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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 9
It turned at Q2 0:46, 1st and 10, on Marquise Brown — 13.3 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 28–21. Biggest swing: Q2 0:46, Chiefs +13.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:46 · 1st and 10
Marquise Brown
Chiefs
(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 5-M.Brown to BUF 1 for 40 yards (47-C.Benford).
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Chiefs at 3 of 13 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at -0.03 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Chiefs at +0.04 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
(:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 5-M.Brown to BUF 1 for 40 yards (47-C.Benford).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ty Johnson's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 6:42 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 58 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 63 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Bills 4.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's sack or hit rate, 35.9%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 6.2 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · +2.3σ from their own normal
KC's pass rate over expected, −4.9 pts, is past their previous low of −1.1 pts in week 7 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs-4.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.8 vs their 3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 57 snaps
Bills-4.0 ptsright on their number · −0.9 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 82%
Tendencies room →Chiefs61.0%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 62.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 41 early downs
Bills42.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.3 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Chiefs10.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bills16.7%inside their normal wobble · −10.5 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 116%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs50.0%right on their number · −6.0 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±16.1 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 61.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 70%
Tendencies room →Chiefs43.3%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Bills33.3%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 39%
Tendencies room →Chiefs16.7%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Bills35.9%off script — got home · +19.5 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+2.30× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
BUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 35.9%, 19.5 points above their season mean of 16.4% and 2.3 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
23/26, 273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
9.6 expected points added · +18.4% completion over expected
Passing · KC
15/34, 250 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-1.7 expected points added · -4.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dalton Kincaid banked 11.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 28.8 | +10.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/26, 273 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 19 yd, 2 TD |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Featured Receiver | 22.1 | +11.1 | 35% | 53% | 24% | 40% | 6/6, 101 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashee RiceWR · Featured Receiver | 18.6 | +4.3 | 82% | 82% | 24% | 22% | 2 car, 6 yd, 1 TD · 4/7, 80 yd |
| James CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.5 | −3.6 | 76% | 60% | 4% | 2% | 27 car, 114 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.6 | +1.6 | 92% | 97% | 17% | 13% | 4/5, 66 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB · Committee Back | 12.5 | −3.0 | 78% | 82% | 7% | 0% | 11 car, 49 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 6 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.3 | −1.0 | 61% | 77% | 32% | 1% | 7/8, 43 yd |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 10.5 | −7.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/34, 250 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 5 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 10.0 | +4.4 | 20% | 33% | 8% | 0% | 2 car, 8 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +2.8 | 43% | 51% | 14% | 22% | 2/4, 73 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Featured Receiver | 6.0 | −5.5 | 83% | 87% | 24% | 30% | 1 car, 7 yd · 3/7, 23 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +1.6 | 48% | 30% | 4% | 19% | 1/1, 30 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +1.8 | 26% | 37% | 4% | 21% | 1/1, 28 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.6 | 68% | 73% | 8% | 8% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −0.8 | 47% | 30% | 8% | 13% | 1/2, 18 yd |
| Tyrell ShaversWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 47% | 37% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 41% | 57% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.3 | 28% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Brashard SmithRB | 0.7 | −2.5 | 20% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 7 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB | 0.5 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ray DavisRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | — | 26% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 23% | 33% | 3% | 10% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nikko RemigioWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 37% | 26% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at KC 8 for 47 yards (20-N.Williams; 22-T.McDuffie).
Q2 7:34 · Bills · 2nd & 13 at BUF 45 · gained 47 · +3.79 EP · +16.3% win probability
150 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 84 yards from the BUF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs0
Bills6Chiefs0Bills7Chiefs6Bills7Chiefs7Bills7Chiefs10Bills7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Chiefs10Bills13Chiefs10Bills14Chiefs10Bills20Chiefs10Bills21Chiefs13Bills21Chiefs13Bills27Chiefs13Bills28Chiefs19Bills28Chiefs21Bills28Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/34 | 250 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 1 | +3.2 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Brashard Smith |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 4 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 24% | +4.8 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 4 | 73 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 5 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 5 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/26 | 273 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +9.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_09_KC_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 49 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 7 |
| 2.3 |
| 0 |
| −0.9 |
| Rashee Rice | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.8 |
| +4.7 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 17% | +5.8 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 24% | −5.4 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.4 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Brashard Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Nohl Williams | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chamarri Conner | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Roland-Wallace | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Gillotte | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 27 | 114 | 4.2 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 2 | +4.4 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 | +1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid | 6 | 6 | 101 | 1 | 24% | +8.6 |
| Khalil Shakir | 7 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 32% | −1.9 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 4% | +2.7 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 4% | +2.2 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Keon Coleman | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 8% | +1.1 |
| James Cook | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Bishop | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Greg Rousseau | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrel Bernard | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Benford | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Lewis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Marcus Ingram | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Hoecht | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
