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3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Broncos173 of 188 plays carry both curves
(1:21) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
Swing +17.7 for TexansExpected points +0.92 for TexansThe model had Texans 2 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:21DEN +18% win prob(1:21) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
4th · 0:44HOU +18% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles left end ran ob at HOU 36 for 25 yards (29-M.Stewart).
4th · 1:00DEN +16% win prob(1:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to DEN 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 36 for 8 yards (35-J.Hansen).
2nd · 0:46HOU +16% win prob(:46) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to DEN 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-22-J.Smith at DEN 30.
4th · 2:18HOU +15% win prob(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 13-P.Bryant to DEN 48 for 13 yards (29-M.Stewart).
2nd · 4:58HOU +14% win prob(4:58) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Hunter].
1st · 4:34
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 34-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st0:07Ka'imi Fairbairn·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+30–3
2nd7:15Ka'imi Fairbairn·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+30–6
2nd4:58Courtland Sutton·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+77–6
2nd1:55Ka'imi Fairbairn·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+37–9
2nd0:02Ka'imi Fairbairn·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+37–12
3rd9:22Ka'imi Fairbairn·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+37–15
4th12:34RJ Harvey·27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix · two-point good+815–15
4th0:03Wil Lutz·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+318–15
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryTexans
Broncos7–1Texans
273Total yards268
4.4Yards per play3.7
32%Success rate29%
40%Third-down rate18%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays2
16First downs13
1Sacks taken4
1Turnovers0
The read
Broncos ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Broncos: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.15Texans: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Broncos: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.03Texans: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Broncos: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.37Texans: −0.37 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 62 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Texans’s 72 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Texans 5.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's play-action rate turned over: 31.0% in week 8 against 17.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Texans10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 12.8%, 9.7 points below their season mean of 22.5% and 1.1 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
60Luke WattenbergC · Every snap100%63 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%63 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%63 snaps
63Alex PalczewskiT · Every snap100%63 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%63 snaps
10Bo NixQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time92%58 snaps
11Troy FranklinWR · Heavy rotation79%50 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Heavy rotation73%46 snaps
13Pat BryantWR · Heavy rotation57%36 snaps
1Evan EngramTE · Heavy rotation51%32 snaps
27J.K. DobbinsRB · Rotational46%29 snaps
12RJ HarveyRB · Rotational32%20 snaps
28Tyler BadieRB · Situational22%14 snaps
46Adam PrenticeFB · Situational16%10 snaps
5Trent SherfieldWR · Situational13%8 snaps
83Michael BandyWR · Situational10%6 snaps
89Marcedes LewisTE · Situational10%6 snaps
Inactive · 7
Pat Surtain IICBSai'vion JonesDEJordan JacksonDEJaleel McLaughlinRBP.J. LockeSSNate AdkinsTEMarvin Mims Jr.WR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Nix pass+20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 13-P.Bryant to DEN 48 for 13 yards (29-M.Stewart).
Q4 2:18 · Broncos · 3rd & 11 at DEN 35 · gained 13 · +1.90 EP · +19.5% win probability
171 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 70 yards from the DEN 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
32%
Yards
541
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1273%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0667%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1457%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.5067%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.3067%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.4140%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
No good15 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Broncos 23
No good8 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Texans 33
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Broncos0Texans3
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Broncos 1
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter62 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 29
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Broncos 17
Broncos0Texans6
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Broncos 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Broncos6Texans6
Broncos7Texans6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Texans 30
Broncos7Texans9
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Broncos 20
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 32
The period ended5 plays
Broncos7Texans12
Field goal7 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 17
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 37
Broncos7Texans15
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Broncos 20
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 44 to the Broncos 48
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Broncos 21
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Texans 19
The period ended3 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Texans 48
4th quarter57 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Broncos13Texans15
Broncos15Texans15
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Texans 27
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Texans 48
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 22
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Texans 44
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 24
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 20 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Texans 17
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Broncos18Texans15
Field goal9 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Texans 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
