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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 300s tick · as of 3:57 PM ET · 16 to play
San Francisco 49ers 34 at New York Giants 24. Final.
49ers -2.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 9
San Francisco 49ers 34, Giants 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 7:06, 2nd and 12, on Jordan Watkins — 8.3 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:06 · 2nd and 12
Jordan Watkins
49ers
(7:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 17-J.Watkins to NYG 28 for 19 yards (2-D.Banks).
49ers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
San Francisco 49ers 34–24. Biggest swing: Q1 7:06, 49ers +8.3% win probability on one snap.
8.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jauan Jennings49ersQ2 13:14(13:14) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.3pts
Mac JonesGiantsQ2 0:38(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at SF 17 for -11 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-51-A.Carter at SF 23. 51-A.Carter to SF 27 for -4 yards (71-T.Williams).
5.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Giants at 6 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Giants at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Giants at 5 of 12 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against 49ers at 1 giveaway.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on 49ers159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(7:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 17-J.Watkins to NYG 28 for 19 yards (2-D.Banks).
Swing −8.3 for GiantsExpected points −2.26 for GiantsThe model had Giants 12 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:06NYG +8% win prob(7:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 17-J.Watkins to NYG 28 for 19 yards (2-D.Banks).
2nd · 13:14NYG +8% win prob(13:14) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 15-J.Jennings for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:38SF +6% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at SF 17 for -11 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-51-A.Carter at SF 23. 51-A.Carter to SF 27 for -4 yards (71-T.Williams).
1st · 9:01NYG +6% win prob(9:01) 10-M.Jones up the middle to SF 43 for 2 yards (53-D.Muasau).
2nd · 2:00NYG +5% win prob(2:00) 18-E.Pineiro 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
1st · 4:10SF +4% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short right to 17-W.Robinson to NYG 30 for -2 yards (20-U.Stout).
1st · 4:21
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jauan Jennings's 11-yard touchdown catch with 13:14 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
49ers ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.3349ers: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.17Giants: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.4449ers: +0.44 expected points added per play
+0.18Giants: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.2449ers: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.14Giants: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 63 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Giants’s 56 at 70%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Giants 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SF's blitz rate sent, 10.3%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 14.9% in week 5.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 8.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
SF's early-down pass rate turned over: 76.5% in week 8 against 39.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.0 pts in week 8 against −8.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Giants10.7%
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteNYG's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 10.7%, 22.6 points below their season mean of 33.3% and 1.9 times their own 11.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones sacked−14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at SF 17 for -11 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-51-A.Carter at SF 23. 51-A.Carter to SF 27 for -4 yards (71-T.Williams).
Q2 0:38 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 28 · lost 5 · -2.16 EP · −14.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 80 yards from the SF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.19
Success rate
51%
Yards
676
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.2463%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR32+0.3134%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.2671%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.3511%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.6640%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.5560%
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
49ers0Giants6
49ers0Giants7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Giants 36 to the 49ers 15
49ers6Giants7
49ers7Giants7
Touchdown15 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the Giants 5
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Giants 40
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 47
2nd quarter44 plays
49ers13Giants7
49ers14Giants7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Giants 11
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 35 to the 49ers 47
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the Giants 44
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 7 to the Giants 10
49ers17Giants7
Field goal5 plays, from the Giants 41 to the Giants 36
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Giants 31
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
No good5 plays
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
49ers20Giants7
Field goal14 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Giants 11
49ers20Giants10
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 33 to the 49ers 3
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 33
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 41
The period ended4 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 46
4th quarter45 plays
49ers26Giants10
49ers27Giants10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Giants 18
49ers27Giants16
49ers27Giants17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 35 to the 49ers 6
49ers33Giants17
49ers34Giants17
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Giants 3
49ers34Giants23
49ers34Giants24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 31 to the 49ers 24
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 48 to the Giants 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
