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2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · New Era Field
21
28
Buffalo Bills 28–21. Biggest swing: Q2 0:46, BUF +13% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 5-M.Brown to BUF 1 for 40 yards (47-C.Benford).
How the points landed
(8:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 0 — BUF 7(15:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 4-R.Rice. 4-R.Rice right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — BUF 7(9:31) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 10 — BUF 7(6:42) (No Huddle) 26-Ty.Johnson left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 10 — BUF 14(1:35) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard to KC 1 for no gain (6-B.Cook; 54-L.Chenal). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 10 — BUF 21(:06) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 13 — BUF 21(1:38) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 13 — BUF 28(11:34) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: KC 21 — BUF 28Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Chiefs | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 58 | 63 |
| Total yards | 307 | 405 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.3 | 6.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.04 | 0.23 (edge) |
| Success rate | 41% | 56% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 67% | 48% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.03 | 0.33 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.17 (edge) | 0.14 |
| Third downs | 3/13 | 7/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 | 22 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
23/26, 273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
9.6 expected points added · +18.4% completion over expected
Passing · KC
15/34, 250 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-1.7 expected points added · -4.4% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | BUF 16 | 13 | 79 | 7:00 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | KC | KC 33 | 5 | 3 | 1:01 | Punt | |
| 3 | BUF | BUF 30 | 6 | 23 | 2:42 | Turnover on downs | |
| 4 | KC | KC 47 | 8 | 48 | 4:21 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | BUF | BUF 30 | 5 | 5 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 6 | KC | KC 36 | 7 | 36 | 3:20 | Field goal +3 | |
| 7 | BUF | BUF 30 | 7 | 80 | 2:48 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | KC | KC 40 | 7 | 21 | 2:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | BUF | BUF 40 | 8 | 60 | 2:39 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 10 | KC | KC 33 | 8 | 66 | 1:30 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | BUF | BUF 35 | 2 | 0 | 0:03 | End of half | |
| 12 | KC | KC 31 | 5 | 3 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 13 | BUF | BUF 17 | 9 | 35 | 4:45 | Punt | |
| 14 | KC | KC 11 | 7 | 24 | 3:07 | Punt | |
| 15 | BUF | BUF 26 | 9 | 74 | 3:57 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | KC | KC 34 | 13 | 68 | 5:02 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 17 | BUF | BUF 31 | 9 | 16 | 4:46 | Punt | |
| 18 | KC | KC 13 | 5 | 20 | 2:28 | Interception | |
| 19 | BUF | BUF 33 | 9 | 33 | 3:56 | Missed field goal | |
| 20 | KC | KC 42 | 4 | 18 | 0:22 | End of game |
8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/34 | 250 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 1 | 3.2 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Rashee Rice | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 | 1.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 4 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 24% | 4.8 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 4 | 73 | 0 | 14% | 4.7 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 5 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 5 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nohl Williams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/26 | 273 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 27 | 114 | 4.2 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 49 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 5.8 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 24% | -5.4 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | -0.4 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | -0.3 |
| Brashard Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.3 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Roland-Wallace | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Gillotte | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.2 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 2 | 4.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 | 1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 6 | 6 | 101 | 1 | 24% | 8.6 |
| Khalil Shakir | 7 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 32% | -1.9 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 4% | 2.7 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 4% | 2.2 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 8% | 0.7 |
| Keon Coleman | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | 0.7 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 8% | 1.1 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | 0.3 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | 0.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | 0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Bishop | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Greg Rousseau | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrel Bernard | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Lewis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Marcus Ingram | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
