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2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

30

Las Vegas Raiders

29

JAX -2.5 no coverO 43.5 ✓Dome

Jacksonville Jaguars 30–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 0:16, JAX +45% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4LV ↑JAX ↓
OT · 0:16JAX 30 — LV 29LV ballJAX 55%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-G.Smith pass to 17-T.Lockett is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 0:16JAX +45% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-G.Smith pass to 17-T.Lockett is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
  2. OT · 3:24JAX +44% win prob39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
  3. Q4 · 0:10JAX +43% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 29 for -5 yards (sack split by 41-J.Hines-Allen and 90-E.Ogbah).
  4. OT · 0:20JAX +43% win prob(:20) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 0:39LV Touchdown

    (:39) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers (6-G.Newsome). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 0 — LV 6
  2. Q2 · 0:04JAX Field goal

    (:04) 39-C.Little 68 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 3 — LV 6
  3. Q3 · 9:57JAX Field goal

    (9:57) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 6 — LV 6
  4. Q3 · 6:29LV Field goal

    (6:29) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. Penalty on LV-70-S.Forsythe, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-44-T.Walker, Disqualification, offsetting.

    Score after this play: JAX 6 — LV 9
  5. Q4 · 14:55JAX Touchdown

    (14:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 13 — LV 9
  6. Q4 · 9:45LV Touchdown

    (9:45) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 13 — LV 16
  7. Q4 · 4:10JAX Touchdown

    (4:10) 33-B.Tuten up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 20 — LV 16
  8. Q4 · 2:00LV Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 20 — LV 23
  9. Q4 · 0:20JAX Field goal

    (:20) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 23 — LV 23
  10. OT · 3:26JAX Touchdown

    (3:26) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 30 — LV 23
  11. OT · 0:20LV Touchdown

    (:20) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 30 — LV 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsRaiders
Offensive plays7661
Total yards367 (edge)331
Yards per play4.85.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.16 (edge)0.14
Success rate51%52% (edge)
Dropback rate50%72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.060.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.38 (edge)-0.14
Third downs9/167/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)23
Sacks taken1 (edge)2
Turnovers11

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Geno SmithQB

29/39, 284 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

11.4 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

23/34, 220 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-0.8 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

22 att, 84 yds, 0 TD

6.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Ashton JeantyRB

13 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Brock BowersTE

12/13 for 127 yds, 3 TD

34% of team targets · 12.9 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Parker WashingtonWR

8/9 for 90 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 40541:31Punt
2LVLV 146221:58Punt
3JAXJAX 17177610:27Interception
4LVLV 2010434:36Turnover on downs
5JAXJAX 3710375:49Punt
6LVLV 514885:04Touchdown +6
7JAXJAX 315190:35Field goal +3
8LVLV 29330:52Interception
9JAXLV 327174:15Field goal +3
10LVJAX 439273:27Field goal +3
11JAXJAX 3115696:36Touchdown +7
12LVLV 3111545:12Touchdown +7
13JAXJAX 2611595:32Touchdown +7
14LVLV 387622:14Touchdown +7
15JAXJAX 289421:36Field goal +3
16LVLV 342-50:16Turnover on downs
17JAXLV 4412446:36Touchdown +7
18LVJAX 4510373:08Touchdown +6

11 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 88 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence23/34220011-0.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne22843.806.2
Bhayshul Tuten9293.211.8
Trevor Lawrence9242.722.7
LeQuint Allen Jr.11010.001.9
Dyami Brown144.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Parker Washington8990027%4.8
Brian Thomas Jr.3555015%3.8
Travis Etienne5531015%0.8
Dyami Brown3725021%-7.8
Tim Jones111503%1.1
Hunter Long13609%-0.5
LeQuint Allen Jr.11103%-0.4
Austin Trammell01003%-0.6
Bhayshul Tuten11-303%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foye Oluokun460.001
Jarrian Jones540.001
Ventrell Miller250.000
Antonio Johnson340.000
Andrew Wingard240.000
Montaric Brown410.011
Dennis Gardeck320.000
Greg Newsome II210.002
Josh Hines-Allen121.500
Jack Kiser110.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith29/3928441211.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ashton Jeanty13423.20-2.8
Geno Smith591.80-0.3
Brock Bowers166.000.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brock Bowers1213127334%12.9
Ashton Jeanty5547113%4.8
Tre Tucker3438011%2.7
Michael Mayer3726018%-8.5
Jakobi Meyers4623016%0.4
Raheem Mostert111403%2.1
Ian Thomas11903%0.6
Tyler Lockett01003%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin White880.000
Darien Porter820.000
Isaiah Pola-Mao620.012
Jeremy Chinn430.000
Elandon Roberts420.000
Eric Stokes320.000
Maxx Crosby311.001
Adam Butler310.000
Jonah Laulu220.000
Tristin McCollum210.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Closing total
43.5
JAX moneyline
-130
LV moneyline
+110

Jaguars closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 59 — over by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
JAX 14 days · LV 14 days
Coaches
Liam Coen vs Pete Carroll