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2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · Ford Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

27

Detroit Lions

24

DET -9.5 upsetO 47.5 ✓Dome

Minnesota Vikings 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 6:29, MIN +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑MIN ↓
Q4 · 6:29MIN 24 — DET 17DET ball · 4th & 23MIN 71%

(6:29) 39-J.Bates 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (50-L.Rodriguez), Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox, RECOVERED by MIN-2-I.Rodgers at MIN 33. 2-I.Rodgers pushed ob at DET 26 for 41 yards (3-J.Fox).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 6:29MIN +20% win prob(6:29) 39-J.Bates 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (50-L.Rodriguez), Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox, RECOVERED by MIN-2-I.Rodgers at MIN 33. 2-I.Rodgers pushed ob at DET 26 for 41 yards (3-J.Fox).
  2. Q4 · 10:37DET +17% win prob(10:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to MIN 24 for 17 yards (22-H.Smith; 44-J.Metellus).
  3. Q4 · 2:00DET +13% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 1-J.Williams pushed ob at MIN 3 for 34 yards (2-I.Rodgers). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 1-J.Williams for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 8:11DET +13% win prob(8:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIN-58-J.Greenard, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 19 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:51DET Touchdown

    (12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 0 — DET 7
  2. Q1 · 10:20MIN Touchdown

    (10:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — DET 7
  3. Q1 · 4:13MIN Touchdown

    (4:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 14 — DET 7
  4. Q2 · 9:43DET Touchdown

    (9:43) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 14 — DET 14
  5. Q2 · 4:46MIN Field goal

    (4:46) 16-W.Reichard 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — DET 14
  6. Q3 · 6:13MIN Touchdown

    (6:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy scrambles right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 24 — DET 14
  7. Q3 · 0:15DET Field goal

    (:15) 39-J.Bates 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: MIN 24 — DET 17
  8. Q4 · 3:33MIN Field goal

    (3:33) 16-W.Reichard 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 27 — DET 17
  9. Q4 · 2:00DET Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 1-J.Williams pushed ob at MIN 3 for 34 yards (2-I.Rodgers). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 1-J.Williams for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 27 — DET 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsLions
Offensive plays5562
Total yards263305 (edge)
Yards per play4.84.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.02-0.01 (edge)
Success rate42% (edge)35%
Dropback rate56%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.140.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.13 (edge)-0.23
Third downs4/11 (edge)5/17
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps15 (edge)14
Sacks taken55
Turnovers11

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

25/37, 284 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.1 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

J.J. McCarthyQB

14/25, 143 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-7.4 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

9 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

11 att, 40 yds, 1 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

9/13 for 97 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Sam LaPortaTE

6/8 for 97 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DETDET 288722:23Touchdown +7
2MINDET 367362:20Touchdown +7
3DETDET 285-22:29Punt
4MINMIN 368643:40Touchdown +7
5DETDET 308143:37Punt
6MINMIN 74-31:33Punt
7DETMIN 3510354:19Touchdown +7
8MINMIN 279314:57Field goal +3
9DETDET 29561:29Punt
10MINMIN 25762:26Interception
11DETDET 394-10:26Punt
12MINMIN 11100:21End of half
13MINMIN 297162:29Punt
14DETDET 8481:07Punt
15MINMIN 305262:06Punt
16DETDET 9380:59Fumble
17MINDET 356352:15Touchdown +7
18DETDET 3912535:53Field goal +3
19MINMIN 265-22:01Defensive touchdown
20DETDET 4012436:50Missed field goal
21MINDET 267332:49Field goal +3
22DETDET 317691:36Touchdown +7
23MINMIN 237211:55End of game

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 72 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
J.J. McCarthy14/25143215-7.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones9788.704.0
Jordan Mason10363.60-0.8
Jordan Addison11616.001.8
J.J. McCarthy9121.311.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jordan Addison2448017%3.6
Justin Jefferson6947139%0.8
Aaron Jones222009%1.9
Jalen Nailor1416017%-5.6
T.J. Hockenson2311113%2.1
Jordan Mason11104%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Blake Cashman580.000
Byron Murphy530.000
Javon Hargrave261.000
Eric Wilson322.000
Jonathan Greenard230.000
Josh Metellus140.000
Dallas Turner220.000
Fabian Moreau120.000
Jalen Redmond121.000
Harrison Smith120.001

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff25/372842054.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
David Montgomery11403.61-1.5
Jahmyr Gibbs9252.80-3.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown91397036%2.4
Sam LaPorta6897122%9.5
Jameson Williams4666117%5.4
Brock Wright111103%1.5
David Montgomery2410011%-1.6
Jahmyr Gibbs33308%-2.2
Kalif Raymond01003%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Campbell631.000
Alex Anzalone430.000
Brian Branch420.000
Derrick Barnes411.000
Tyler Lacy131.000
Amik Robertson210.000
Terrion Arnold120.013
Thomas Harper200.000
Sione Vaki110.000
Aidan Hutchinson201.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -9.5
Closing total
47.5
MIN moneyline
+410
DET moneyline
-550

Lions closed -9.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 51 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
MIN 10 days · DET 13 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.