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2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · NRG Stadium
18
15
Denver Broncos 18–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:21, DEN +18% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:21) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
How the points landed
(:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: DEN 0 — HOU 3(7:15) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: DEN 0 — HOU 6(4:58) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Hunter]. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 7 — HOU 6(1:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: DEN 7 — HOU 9(:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. ** Injury Update: DEN-99-Z.Allen has returned to the game.
Score after this play: DEN 7 — HOU 12(9:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: DEN 7 — HOU 15(12:34) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 12-R.Harvey for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: DEN 15 — HOU 15(:03) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on HOU-11-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: DEN 18 — HOU 15Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Broncos | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 62 | 72 |
| Total yards | 273 (edge) | 268 |
| Yards per play | 4.4 (edge) | 3.7 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.09 (edge) | -0.15 |
| Success rate | 32% (edge) | 29% |
| Dropback rate | 65% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.04 | -0.03 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.18 (edge) | -0.37 |
| Third downs | 6/15 (edge) | 3/17 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 (edge) | 2 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 (edge) | 13 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
18/37, 173 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-3.5 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected
Passing · HOU
17/30, 137 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-5.7 expected points added · -13.1% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 36 | 15 | 32 | 7:36 | Missed field goal | |
| 2 | DEN | DEN 41 | 8 | 26 | 2:57 | Missed field goal | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 41 | 8 | 57 | 4:23 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | DEN | DEN 35 | 5 | 0 | 0:21 | Punt | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 21 | 4 | 8 | 1:13 | Punt | |
| 6 | DEN | DEN 14 | 2 | 3 | 0:54 | Interception | |
| 7 | HOU | HOU 49 | 10 | 38 | 5:25 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | DEN | DEN 30 | 9 | 70 | 2:19 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 27 | 10 | 38 | 3:00 | Field goal +3 | |
| 10 | DEN | DEN 20 | 6 | 6 | 0:50 | Punt | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 34 | 4 | -1 | 0:23 | Punt | |
| 12 | HOU | DEN 30 | 4 | 9 | 0:39 | Field goal +3 | |
| 13 | DEN | DEN 24 | 7 | 13 | 2:51 | Punt | |
| 14 | HOU | DEN 47 | 6 | 24 | 2:51 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | DEN | DEN 32 | 5 | -1 | 2:25 | Punt | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 44 | 4 | 8 | 1:25 | Punt | |
| 17 | DEN | DEN 12 | 4 | 9 | 2:35 | Punt | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 12 | 4 | 7 | 1:34 | Punt | |
| 19 | DEN | DEN 39 | 9 | 63 | 3:51 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 20 | HOU | HOU 29 | 7 | 19 | 1:45 | Punt | |
| 21 | DEN | DEN 20 | 4 | 2 | 0:57 | Punt | |
| 22 | HOU | HOU 36 | 5 | 18 | 2:34 | Punt | |
| 23 | DEN | DEN 20 | 4 | 4 | 1:08 | Punt | |
| 24 | HOU | HOU 20 | 4 | 7 | 1:24 | Punt | |
| 25 | DEN | DEN 20 | 9 | 30 | 3:26 | Punt | |
| 26 | HOU | HOU 13 | 4 | 4 | 0:24 | Punt | |
| 27 | DEN | DEN 36 | 6 | 48 | 0:50 | Field goal +3 |
8 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 70 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 18/37 | 173 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 | 1.8 |
| RJ Harvey | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 5 | 5 | 51 | 1 | 15% | 2.8 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 18% | -2.7 |
| Troy Franklin | 4 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 29% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 1 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Abrams-Draine |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 17/30 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5.7 |
| C.J. Stroud | 6/10 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 33 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| -2.4 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 6% | 1.0 |
| Pat Bryant | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 9% | 2.9 |
| Michael Bandy | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | 2.1 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9% | -0.8 |
| Evan Engram | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -3.2 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | -0.7 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Riley Moss | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Allen | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dondrea Tillman | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Strnad | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Roach | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| Nick Chubb | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Woody Marks | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 | -3.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | -0.2 |
| British Brooks | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.4 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 | 21% | 1.8 |
| Nico Collins | 7 | 11 | 75 | 0 | 28% | 4.1 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 13% | 1.1 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 21% | 0.3 |
| Jayden Higgins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | -1.4 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5% | -1.0 |
| Woody Marks | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8% | -1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamari Lassiter | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley Jr. | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| M.J. Stewart | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tommy Togiai | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Hansen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
