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Indianapolis Colts 20 at Pittsburgh Steelers 27. Final.
Colts -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 9
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Colts 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 5:21, 2nd and 5, on Payton Wilson — 15.1 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:21 · 2nd and 5
Payton Wilson
Steelers
(5:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 41-P.Wilson at IND 31. 41-P.Wilson to IND 14 for 17 yards (60-T.Bortolini).
U 51.5 ✓
Colts closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27–20. Biggest swing: Q2 5:21, Steelers +15.1% win probability on one snap.
15.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetSteelersQ1 6:03(6:03) 3-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-26-B.Echols at IND 11.
13.7pts
Jack SawyerSteelersQ3 3:15(3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Sawyer (41-P.Wilson) at PIT 40. 33-J.Sawyer to PIT 44 for 4 yards (17-D.Jones).
11.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 5 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.43 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Steelers at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Colts172 of 181 plays carry both curves
(5:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 41-P.Wilson at IND 31. 41-P.Wilson to IND 14 for 17 yards (60-T.Bortolini).
Swing +15.1 for SteelersExpected points +5.88 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 16 points higher than the market did.play 65
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:21IND +15% win prob(5:21) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 1-J.Downs INTERCEPTED by 41-P.Wilson at IND 31. 41-P.Wilson to IND 14 for 17 yards (60-T.Bortolini).
1st · 6:03PIT +14% win prob(6:03) 3-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-26-B.Echols at IND 11.
3rd · 3:15IND +12% win prob(3:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Sawyer (41-P.Wilson) at PIT 40. 33-J.Sawyer to PIT 44 for 4 yards (17-D.Jones).
3rd · 4:28PIT +9% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to PIT 44 for 16 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
1st · 8:07PIT +9% win prob(8:07) 17-D.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:20IND +9% win prob(4:20) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Washington.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Pat Freiermuth's 12-yard touchdown catch with 4:27 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th10:50Mike Badgley·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+310–24
4th6:55Chris Boswell·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+310–27
4th4:35Josh Downs·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+717–27
4th0:13Mike Badgley·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+320–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categorySteelers
Colts6–3Steelers
368Total yards226
5.0Yards per play3.8
51%Success rate40%
43%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays0
23First downs16
5Sacks taken3
5Turnovers1
The read
Colts ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Colts: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.11Steelers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.30Colts: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.10Steelers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.43Colts: +0.43 expected points added per play
−0.13Steelers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 73 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Steelers’s 60 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Colts 2, Steelers 6.
NoteColts outgained Steelers 368-226 but lost the turnover battle 5-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's early-down pass rate, 77.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 66.7% in week 8.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
high through week 9Against their seasonOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, +11.4 pts, is past their previous high of +4.1 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
PIT's blitz rate sent turned over: 50.0% in week 8 against 25.5% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Steelers16.4%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
NoteIND's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.8%, 21.5 points above their season mean of 56.3% and 2.2 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
8 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Waitman punts+18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:03) 3-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to IND 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by PIT-26-B.Echols at IND 11.
Q1 6:03 · Steelers · 4th & 14 at PIT 22 · gained nothing · +7.19 EP · +18.0% win probability
170 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 79 yards from the IND 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
47%
Yards
593
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1678%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.1765%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.1271%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR12-0.2158%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0688%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.2150%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Steelers 45
Colts6Steelers0
Colts7Steelers0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Steelers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Steelers 29
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Colts 11 to the Colts 4
The period ended9 plays, from the Colts 5 to the Colts 25
2nd quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Steelers 38
Colts7Steelers6
Colts7Steelers7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Steelers 44 to the Colts 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 30
Colts7Steelers13
Colts7Steelers14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Colts 12
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 37
Colts7Steelers17
Field goal14 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Colts 7
3rd quarter30 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 38
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 43
Intercepted9 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Steelers 35
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 44 to the Colts 14
4th quarter63 plays
Colts7Steelers23
Colts7Steelers24
Touchdown3 plays
Colts10Steelers24
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Steelers 33
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Steelers 36
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Colts 41
Colts10Steelers27
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Colts 19
Colts16Steelers27
Colts17Steelers27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Steelers 4
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Colts 44 to the Colts 37
Intercepted3 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Colts 44
Punt6 plays
Colts20Steelers27
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Steelers 35
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
