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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 9 · Sun, Nov 2, 2025 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 9
It turned at Q1 7:06, 2nd and 12, on Jordan Watkins — 8.3 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 34–24. Biggest swing: Q1 7:06, 49ers +8.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:06 · 2nd and 12
Jordan Watkins
49ers
(7:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 17-J.Watkins to NYG 28 for 19 yards (2-D.Banks).
8.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Giants at 6 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Giants at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Giants at 5 of 12 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against 49ers at 1 giveaway.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(7:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 17-J.Watkins to NYG 28 for 19 yards (2-D.Banks).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jauan Jennings's 11-yard touchdown catch with 13:14 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Jauan Jennings11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac JonesLead never changed again+714–710 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryGiants
49ers ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 63 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Giants’s 56 at 70%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Giants 4.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's blitz rate sent, 10.3%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 9 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
NYG's blitz rate sent, 10.7%, is past their previous low of 15.6% in week 5 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 9.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
SF's early-down pass rate turned over: 76.5% in week 8 against 39.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.0 pts in week 8 against −8.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-8.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.1 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 63 snaps
Giants-0.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 85%
Tendencies room →49ers39.2%leaned — ran early · −15.7 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 51 early downs
Giants63.6%leaned — passed early · +12.4 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 45%
Tendencies room →49ers25.0%right on their number · +2.6 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Giants15.4%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 104%
Fourth Down room →49ers25.0%right on their number · −11.3 vs their 36.3%, and they swing ±25.6 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Giants—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 53.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 64%
Tendencies room →49ers10.3%leaned — sat back · −13.2 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Giants10.7%leaned — sat back · −22.6 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−1.94× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 37%
Tendencies room →49ers7.7%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Giants10.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NYG's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 10.7%, 22.6 points below their season mean of 33.3% and 1.9 times their own 11.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
19/24, 235 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
13.5 expected points added · +12.0% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
24/33, 191 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.7 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected
Receiving · SF
5/6 for 67 yds, 1 TD
26% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Brian Robinson banked 9.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 34.3 | +6.3 | 86% | 93% | 26% | 6% | 28 car, 106 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 67 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaxson DartQB · Starter QB | 27.2 | +5.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/33, 191 yd, 2 TD · 8 car, 56 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 15.8 | +0.1 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 19/24, 235 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 4 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Featured Receiver | 14.1 | +4.4 | 79% | 79% | 22% | 27% | 4/5, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.6 | −2.0 | 100% | 100% | 34% | 23% | 9/11, 46 yd |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Featured Receiver | 11.7 | +1.9 | 86% | 79% | 19% | 22% | 3/6, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 11.3 | +9.0 | 14% | 7% | 0% | — | 5 car, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Featured Receiver | 11.2 | −1.7 | 89% | 92% | 22% | 42% | 5/7, 62 yd |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +7.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devin SingletaryRB | 7.1 | −2.0 | 56% | 51% | 6% | 1% | 8 car, 43 yd · 2/2, 8 yd |
| George KittleTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | −1.0 | 86% | 89% | 17% | 15% | 1 car, -3 yd · 4/4, 32 yd |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Receiving Back | 6.7 | −1.7 | 44% | 49% | 13% | 0% | 5 car, 18 yd · 3/4, 19 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +1.5 | 73% | 79% | 9% | 22% | 2/2, 34 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.2 | 12% | 14% | 4% | 9% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| Jordan WatkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +0.7 | 12% | 21% | 4% | 14% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 2.2 | −0.9 | 67% | 46% | 9% | 0% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.2 | 32% | 21% | 4% | 5% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | 0.0 | 91% | 92% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Jalin HyattWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Isaac GuerendoRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 33% | 46% | 4% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Adrian MartinezQB | -0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at SF 17 for -11 yards (0-B.Burns). FUMBLES (0-B.Burns) [0-B.Burns], RECOVERED by NYG-51-A.Carter at SF 23. 51-A.Carter to SF 27 for -4 yards (71-T.Williams).
Q2 0:38 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 28 · lost 5 · -2.16 EP · −14.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 80 yards from the SF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers0
Giants649ers0Giants749ers6Giants749ers7Giants749ers13Giants749ers14Giants749ers17Giants7How the play was built
A man in motion.
49ers20Giants749ers20Giants1049ers26Giants1049ers27Giants1049ers27Giants1649ers27Giants1749ers33Giants1749ers34Giants1749ers34Giants2349ers34Giants24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 19/24 | 235 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +13.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 28 | 106 | 3.8 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Brian Robinson | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 1 | +5.2 |
| Mac Jones |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 67 | 1 | 26% | +4.0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bethune | 8 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Renardo Green | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upton Stout |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 24/33 | 191 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_09_SF_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 58 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.9 |
| Adrian Martinez | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.3 |
| George Kittle | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| 22% |
| +3.6 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9% | +2.5 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 17% | +2.8 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4% | +2.1 |
| Jordan Watkins | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4% | +2.3 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 9% | −0.1 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dee Winters | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Mustapha | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Okuayinonu | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Gifford | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clelin Ferrell | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalia Davis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaxson Dart | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 1 | +7.0 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 22% | +1.6 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 9 | 11 | 46 | 0 | 34% | −0.6 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 19% | +0.4 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 3% | +3.1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 13% | +1.2 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −1.5 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Belton | 4 | 11 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Nubin | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Korie Black | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rakeem Nunez-Roches | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Muasau | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DJ Davidson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaire Barnes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
