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Buffalo Bills 28, Chiefs 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:46, 1st and 10, on Marquise Brown — 13.3 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:46 · 1st and 10
Marquise Brown
Chiefs
(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 5-M.Brown to BUF 1 for 40 yards (47-C.Benford).
Chiefs closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Buffalo Bills 28–21. Biggest swing: Q2 0:46, Chiefs +13.3% win probability on one snap.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dalton KincaidBillsQ1 8:05(8:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.0pts
Dalton KincaidBillsQ2 7:34(7:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at KC 8 for 47 yards (20-N.Williams; 22-T.McDuffie).
12.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Chiefs at 3 of 13 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at -0.03 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Chiefs at +0.04 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Chiefs152 of 167 plays carry both curves
(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 5-M.Brown to BUF 1 for 40 yards (47-C.Benford).
Swing −13.3 for BillsExpected points −3.38 for BillsThe model had Bills 12 points higher than the market did.play 79
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:46BUF +13% win prob(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 5-M.Brown to BUF 1 for 40 yards (47-C.Benford).
2nd · 7:34BUF +13% win prob(7:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at KC 8 for 47 yards (20-N.Williams; 22-T.McDuffie).
1st · 8:05BUF +10% win prob(8:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:34BUF +9% win prob(11:34) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:23KC +9% win prob(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Shakir (6-B.Cook) [56-G.Karlaftis].
3rd · 7:53BUF +9% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce to KC 40 for 28 yards (8-T.Bernard) [97-J.Bosa].
2nd · 1:50
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ty Johnson's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 6:42 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Chiefs: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.23Bills: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Chiefs: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.33Bills: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Chiefs: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.14Bills: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 58 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 63 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Bills 4.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's sack or hit rate, 35.9%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 6.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 28.1% in week 8.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
KC's pass rate over expected, −4.9 pts, is past their previous low of −1.1 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Bills35.9%
off script — got home · +19.5 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+2.30× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 35.9%, 19.5 points above their season mean of 16.4% and 2.3 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
77Jaylon MooreT · Every snap100%60 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%60 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%60 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
76Kingsley SuamataiaG · Full-time98%59 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time92%55 snaps
1Xavier WorthyWR · Full-time83%50 snaps
4Rashee RiceWR · Full-time82%49 snaps
29Kareem HuntRB · Heavy rotation78%47 snaps
74Jawaan TaylorT · Heavy rotation72%43 snaps
5Marquise BrownWR · Rotational43%26 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Rotational37%22 snaps
64Wanya MorrisT · Rotational28%17 snaps
9JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational28%17 snaps
80Tyquan ThorntonWR · Situational23%14 snaps
24Brashard SmithRB · Situational20%12 snaps
85Robert TonyanTE · Situational10%6 snaps
26Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Situational3%2 snaps
66Mike CaliendoG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Kristian FultonCBC.J. HansonGElijah MitchellRBIsiah PachecoRBJosh SimmonsTJared WileyTEJalen RoyalsWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at KC 8 for 47 yards (20-N.Williams; 22-T.McDuffie).
Q2 7:34 · Bills · 2nd & 13 at BUF 45 · gained 47 · +3.79 EP · +16.3% win probability
150 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 84 yards from the BUF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
49%
Yards
711
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2160%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.1078%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.0356%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.339%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Chiefs0Bills6
Chiefs0Bills7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bills 16 to the Chiefs 23
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Chiefs 36
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Chiefs 47
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 47 to the Bills 9
2nd quarter54 plays
Chiefs6Bills7
Chiefs7Bills7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 37
Chiefs10Bills7
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Bills 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Chiefs10Bills13
Chiefs10Bills14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Chiefs 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Bills 39
Chiefs10Bills20
Chiefs10Bills21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs13Bills21
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Bills 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Chiefs 36
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 17 to the Chiefs 48
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Chiefs 44
Chiefs13Bills27
Chiefs13Bills28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Chiefs 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Bills 33
4th quarter43 plays
Chiefs19Bills28
Chiefs21Bills28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Bills 2
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Chiefs 45
Intercepted7 plays, from the Chiefs 13 to the Chiefs 24
No good13 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Chiefs 34
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Bills 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
