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2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · FedExField

Seattle SeahawksWinner

38

Washington Commanders

14

SEA -2.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓

Seattle Seahawks 38–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:09, WAS +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3WAS ↑SEA ↓
Q1 · 3:09SEA 6 — WAS 0SEA ball · 2nd & 4SEA 72%

(3:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 15-T.Horton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 3:09WAS +6% win prob(3:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 15-T.Horton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
  2. Q1 · 9:30SEA +6% win prob(9:30) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 45 for 5 yards. PENALTY on SEA-40-R.Ouzts, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 40 - No Play.
  3. Q2 · 8:57WAS +5% win prob(8:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 15-T.Horton for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: WAS-20-Q.Martin has returned to the game.
  4. Q2 · 15:00WAS +5% win prob(15:00) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 87-J.Bates to SEA 48 for 10 yards (13-E.Jones).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:09SEA Touchdown

    (3:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 15-T.Horton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-2-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 7 — WAS 0
  2. Q2 · 8:57SEA Touchdown

    (8:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 15-T.Horton for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: WAS-20-Q.Martin has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 14 — WAS 0
  3. Q2 · 8:46SEA Touchdown

    (8:46) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 18-E.Arroyo for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 21 — WAS 0
  4. Q2 · 4:44SEA Touchdown

    (4:44) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 82-C.White for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: WAS-23-T.Amos has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 28 — WAS 0
  5. Q2 · 0:56WAS Touchdown

    (:56) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 28 — WAS 7
  6. Q2 · 0:03SEA Field goal

    (:03) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 31 — WAS 7
  7. Q3 · 1:55SEA Touchdown

    (1:55) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 38 — WAS 7
  8. Q4 · 7:17WAS Touchdown

    (7:17) (Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 38 — WAS 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSeahawksCommanders
Offensive plays4862
Total yards418 (edge)290
Yards per play8.7 (edge)4.7
Expected points added / play0.45 (edge)-0.02
Success rate60% (edge)50%
Dropback rate50%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.94 (edge)-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.040.01 (edge)
Third downs7/11 (edge)6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)17
Sacks taken0 (edge)4
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

21/24, 330 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

22.4 expected points added · +23.5% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

16/22, 153 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.3 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB

12 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

10 att, 51 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

8/9 for 129 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Tory HortonWR

4/4 for 48 yds, 2 TD

17% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 268273:49Punt
2SEASEA 10131048:07Touchdown +7
3WASWAS 2010355:15Interception
4SEASEA 408603:57Touchdown +7
5WAS—100:06Fumble
6SEAWAS 262260:05Touchdown +7
7WASWAS 20591:57Punt
8SEASEA 135872:10Touchdown +7
9WASWAS 3112693:41Touchdown +7
10SEASEA 245530:53Field goal +3
11SEASEA 19591:41Punt
12WASWAS 216272:29Punt
13SEASEA 12361:39Interception
14WASWAS 477193:30Turnover on downs
15SEASEA 4010563:48Touchdown +7
16WASWAS 356151:59Punt
17SEASEA 14482:24Punt
18WASWAS 3512505:16Touchdown +7
19SEASEA 28592:34Punt
20WASWAS 177394:40End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 104 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold21/2433041022.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker III11423.80-1.1
Zach Charbonnet8253.10-0.4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba11111.000.6
George Holani393.00-1.2
AJ Barner111.011.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba89129038%6.8
Cody White126018%1.2
Tory Horton4448217%6.5
Elijah Arroyo222918%2.7
AJ Barner3424017%2.1
Zach Charbonnet112104%1.4
Kenneth Walker III221908%1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tyrice Knight360.000
Drake Thomas351.001
Devon Witherspoon520.000
Ernest Jones150.000
Nick Emmanwori410.000
Derick Hall230.000
Leonard Williams321.000
Ty Okada230.011
Byron Murphy II040.500
Boye Mafe130.000

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jayden Daniels16/22153014-1.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chris Rodriguez Jr.12655.414.2
Jayden Daniels10515.110.5
Jacory Croskey-Merritt12383.20-2.5
Deebo Samuel Sr.133.00-0.3
Jeremy McNichols100.00-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zach Ertz4446019%1.8
Deebo Samuel Sr.5641029%0.5
Jaylin Lane3529024%-1.0
John Bates2420019%2.5
Treylon Burks111405%0.8
Jacory Croskey-Merritt11305%1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jeremy Reaves350.000
Trey Amos430.000
Frankie Luvu430.001
Bobby Wagner240.000
Jordan Magee230.000
Jonathan Jones120.000
Sheldon Day210.000
Eddie Goldman120.000
Quan Martin300.000
Marshon Lattimore020.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Closing total
47.5
SEA moneyline
-148
WAS moneyline
+124

Seahawks closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 52 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
53°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
SEA 13 days · WAS 6 days
Coaches
Mike Macdonald vs Dan Quinn