For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 3:56 PM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 38 at Washington Commanders 14. Final.
Seahawks -2.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 9
Seattle Seahawks 38, Commanders 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 3:09, 2nd and 4, on Tory Horton — 5.6 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:09 · 2nd and 4
Tory Horton
Seahawks
(3:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 15-T.Horton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Seahawks closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Seattle Seahawks 38–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:09, Seahawks +5.6% win probability on one snap.
5.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tory HortonCommandersQ1 9:30(9:30) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 45 for 5 yards. PENALTY on SEA-40-R.Ouzts, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 40 - No Play.
5.6pts
Tory HortonSeahawksQ2 8:57(8:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 15-T.Horton for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: WAS-20-Q.Martin has returned to the game.
5.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.94 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Commanders at 4 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.45 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Seahawks at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Seahawks146 of 155 plays carry both curves
(3:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 15-T.Horton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Swing −5.6 for CommandersExpected points −1.52 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 9 points higher than the market did.play 26
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:09WAS +6% win prob(3:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 15-T.Horton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
1st · 9:30SEA +6% win prob(9:30) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 45 for 5 yards. PENALTY on SEA-40-R.Ouzts, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 40 - No Play.
2nd · 8:57WAS +5% win prob(8:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 15-T.Horton for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: WAS-20-Q.Martin has returned to the game.
2nd · 15:00WAS +5% win prob(15:00) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 87-J.Bates to SEA 48 for 10 yards (13-E.Jones).
2nd · 13:14SEA +4% win prob(13:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles right end to SEA 34 for 6 yards (27-T.Woolen). PENALTY on WAS-75-C.Paul, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 40 - No Play.
1st · 12:55SEA +4% win prob(12:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-D.Samuel to WAS 44 for 3 yards (13-E.Jones). PENALTY on WAS-63-T.Biadasz, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 41 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tory Horton's 4-yard touchdown catch with 3:09 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:09Tory Horton·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+77–0
2nd8:57Tory Horton·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+714–0
2nd8:46Elijah Arroyo·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+721–0
2nd4:44Cody White·60-yd TD catch60-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+728–0
Seahawks ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.94 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.45Seahawks: +0.45 expected points added per play
−0.02Commanders: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.94Seahawks: +0.94 expected points added per play
−0.04Commanders: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Seahawks: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.01Commanders: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 48 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Commanders’s 62 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Commanders 2.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's sack or hit rate, 4.2%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 7.1% in week 4.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 8.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
WAS's play-action rate turned over: 8.6% in week 8 against 31.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Commanders4.2%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.58× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.2%, 10.1 points below their season mean of 14.2% and 1.6 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive
75Anthony BradfordG · Every snap100%51 snaps
72Abraham LucasT · Every snap100%51 snaps
76Grey ZabelG · Full-time94%48 snaps
61Jalen SundellC · Full-time94%48 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Full-time94%48 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Full-time94%48 snaps
88AJ BarnerTE · Full-time84%43 snaps
15Tory HortonWR · Heavy rotation73%37 snaps
82Cody WhiteWR · Heavy rotation71%36 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation67%34 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Daniels pass−7% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right intended for 83-J.Lane INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Okada [21-D.Witherspoon] at SEA 40. 39-T.Okada pushed ob at SEA 40 for no gain (83-J.Lane).
Q2 12:55 · Commanders · 3rd & 17 at WAS 45 · gained nothing · -2.47 EP · −7.0% win probability
145 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 155 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 150. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 90 yards from the SEA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
155 of 155 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
155
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
52%
Yards
708
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0850%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.1228%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+1.1772%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2744%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.140%
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.0940%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
155 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
155 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Commanders 41
Seahawks6Commanders0
Seahawks7Commanders0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Commanders 3
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 42
2nd quarter48 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Commanders 42 to the Seahawks 39
Seahawks13Commanders0
Seahawks14Commanders0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Commanders 21
Fumble lost1 play
Seahawks20Commanders0
Seahawks21Commanders0
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 29
Seahawks27Commanders0
Seahawks28Commanders0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 40
Seahawks28Commanders6
Seahawks28Commanders7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Seahawks 1
Seahawks31Commanders7
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Commanders 23
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Seahawks 28
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Seahawks 45
Intercepted5 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Seahawks 46
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Commanders 47 to the Seahawks 40
Seahawks37Commanders7
Seahawks38Commanders7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Commanders 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Seahawks 40
4th quarter30 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 22
Seahawks38Commanders13
Seahawks38Commanders14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Seahawks 2
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 37
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Seahawks 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -2.5
Closing total
47.5
Seahawks moneyline
-148
Commanders moneyline
+124
Seahawks closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 52 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Seahawks 13 days · Commanders 6 days
Coaches
Mike Macdonald vs Dan Quinn
1st · 7:16WAS +4% win prob(7:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 88-A.Barner to WAS 45 for 8 yards (4-F.Luvu). FUMBLES (4-F.Luvu), and recovers at WAS 44.
1st · 4:35WAS +4% win prob(4:35) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 9-K.Walker to WAS 13 for 14 yards (20-Q.Martin).
