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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 3:57 PM ET · 16 to play
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Saints149 of 157 plays carry both curves
(13:10) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for no gain (27-I.Yiadom).
Swing +3.2 for RamsExpected points +0.56 for RamsThe model had Saints 27 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:10NO +3% win prob(13:10) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-X.Smith to LA 12 for no gain (27-I.Yiadom).
1st · 11:37LA +3% win prob(11:37) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Allen pushed ob at NO 33 for 16 yards (33-J.Sanker).
1st · 9:44LA +2% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to NO 23 for 4 yards (21-J.Reid).
1st · 12:44LA +2% win prob(12:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 31 for 9 yards (20-P.Werner).
3rd · 9:51LA +2% win prob(9:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to NO 30 for 29 yards (31-J.Howden; 26-T.Burgess).
1st · 13:01NO +2% win prob(13:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua pushed ob at LA 22 for 10 yards (4-K.McKinstry).
1st · 11:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Higbee's 1-yard touchdown catch with 6:22 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:22Tyler Higbee·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+70–7
2nd11:31Davante Adams·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · kick no good, wide left+60–13
2nd7:54Blake Grupe·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder K.Kroeger · snap Z.Wood+33–13
2nd6:32Puka Nacua·39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+73–20
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.85 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.32Saints: −0.32 expected points added per play
+0.27Rams: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Saints: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.35Rams: +0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.85Saints: −0.85 expected points added per play
+0.19Rams: +0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 39 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Rams’s 73 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Rams 6.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.5 pts in week 8 against −9.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
NO's blitz rate sent turned over: 66.7% in week 8 against 23.5% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.9 points.
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 84.0% in week 8 against 57.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Rams8.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.9 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NoteLA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 44.8%, 10.6 points below their season mean of 55.5% and 1.3 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+6% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua. PENALTY on NO-4-K.McKinstry, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at NO 35 - No Play.
Q2 14:14 · Rams · 4th & 3 at NO 35 · gained nothing · +2.45 EP · +5.6% win probability
148 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 88 yards from the LA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
47%
Yards
662
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2561%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR35+0.2831%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.1477%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.3440%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 39
Saints0Rams6
Saints0Rams7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Saints 1
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Saints 38
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 42 to the Rams 46
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 4 to the Saints 13
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Saints 42
2nd quarter56 plays
Saints0Rams13
Touchdown10 plays, from midfield to the Saints 3
Saints3Rams13
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Rams 16
Saints3Rams19
Saints3Rams20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Saints 39
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Saints 38
No good13 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Saints 14
Saints9Rams20
Saints10Rams20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Rams 11
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter30 plays
Saints10Rams26
Saints10Rams27
Touchdown19 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Saints 4
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Saints 35 to midfield
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 48 to the Saints 23
4th quarter33 plays
Saints10Rams33
Saints10Rams34
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Saints 1
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Rams 7
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Rams 15
Intercepted6 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Rams 24
The period ended10 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Saints 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
