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2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium
30
29
Jacksonville Jaguars 30–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 0:16, JAX +45% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-G.Smith pass to 17-T.Lockett is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
How the points landed
(:39) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 89-B.Bowers (6-G.Newsome). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 89-B.Bowers for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: JAX 0 — LV 6(:04) 39-C.Little 68 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 3 — LV 6(9:57) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 6 — LV 6(6:29) 8-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. Penalty on LV-70-S.Forsythe, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on JAX-44-T.Walker, Disqualification, offsetting.
Score after this play: JAX 6 — LV 9(14:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 13 — LV 9(9:45) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 13 — LV 16(4:10) 33-B.Tuten up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 20 — LV 16(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 20 — LV 23(:20) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 23 — LV 23(3:26) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 30 — LV 23(:20) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: JAX 30 — LV 29Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jaguars | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 76 | 61 |
| Total yards | 367 (edge) | 331 |
| Yards per play | 4.8 | 5.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.16 (edge) | 0.14 |
| Success rate | 51% | 52% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 50% | 72% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.06 | 0.25 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.38 (edge) | -0.14 |
| Third downs | 9/16 | 7/10 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 24 (edge) | 23 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.14.
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
29/39, 284 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
11.4 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
23/34, 220 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-0.8 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
8/9 for 90 yds, 0 TD
27% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | JAX 40 | 5 | 4 | 1:31 | Punt | |
| 2 | LV | LV 14 | 6 | 22 | 1:58 | Punt | |
| 3 | JAX | JAX 17 | 17 | 76 | 10:27 | Interception | |
| 4 | LV | LV 20 | 10 | 43 | 4:36 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | JAX | JAX 37 | 10 | 37 | 5:49 | Punt | |
| 6 | LV | LV 5 | 14 | 88 | 5:04 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 7 | JAX | JAX 31 | 5 | 19 | 0:35 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | LV | LV 29 | 3 | 3 | 0:52 | Interception | |
| 9 | JAX | LV 32 | 7 | 17 | 4:15 | Field goal +3 | |
| 10 | LV | JAX 43 | 9 | 27 | 3:27 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | JAX | JAX 31 | 15 | 69 | 6:36 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | LV | LV 31 | 11 | 54 | 5:12 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | JAX | JAX 26 | 11 | 59 | 5:32 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 14 | LV | LV 38 | 7 | 62 | 2:14 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | JAX | JAX 28 | 9 | 42 | 1:36 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | LV | LV 34 | 2 | -5 | 0:16 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | JAX | LV 44 | 12 | 44 | 6:36 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 18 | LV | JAX 45 | 10 | 37 | 3:08 | Touchdown +6 |
11 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 88 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/34 | 220 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 22 | 84 | 3.8 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 1 | 1.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 2 | 2.7 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 8 | 9 | 90 | 0 | 27% | 4.8 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 15% | 3.8 |
| Travis Etienne | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foye Oluokun | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarrian Jones | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ventrell Miller | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Johnson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 29/39 | 284 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Jaguars closed -2.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 59 — over by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| 0.8 |
| Dyami Brown | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 21% | -7.8 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | 1.1 |
| Hunter Long | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9% | -0.5 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | -0.4 |
| Austin Trammell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montaric Brown | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dennis Gardeck | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Newsome II | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jack Kiser | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -2.8 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 12 | 13 | 127 | 3 | 34% | 12.9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 5 | 5 | 47 | 1 | 13% | 4.8 |
| Tre Tucker | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 11% | 2.7 |
| Michael Mayer | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 18% | -8.5 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 16% | 0.4 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | 2.1 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | 0.6 |
| Tyler Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -1.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 8 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darien Porter | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Laulu | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Butler | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tristin McCollum | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
