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2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · NRG Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

18

Houston Texans

15

HOU -1.5 upsetU 40.5 ✓Dome

Denver Broncos 18–15 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:21, DEN +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑DEN ↓
Q4 · 1:21DEN 15 — HOU 15DEN ball · 4th & 8DEN 53%

(1:21) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:21DEN +18% win prob(1:21) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.
  2. Q4 · 0:44HOU +18% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles left end ran ob at HOU 36 for 25 yards (29-M.Stewart).
  3. Q4 · 1:00DEN +16% win prob(1:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to DEN 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy to DEN 36 for 8 yards (35-J.Hansen).
  4. Q2 · 0:46HOU +16% win prob(:46) 6-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to DEN 25, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 83-M.Bandy MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-22-J.Smith at DEN 30.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 0:07HOU Field goal

    (:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — HOU 3
  2. Q2 · 7:15HOU Field goal

    (7:15) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: DEN 0 — HOU 6
  3. Q2 · 4:58DEN Touchdown

    (4:58) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Hunter]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — HOU 6
  4. Q2 · 1:55HOU Field goal

    (1:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — HOU 9
  5. Q2 · 0:02HOU Field goal

    (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. ** Injury Update: DEN-99-Z.Allen has returned to the game.

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — HOU 12
  6. Q3 · 9:22HOU Field goal

    (9:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — HOU 15
  7. Q4 · 12:34DEN Touchdown

    (12:34) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 12-R.Harvey for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: DEN 15 — HOU 15
  8. Q4 · 0:03DEN Field goal

    (:03) 3-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. Penalty on HOU-11-T.Smith, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: DEN 18 — HOU 15

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosTexans
Offensive plays6272
Total yards273 (edge)268
Yards per play4.4 (edge)3.7
Expected points added / play-0.09 (edge)-0.15
Success rate32% (edge)29%
Dropback rate65%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.04-0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.18 (edge)-0.37
Third downs6/15 (edge)3/17
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps16 (edge)13
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers10 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

18/37, 173 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.5 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

17/30, 137 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.7 expected points added · -13.1% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

J.K. DobbinsRB

15 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Nick ChubbRB

11 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Dalton SchultzTE

6/8 for 77 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

7/11 for 75 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 3615327:36Missed field goal
2DENDEN 418262:57Missed field goal
3HOUHOU 418574:23Field goal +3
4DENDEN 35500:21Punt
5HOUHOU 21481:13Punt
6DENDEN 14230:54Interception
7HOUHOU 4910385:25Field goal +3
8DENDEN 309702:19Touchdown +7
9HOUHOU 2710383:00Field goal +3
10DENDEN 20660:50Punt
11HOUHOU 344-10:23Punt
12HOUDEN 30490:39Field goal +3
13DENDEN 247132:51Punt
14HOUDEN 476242:51Field goal +3
15DENDEN 325-12:25Punt
16HOUHOU 44481:25Punt
17DENDEN 12492:35Punt
18HOUHOU 12471:34Punt
19DENDEN 399633:51Touchdown +8
20HOUHOU 297191:45Punt
21DENDEN 20420:57Punt
22HOUHOU 365182:34Punt
23DENDEN 20441:08Punt
24HOUHOU 20471:24Punt
25DENDEN 209303:26Punt
26HOUHOU 13440:24Punt
27DENDEN 366480:50Field goal +3

8 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 70 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix18/37173211-3.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
J.K. Dobbins15614.10-1.7
Bo Nix33612.001.8
RJ Harvey252.50-0.9
Adam Prentice122.00-0.2
Troy Franklin2-4-2.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
RJ Harvey5551115%2.8
Courtland Sutton1630118%-2.7
Troy Franklin41027029%-2.4
Adam Trautman222506%1.0
Pat Bryant232009%2.9
Michael Bandy111603%2.1
Tyler Badie23609%-0.8
Evan Engram03009%-3.2
J.K. Dobbins11-203%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Singleton460.000
Talanoa Hufanga540.002
Dre Greenlaw171.000
Kris Abrams-Draine520.000
Brandon Jones330.001
Zach Allen411.002
Riley Moss500.001
Dondrea Tillman130.500
Malcolm Roach030.500
Justin Strnad210.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Davis Mills17/30137002-5.7
C.J. Stroud6/10790023.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Nick Chubb11343.10-3.0
Woody Marks10272.70-3.6
C.J. Stroud2126.000.9
Davis Mills273.50-0.2
British Brooks200.00-1.4
Jaylin Noel1-3-3.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dalton Schultz6877021%1.8
Nico Collins71175028%4.1
Xavier Hutchinson3530013%1.1
Christian Kirk4826021%0.3
Jayden Higgins11403%-0.1
Harrison Bryant12205%-1.0
Dare Ogunbowale11203%-1.4
Woody Marks03008%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kamari Lassiter630.002
Azeez Al-Shaair450.000
Jalen Pitre160.000
Henry To'oTo'o250.000
Derek Stingley Jr.220.002
M.J. Stewart310.001
Danielle Hunter120.001
Sheldon Rankins120.000
Tommy Togiai120.000
Jake Hansen210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -1.5
Closing total
40.5
DEN moneyline
+105
HOU moneyline
-125

Texans closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 33 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
DEN 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs DeMeco Ryans