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2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

20

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

27

IND -3.5 upsetU 51.5 ✓

Pittsburgh Steelers 27–20. Biggest swing: Q2 5:21, IND +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PIT ↑IND ↓
Q2 · 5:21IND 7 — PIT 7IND ball · 2nd & 5IND 66%

(5:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 41-P.Wilson at IND 31. 41-P.Wilson to IND 14 for 17 yards (60-T.Bortolini).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 5:21IND +15% win prob(5:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 41-P.Wilson at IND 31. 41-P.Wilson to IND 14 for 17 yards (60-T.Bortolini).
  2. Q1 · 6:03PIT +14% win prob(6:03) 3-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-26-B.Echols at IND 11.
  3. Q3 · 3:15IND +12% win prob(3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Sawyer (41-P.Wilson) at PIT 40. 33-J.Sawyer to PIT 44 for 4 yards (17-D.Jones).
  4. Q3 · 4:28PIT +9% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to PIT 44 for 16 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:07IND Touchdown

    (8:07) 17-D.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — PIT 0
  2. Q2 · 6:13PIT Touchdown

    (6:13) 30-J.Warren left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — PIT 7
  3. Q2 · 4:27PIT Touchdown

    (4:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — PIT 14
  4. Q2 · 0:03PIT Field goal

    (:03) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: IND 7 — PIT 17
  5. Q4 · 14:21PIT Touchdown

    (14:21) 30-J.Warren left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — PIT 24
  6. Q4 · 10:50IND Field goal

    (10:50) 12-M.Badgley 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — PIT 24
  7. Q4 · 6:55PIT Field goal

    (6:55) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — PIT 27
  8. Q4 · 4:35IND Touchdown

    (4:35) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 1-J.Downs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 17 — PIT 27
  9. Q4 · 0:13IND Field goal

    (:13) 12-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 20 — PIT 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsSteelers
Offensive plays7360
Total yards368 (edge)226
Yards per play5.0 (edge)3.8
Expected points added / play-0.12-0.11 (edge)
Success rate51% (edge)40%
Dropback rate75%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.30-0.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.43 (edge)-0.13
Third downs6/14 (edge)4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)3 (edge)0
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)16
Sacks taken53 (edge)
Turnovers51 (edge)

Colts outgained Steelers 368–226 but lost the turnover battle 5–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Daniel JonesQB

31/50, 342 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-16.3 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Aaron RodgersQB

25/35, 203 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.0 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

14 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

16 att, 31 yds, 2 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

9/12 for 115 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

6/13 for 115 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PITPIT 39561:39Punt
2INDIND 2114795:16Touchdown +7
3PITPIT 265-42:15Punt
4PITIND 11471:33Turnover on downs
5INDIND 514477:56Fumble
6PITPIT 4413415:12Touchdown +7
7INDIND 25350:57Interception
8PITIND 143140:50Touchdown +7
9INDIND 30571:03Punt
10PITPIT 1812643:19Field goal +3
11INDIND 269124:43Punt
12PITPIT 206233:14Punt
13INDIND 208453:54Interception
14PITPIT 448563:53Touchdown +7
15INDIND 259323:31Field goal +3
16PITPIT 29572:17Punt
17INDIND 32220:30Fumble
18PITIND 34661:07Field goal +3
19INDIND 2411712:21Touchdown +7
20PITIND 443110:54Fumble
21INDIND 243200:52Interception
22PITPIT 394-51:43Punt
23INDIND 127480:52Field goal +3
24PITIND 48200:09End of game

9 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 79 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones31/50342135-16.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor14453.200.9
Daniel Jones341.314.5
Ameer Abdullah133.00-0.3
Rodney Thomas133.002.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Michael Pittman912115025%2.5
Alec Pierce613115027%1.3
Josh Downs6957119%-1.5
Tyler Warren5726015%-1.2
Jonathan Taylor221204%0.0
Tyler Goodson12804%-0.4
Adonai Mitchell11702%-0.2
Ameer Abdullah11202%-0.6
Mo Alie-Cox01002%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Germaine Pratt440.001
Nick Cross330.000
Zaire Franklin420.000
Laiatu Latu422.500
Neville Gallimore140.500
Mekhi Blackmon410.000
Jaylon Jones220.001
DeForest Buckner220.000
Grover Stewart210.000
Kenny Moore II120.001

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers25/352031030.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jaylen Warren16311.92-4.2
Kaleb Johnson144.00-0.1
Connor Heyward144.001.6
Aaron Rodgers200.00-0.7
Kenneth Gainwell3-1-0.30-0.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Calvin Austin III5656017%3.6
Darnell Washington4643017%-0.2
Kenneth Gainwell4535014%0.8
Pat Freiermuth3427111%3.4
Jonnu Smith3525014%0.5
Kaleb Johnson11903%0.7
DK Metcalf246011%-2.2
Roman Wilson12406%-3.9
Jaylen Warren22-206%-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Payton Wilson940.012
Joey Porter Jr.621.014
Brandin Echols420.001
Patrick Queen050.001
Keeanu Benton231.000
Jalen Ramsey500.000
Darius Slay410.000
Kyle Dugger130.000
Alex Highsmith312.001
Cameron Heyward040.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -3.5
Closing total
51.5
IND moneyline
-185
PIT moneyline
+154

Colts closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 47 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
56°F, wind 2 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
IND 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Mike Tomlin