2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · SoFi Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -14 ✓U 44.5 ✓DomeRams closed -14 and covered, winning by 24.

Los Angeles Rams 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:10, NO +3% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:10NO 0 — LA 0NO ball · 4th & 1LA 87%

(13:10) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for no gain (27-I.Yiadom).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:10NO +3% win prob(13:10) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for no gain (27-I.Yiadom).
Q1 · 11:37LA +3% win prob(11:37) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen pushed ob at NO 33 for 16 yards (33-J.Sanker).
Q1 · 9:44LA +2% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to NO 23 for 4 yards (21-J.Reid).
Q1 · 12:44LA +2% win prob(12:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 31 for 9 yards (20-P.Werner).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:22LA Touchdown
(6:22) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 0 — LA 7
Q2 · 11:31LA Touchdown
(11:31) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NO 0 — LA 13
Q2 · 7:54NO Field goal
(7:54) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
Score after this play: NO 3 — LA 13
Q2 · 6:32LA Touchdown
(6:32) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 3 — LA 20
Q2 · 0:13NO Touchdown
(:13) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 10 — LA 20
Q3 · 5:17LA Touchdown
(5:17) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 10 — LA 27
Q4 · 12:43LA Touchdown
(12:43) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 10 — LA 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Rams
Offensive plays	39	73
Total yards	224	442 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.32	0.27 (edge)
Success rate	31%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.35 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.85	0.19 (edge)
Third downs	2/9	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.32.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

24/32, 281 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

11.8 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Tyler ShoughQB

15/24, 176 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.1 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

25 att, 114 yds, 1 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Blake CorumRB

13 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

7/8 for 95 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

5/9 for 68 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · -3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 30	5	9	1:59	Punt
2	LA	LA 12	13	88	6:43	Touchdown +7
3	NO	NO 35	5	-6	1:25	Punt
4	LA	LA 42	4	4	0:57	Punt
5	NO	NO 4	4	9	1:35	Punt
6	LA	LA 38	12	54	5:53	Touchdown +6
7	NO	NO 35	9	49	3:38	Field goal +3
8	LA	LA 35	5	65	1:25	Touchdown +7
9	NO	NO 35	5	3	0:58	Punt
10	LA	LA 16	11	73	4:33	Missed field goal
11	NO	NO 29	7	59	0:47	Touchdown +7
12	LA	LA 35	2	0	0:07	End of half
13	LA	LA 20	18	80	9:46	Touchdown +7
14	NO	NO 35	4	17	1:12	Fumble
15	LA	LA 48	11	52	6:22	Touchdown +7
16	NO	NO 35	7	57	2:57	Turnover on downs
17	LA	LA 8	4	2	2:34	Punt
18	NO	NO 49	6	27	1:36	Interception
19	LA	LA 20	8	24	5:33	End of game

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 88 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Shough	15/24	176	1	1	1	-0.1
Taysom Hill	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Taysom Hill	4	30	7.5	-2.6
Alvin Kamara	6	14	2.3	-8.2
Devin Neal	3	11	3.7	-0.7
Tyler Shough	1	2	2.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashid Shaheed	5	9	68	0	38%	-3.6
Chris Olave	3	4	57	0	17%	2.8
Juwan Johnson	3	4	31	1	17%	3.8
Brandin Cooks	2	3	16	0	13%	1.7
Alvin Kamara	1	3	3	0	13%	-2.5
Devin Neal	1	1	1	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Justin Reid	7	6	0.0	1
Demario Davis	3	9	0.0	0
Alontae Taylor	5	3	0.0	0
Jonas Sanker	5	3	0.0	1
Danny Stutsman	1	7	0.0	0
Kool-Aid McKinstry	3	4	0.0	0
Chris Rumph II	1	4	0.0	0
Chase Young	2	0	1.0	0
Jonah Williams	1	1	1.0	0
Nathan Shepherd	1	1	0.0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	24/32	281	4	0	2	11.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyren Williams	25	114	4.6	1	5.4
Blake Corum	13	58	4.5	0	0.2
Puka Nacua	1	3	3.0	0	2.0
Matthew Stafford	4	-4	-1.0	0	-3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Puka Nacua	7	8	95	1	26%	5.5
Davante Adams	5	7	60	2	23%	5.8
Terrance Ferguson	2	3	54	0	10%	4.4
Davis Allen	3	4	37	0	13%	0.4
Tyler Higbee	3	4	13	1	13%	0.2
Xavier Smith	2	3	12	0	10%	-0.4
Colby Parkinson	2	2	10	0	6%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kamren Kinchens	5	0	0.0	0	0
Emmanuel Forbes	3	1	0.0	1	3
Kobie Turner	1	2	0.0	0	0
Braden Fiske	1	2	1.0	0	0
Omar Speights	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kam Curl	2	1	0.0	0	0
Byron Young	1	1	0.0	0	0
Quentin Lake	2	0	0.0	0	1
Cobie Durant	1	0	0.0	0	0
Tyler Davis	0	1	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -14
Closing total: 44.5
NO moneyline: +750
LA moneyline: -1200

Rams closed -14 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: NO 7 days · LA 14 days
Coaches: Kellen Moore vs Sean McVay