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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 3:57 PM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Jaguars175 of 189 plays carry both curves
OT · 0:16Jaguars 30 — Raiders 29LV ballJAX 55%
Jaguars 55%Raiders 45%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-G.Smith pass to 17-T.Lockett is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing −45.2 for RaidersExpected points −0.95 for RaidersThe model had Jaguars 3 points higher than the market did.play 187
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 0:16JAX +45% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-G.Smith pass to 17-T.Lockett is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Overtime · 3:24JAX +44% win prob39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
4th · 0:10JAX +43% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 29 for -5 yards (sack split by 41-J.Hines-Allen and 90-E.Ogbah).
Overtime · 0:20JAX +43% win prob(:20) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 2:00LV +38% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 1-T.Tucker to JAX 23 for 22 yards (42-A.Wingard).
4th · 2:00LV +25% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:04
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Trevor Lawrence's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 3:26 left in overtime put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
2nd0:39Brock Bowers·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Geno Smithfrom Geno Smith · kick no good, wide right+60–6
2nd0:04Cam Little·68-yd field goal68-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+33–6
3rd9:57Cam Little·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+36–6
3rd6:29Daniel Carlson·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–9
4th0:20Cam Little·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+323–23
Overtime3:26Trevor Lawrence·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+730–23
Overtime0:20Brock Bowers·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Geno Smithfrom Geno Smith · two-point no good+630–29
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryRaiders
Jaguars4–3Raiders
367Total yards331
4.8Yards per play5.4
51%Success rate52%
56%Third-down rate70%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays5
24First downs23
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Jaguars ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Jaguars: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.14Raiders: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Jaguars: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.25Raiders: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.38Jaguars: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.14Raiders: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 76 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Raiders’s 61 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 5, Raiders 5.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LV's pass rate over expected, +12.3 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +9.5 pts in week 1.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
JAX's sack or hit rate, 6.8%, is past their previous low of 8.7% in week 5 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.4 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Raiders5.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.4 pts, 11.2 points below their season mean of 1.7 pts and 1.9 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
G.Smith pass−46% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:20) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT 0:20 · Raiders · 2nd & goal at JAX 2 · gained 2 · +1.80 EP · −45.8% win probability
173 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 95 yards from the LV 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
52%
Yards
698
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.2165%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR35+0.1177%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.3968%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.2412%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2443%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.4140%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Jaguars 44
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted21 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Raiders 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 36
2nd quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Jaguars 37
Punt13 plays, from the Jaguars 37 to the Raiders 36
Jaguars0Raiders6
Touchdown17 plays, from the Raiders 5 to the Jaguars 7
Jaguars3Raiders6
Field goal6 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to midfield
3rd quarter34 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Raiders 32
Jaguars6Raiders6
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Raiders 15
Jaguars6Raiders9
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 43 to the Jaguars 1
The period ended14 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Raiders 12
4th quarter46 plays
Jaguars12Raiders9
Jaguars13Raiders9
Touchdown3 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Jaguars13Raiders15
Jaguars13Raiders16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Jaguars 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Jaguars19Raiders16
Jaguars20Raiders16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Raiders 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Jaguars20Raiders22
Jaguars20Raiders23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Jaguars 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Jaguars23Raiders23
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Raiders 30
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended3 plays
Overtime27 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Jaguars29Raiders23
Jaguars30Raiders23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Raiders 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Jaguars30Raiders29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Jaguars 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
