:46CIN Field goal

    (5:46) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: CHI 7 — CIN 10
  4. Q2 · 15:00CHI Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 14 — CIN 10
  5. Q2 · 5:51CIN Field goal

    (5:51) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: CHI 14 — CIN 13
  6. Q2 · 1:33CHI Field goal

    (1:33) 8-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 17 — CIN 13
  7. Q2 · 1:18CIN Touchdown

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 17 — CIN 20
  8. Q3 · 8:14CHI Touchdown

    (8:14) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 24 — CIN 20
  9. Q3 · 5:22CIN Touchdown

    (5:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 24 — CIN 27
  10. Q3 · 2:03CHI Touchdown

    (2:03) 38-B.Brown left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 31 — CIN 27
  11. Q4 · 12:08CHI Field goal

    (12:08) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 34 — CIN 27
  12. Q4 · 5:03CHI Touchdown

    (5:03) 2-D.Moore left end to CIN 1 for 16 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt; 22-G.Stone). Cincinnati challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 2-D.Moore left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 41 — CIN 27
  13. Q4 · 1:47CIN Touchdown

    (1:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 86-N.Fant for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-D.Hardy]. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: CHI 41 — CIN 35
  14. Q4 · 0:58CIN Touchdown

    (:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 41 — CIN 42
  15. Q4 · 0:25CHI Touchdown

    (:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 84-C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CHI 47 — CIN 42

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsBengals
Offensive plays7765
Total yards576 (edge)498
Yards per play7.57.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.45 (edge)0.23
Success rate56% (edge)49%
Dropback rate58%78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.46 (edge)0.33
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.44 (edge)-0.12
Third downs8/15 (edge)5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)12 (edge)11
First downs gained on snaps29 (edge)26
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)4

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe FlaccoQB

31/47, 470 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

16.7 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

20/34, 280 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.0 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Kyle MonangaiRB

26 att, 176 yds, 0 TD

9.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

5 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

7/9 for 121 yds, 2 TD

20% of team targets · 11.6 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Colston LovelandTE

6/7 for 118 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CIN—200:11Defensive touchdown +7
2CHICHI 2714686:05Touchdown +7
3CINCIN 458323:03Field goal +3
4CHICHI 2613745:47Touchdown +7
5CINCIN 31582:42Punt
6CHICHI 18482:05Punt
7CINCIN 1511854:20Field goal +3
8CHICHI 3512694:18Field goal +3
9CINCIN 374630:17Touchdown +7
10CHICHI 2011511:09Missed field goal
11CINCIN 37100:03End of half
12CHICHI 2314776:49Touchdown +7
13CINCIN 318692:52Touchdown +7
14CHICHI 268743:22Touchdown +7
15CINCIN 275112:03Fumble
16CHICIN 385202:51Field goal +3
17CINCIN 2614486:10Missed field goal
18CHICHI 443561:00Touchdown +7
19CINCIN 339552:11Defensive touchdown
20CHICHI 4470:27Punt
21CINCIN 455570:32Touchdown +8
22CINCIN 438570:49Touchdown +7
23CHICHI 286720:37Touchdown +6
24CINCIN 354130:17Interception

15 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams20/3428030214.0
Tyson Bagent1/1200001.4
DJ Moore1/121003.9
Cole Kmet0/10000-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyle Monangai261766.809.0
Caleb Williams55310.602.1
Brittain Brown5377.412.6
DJ Moore11717.012.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Colston Loveland67118221%10.5
DJ Moore4672018%3.5
Olamide Zaccheaus6858124%5.1
Caleb Williams222216%5.3
Kyle Monangai3522015%-0.0
Cole Kmet121006%0.8
Brittain Brown01003%-0.2
Rome Odunze03009%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tremaine Edmunds540.011
C.J. Gardner-Johnson511.000
Jaquan Brisker240.000
Tyrique Stevenson600.001
T.J. Edwards140.001
Nahshon Wright220.012
Kevin Byard400.000
D'Marco Jackson120.000
Travis Homer200.000
Noah Sewell200.000

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco31/4747042316.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chase Brown11373.40-1.2
Samaje Perine155.000.1
Andrei Iosivas144.00-0.2
Tahj Brooks111.00-0.5
Joe Flacco1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tee Higgins79121220%11.6
Ja'Marr Chase68111018%5.6
Chase Brown81475031%-2.6
Andrei Iosivas5766116%5.5
Tanner Hudson224204%3.6
Noah Fant232817%2.7
Mitchell Tinsley122704%2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Battle570.000
Barrett Carter550.001
Daxton Hill430.000
Geno Stone430.000
Myles Murphy240.001
Oren Burks330.001
Demetrius Knight Jr.240.001
Tedarrell Slaton140.000
DJ Turner II220.001
B.J. Hill311.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CHI -3
Closing total
51.5
CHI moneyline
-162
CIN moneyline
+136

Bears closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 89 — over by 37.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
50°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
CHI 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches
Ben Johnson vs Zac Taylor