For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Bears189 of 204 plays carry both curves
(:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 84-C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −54.9 for BengalsExpected points −6.53 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 5 points higher than the market did.play 197
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:25CIN +55% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 84-C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 15:00CIN +20% win prob8-C.Santos kicks 63 yards from CHI 35 to CIN 2. 15-C.Jones for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:18CIN +18% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep left to 5-T.Higgins for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 15:00CHI +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco sacked at CIN 38 for -10 yards (94-A.Booker). FUMBLES (94-A.Booker) [94-A.Booker], RECOVERED by CHI-99-G.Dexter at CIN 38.
4th · 0:58CIN +14% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:31CIN +13% win prob(7:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 1-J.Chase to CHI 6 for 36 yards (31-K.Byard).
4th · 1:43
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Colston Loveland's 58-yard touchdown catch with 0:25 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st15:00Charlie Jones·98-yd return TD98-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+70–7
1st8:50Caleb Williams·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom DJ Moorefrom DJ Moore+77–7
1st5:46Evan McPherson·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap W.Wagner+37–10
4th1:47Noah Fant·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco · two-point good+841–35
4th0:58Andrei Iosivas·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe Flacco+741–42
4th0:25Colston Loveland·58-yd TD catch58-yard touchdown catchfrom Caleb Williamsfrom Caleb Williams · two-point no goodLead never changed again+647–42
15 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryBengals
Bears8–1Bengals
576Total yards498
7.5Yards per play7.7
56%Success rate49%
53%Third-down rate50%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
12Explosive plays11
29First downs26
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers4
The read
Bears ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.45Bears: +0.45 expected points added per play
+0.23Bengals: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.46Bears: +0.46 expected points added per play
+0.33Bengals: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.44Bears: +0.44 expected points added per play
−0.12Bengals: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 77 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Bengals’s 65 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Bears 8, Bengals 7.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs 0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's early-down pass rate, 77.4%, is past their previous high of 74.5% in week 5 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 8.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −3.2 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Bengals15.6%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteCIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.4%, 15.9 points above their season mean of 61.4% and 1.9 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Williams pass+58% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 84-C.Loveland for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:25 · Bears · 1st & 10 at CHI 42 · gained 58 · +6.53 EP · +57.8% win probability
187 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 204 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 199. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
15 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 77 yards from the CHI 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
204 of 204 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
204
EPA per play
+0.26
Success rate
52%
Yards
1073
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.3381%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.5651%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.0543%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.1950%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0650%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
204 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
204 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Bears0Bengals6
Bears0Bengals7
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Bears6Bengals7
Bears7Bengals7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Bengals 2
Bears7Bengals10
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Bears 23
The period ended14 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bengals 20
2nd quarter59 plays
Bears13Bengals10
Bears14Bengals10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Bengals 39
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 26
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bears14Bengals13
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Bears 6
Bears17Bengals13
Field goal16 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Bengals 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Bears17Bengals19
Bears17Bengals20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Bears 44
No good13 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bengals 29
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Bears23Bengals20
Bears24Bengals20
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Bengals 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bears24Bengals26
Bears24Bengals27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Bears 2
Bears30Bengals27
Bears31Bengals27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bengals 22
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 44
4th quarter69 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost1 play
Bears34Bengals27
Field goal5 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Bengals 16
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
No good14 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bears 26
Bears40Bengals27
Bears41Bengals27
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bears 44 to the Bengals 17
Intercepted11 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Bears 5
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 4 to the Bears 9
Bears41Bengals33
Bears41Bengals35
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Bears 23
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bears41Bengals41
Bears41Bengals42
Touchdown10 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bears47Bengals42
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 42
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Bengals 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
