2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · New Era Field

Kansas City Chiefs

Buffalo BillsWinner

KC -2.5 upsetU 53.5 ✓Chiefs closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 28–21. Biggest swing: Q2 0:46, BUF +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:46KC 10 — BUF 21KC ball · 1st & 10BUF 69%

(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 5-M.Brown to BUF 1 for 40 yards (47-C.Benford).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:46BUF +13% win prob(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 5-M.Brown to BUF 1 for 40 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q2 · 7:34BUF +13% win prob(7:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at KC 8 for 47 yards (20-N.Williams; 22-T.McDuffie).
Q1 · 8:05BUF +10% win prob(8:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:34BUF +9% win prob(11:34) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:05BUF Touchdown
(8:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 0 — BUF 7
Q2 · 15:00KC Touchdown
(15:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 4-R.Rice. 4-R.Rice right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 7 — BUF 7
Q2 · 9:31KC Field goal
(9:31) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 10 — BUF 7
Q2 · 6:42BUF Touchdown
(6:42) (No Huddle) 26-Ty.Johnson left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 10 — BUF 14
Q2 · 1:35BUF Touchdown
(1:35) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard to KC 1 for no gain (6-B.Cook; 54-L.Chenal). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 10 — BUF 21
Q2 · 0:06KC Field goal
(:06) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 13 — BUF 21
Q3 · 1:38BUF Touchdown
(1:38) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 13 — BUF 28
Q4 · 11:34KC Touchdown
(11:34) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: KC 21 — BUF 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Bills
Offensive plays	58	63
Total yards	307	405 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04	0.23 (edge)
Success rate	41%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	0.14
Third downs	3/13	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

23/26, 273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.6 expected points added · +18.4% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

15/34, 250 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.7 expected points added · -4.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

27 att, 114 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

11 att, 49 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Dalton KincaidTE

6/6 for 101 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Rashee RiceWR

4/7 for 80 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 16	13	79	7:00	Touchdown +7
2	KC	KC 33	5	3	1:01	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 30	6	23	2:42	Turnover on downs
4	KC	KC 47	8	48	4:21	Touchdown +7
5	BUF	BUF 30	5	5	2:09	Punt
6	KC	KC 36	7	36	3:20	Field goal +3
7	BUF	BUF 30	7	80	2:48	Touchdown +7
8	KC	KC 40	7	21	2:27	Turnover on downs
9	BUF	BUF 40	8	60	2:39	Touchdown +7
10	KC	KC 33	8	66	1:30	Field goal +3
11	BUF	BUF 35	2	0	0:03	End of half
12	KC	KC 31	5	3	1:37	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 17	9	35	4:45	Punt
14	KC	KC 11	7	24	3:07	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 26	9	74	3:57	Touchdown +7
16	KC	KC 34	13	68	5:02	Touchdown +8
17	BUF	BUF 31	9	16	4:46	Punt
18	KC	KC 13	5	20	2:28	Interception
19	BUF	BUF 33	9	33	3:56	Missed field goal
20	KC	KC 42	4	18	0:22	End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	15/34	250	0	1	3	-1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	11	49	4.5	1	3.2
Xavier Worthy	1	7	7.0	0	0.4
Brashard Smith	3	7	2.3	0	-0.9
Rashee Rice	2	6	3.0	1	1.2
Patrick Mahomes	1	5	5.0	0	0.6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	5	2.5	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Rashee Rice	4	7	80	24%	4.8
Marquise Brown	2	4	73	14%	4.7
Travis Kelce	4	5	66	17%	5.8
Xavier Worthy	3	7	23	24%	-5.4
Kareem Hunt	1	2	6	7%	-0.4
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1	1	2	3%	-0.3
Brashard Smith	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
Noah Gray	0	1	0	3%	-0.8
Tyquan Thornton	0	1	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nick Bolton	5	9	0.0	0
Trent McDuffie	5	7	1.0	0
Bryan Cook	6	2	0.0	1
Nohl Williams	2	5	0.0	0
Leo Chenal	3	3	1.0	0
George Karlaftis	1	5	0.5	0
Chamarri Conner	3	2	0.0	0
Jaylen Watson	4	1	0.0	0
Drue Tranquill	1	2	0.0	0
Christian Roland-Wallace	1	2	0.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	23/26	273	1	0	3	9.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	27	114	4.2	0	-1.2
Josh Allen	6	19	3.2	2	4.4
Ty Johnson	2	8	4.0	1	1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Kincaid	6	6	101	1	24%	8.6
Khalil Shakir	7	8	43	0	32%	-1.9
Dawson Knox	1	1	30	0	4%	2.7
Elijah Moore	1	1	28	0	4%	2.2
Jackson Hawes	1	2	18	0	8%	0.7
Keon Coleman	2	2	17	0	8%	0.7
Ty Johnson	2	2	12	0	8%	1.1
James Cook	1	1	11	0	4%	0.3
Tyrell Shavers	1	1	7	0	4%	0.3
Curtis Samuel	1	1	6	0	4%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cole Bishop	4	3	0.0	4
Greg Rousseau	3	3	0.5	0
Terrel Bernard	4	2	0.0	0
Jordan Poyer	2	3	0.0	0
Matt Milano	1	3	0.0	0
Cam Lewis	2	1	0.0	0
Christian Benford	2	1	1.0	0
Joey Bosa	2	1	1.0	0
Reggie Gilliam	1	1	0.0	0
Ja'Marcus Ingram	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -2.5
Closing total: 53.5
KC moneyline: -135
BUF moneyline: +114

Chiefs closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 49 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: KC 6 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Sean McDermott