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Los Angeles Chargers 27 at Tennessee Titans 20. Final.
Chargers -10 no coverO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 9
Los Angeles Chargers 27, Titans 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:25, 2nd and 5, on Cody Barton — 14.2 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:25 · 2nd and 5
Cody Barton
Titans
(11:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 50-C.Barton at LAC 24. 50-C.Barton for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chargers closed -10, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Chargers 27–20. Biggest swing: Q1 11:25, Titans +14.2% win probability on one snap.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetTitansQ1 3:13(3:13) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to TEN 33, Center-41-R.Lovato. 17-C.Dike for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.5pts
Elic AyomanorTitansQ3 12:24(12:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle to 5-E.Ayomanor to LAC 40 for 29 yards (3-D.James).
8.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Chargers won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Titans at 1 of 9 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Titans at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Chargers won this one — -0.00 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.32 expected points per carry.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 24.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 43 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Chargers146 of 151 plays carry both curves
(11:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 50-C.Barton at LAC 24. 50-C.Barton for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.2 for TitansExpected points +7.14 for TitansThe model had Titans 33 points higher than the market did.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:25LAC +14% win prob(11:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 50-C.Barton at LAC 24. 50-C.Barton for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:13LAC +9% win prob(3:13) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to TEN 33, Center-41-R.Lovato. 17-C.Dike for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:24TEN +8% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep middle to 5-E.Ayomanor to LAC 40 for 29 yards (3-D.James).
2nd · 3:09LAC +8% win prob(3:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at TEN 42 for -8 yards (0-D.Henley).
2nd · 5:07TEN +6% win prob(5:07) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
1st · 10:34TEN +6% win prob(10:34) 30-K.Vidal up the middle to LAC 29 for 1 yard (33-C.Gray). PENALTY on TEN-33-C.Gray, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 29.
3rd · 7:01
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Dicker's 52-yard field goal with 0:25 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th4:23Joey Slye·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+327–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryTitans
Chargers6–3Titans
344Total yards206
5.4Yards per play4.7
58%Success rate36%
54%Third-down rate11%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays7
20First downs10
6Sacks taken4
1Turnovers0
The read
Chargers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Chargers: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.18Titans: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Chargers: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.08Titans: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.00Chargers: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.32Titans: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 64 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Titans’s 44 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Titans 2.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's play-action rate, 38.5%, is past their previous high of 28.9% in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 8.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Titans25.6%
leaned — got home · +9.7 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.64× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteTEN's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 38.5%, 19.3 points above their season mean of 19.1% and 2.4 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass−17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 50-C.Barton at LAC 24. 50-C.Barton for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:25 · Chargers · 2nd & 5 at LAC 20 · gained nothing · -7.14 EP · −17.5% win probability
144 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 151 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 99 yards from the LAC 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
151 of 151 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
151
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
46%
Yards
549
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.0276%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0564%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR17+0.2424%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.1930%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1760%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Chargers 48
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Chargers0Titans6
Touchdown2 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 20
Chargers0Titans7
Chargers6Titans7
Chargers7Titans7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Titans 2
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Chargers 49
Chargers7Titans13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Chargers 13
Chargers7Titans14
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Titans 23
2nd quarter45 plays
Chargers10Titans14
Field goal4 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Titans 9
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 44
Chargers16Titans14
Chargers17Titans14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Titans 19
Chargers17Titans17
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Chargers 31
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 43 to midfield
Chargers20Titans17
Field goal6 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Titans 34
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter29 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Chargers 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and two tight endsDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Chargers 1
The period ended13 plays, from the Chargers 1 to the Titans 12
4th quarter36 plays
Chargers26Titans17
Chargers27Titans17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Titans 1
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 32
Punt4 plays
Chargers27Titans20
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Chargers 19
The period ended14 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Titans 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
