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Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 9
It turned at Q4 6:29, 4th and 23, on Jake Bates — 20.1 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:29 · 4th and 23
Jake Bates
Vikings
(6:29) 39-J.Bates 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (50-L.Rodriguez), Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox, RECOVERED by MIN-2-I.Rodgers at MIN 33. 2-I.Rodgers pushed ob at DET 26 for 41 yards (3-J.Fox).
Minnesota Vikings 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 6:29, Vikings +20.1% win probability on one snap.
20.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Lions at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Lions at 4 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(6:29) 39-J.Bates 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (50-L.Rodriguez), Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox, RECOVERED by MIN-2-I.Rodgers at MIN 33. 2-I.Rodgers pushed ob at DET 26 for 41 yards (3-J.Fox).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Will Reichard's 50-yard field goal with 4:46 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Will Reichard50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+317–149 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryLions
Vikings ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 55 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Lions’s 62 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Lions 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's sack or hit rate, 29.0%, is past their previous high of 26.3% in week 4 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 9.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 68.6% in week 8 against 45.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings0.3 ptsright on their number · +1.7 vs their -1.4 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 55 snaps
Lions-4.9 ptsright on their number · −0.1 vs their -4.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 84%
Tendencies room →Vikings45.5%inside their normal wobble · −9.1 vs their 54.6%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 44 early downs
Lions61.9%inside their normal wobble · +8.2 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 53%
Tendencies room →Vikings32.3%inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Lions16.7%inside their normal wobble · −9.3 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 122%
Fourth Down room →Vikings—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 27.4%.
Lions60.0%right on their number · −5.6 vs their 65.6%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 77%
Tendencies room →Vikings47.6%right on their number · −4.2 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Lions19.4%leaned — sat back · −12.5 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Vikings26.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.7 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Lions29.0%leaned — got home · +12.8 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
DET's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.0%, 12.8 points above their season mean of 16.3% and 1.5 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
25/37, 284 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
4.1 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
14/25, 143 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-7.4 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
9/13 for 97 yds, 0 TD
36% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Sam LaPorta banked 8.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPortaTE · Featured Receiver | 21.7 | +8.0 | 100% | 100% | 22% | 22% | 6/8, 97 yd, 1 TD |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 19.4 | +3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/37, 284 yd, 2 TD |
| J.J. McCarthyQB · Starter QB | 18.9 | −0.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/25, 143 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 9 car, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.7 | −6.0 | 95% | 98% | 36% | 48% | 9/13, 97 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.7 | −2.2 | 95% | 94% | 39% | 22% | 6/9, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.6 | +6.3 | 91% | 93% | 17% | 25% | 4/6, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 11.8 | +5.1 | 42% | 45% | 9% | 0% | 9 car, 78 yd · 2/2, 20 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB · Committee Back | 11.0 | −5.3 | 38% | 29% | 11% | 5% | 11 car, 40 yd, 1 TD · 2/4, 10 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +2.5 | 77% | 81% | 13% | 6% | 2/3, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | −1.4 | 92% | 90% | 17% | 40% | 1 car, 16 yd · 2/4, 48 yd |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 5.8 | −4.1 | 66% | 76% | 8% | 0% | 9 car, 25 yd · 3/3, 3 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB · Committee Back | 4.7 | −4.7 | 60% | 52% | 4% | 0% | 10 car, 36 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −4.9 | 53% | 65% | 17% | 29% | 1/4, 16 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.8 | 55% | 40% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Sione VakiRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jacob SaylorsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 45% | 55% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ben YurosekTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 27% | 16% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Myles PriceWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tai FeltonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Zavier ScottRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:51 · Lions · 4th & 4 at MIN 40 · gained 40 · +6.02 EP · +16.4% win probability
162 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 72 yards from the DET 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings0
Lions6Vikings0Lions7Vikings6Lions7Vikings7Lions7Vikings13Lions7Vikings14Lions7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Vikings14Lions13Vikings14Lions14Vikings17Lions14Vikings23Lions14Vikings24Lions14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings24Lions17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Vikings27Lions17Vikings27Lions23Vikings27Lions24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 14/25 | 143 | 2 | 1 | 5 | −7.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 78 | 8.7 | 0 | +4.0 |
| Jordan Mason | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Jordan Addison | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 17% | +3.6 |
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 9 | 47 | 1 | 39% | +0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Cashman | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 2 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/37 | 284 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +4.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_09_MIN_DET
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -9.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 51 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| J.J. McCarthy | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 9% | +1.9 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 17% | −5.6 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 13% | +2.1 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas Turner | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Redmond | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ivan Pace Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |
| 40 |
| 3.6 |
| 1 |
| −1.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 13 | 97 | 0 | 36% | +2.4 |
| Sam LaPorta | 6 | 8 | 97 | 1 | 22% | +9.5 |
| Jameson Williams | 4 | 6 | 66 | 1 | 17% | +5.4 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +1.5 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 11% | −1.6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −2.2 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Branch | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lacy | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrion Arnold | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Alim McNeill | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Harper | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
