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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 10
It turned at Q1 9:32, 2nd and 11, on Jacoby Brissett — 9.3 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:32 · 2nd and 11
Jacoby Brissett
Seahawks
(9:32) 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 32 for -11 yards (48-T.Knight). FUMBLES (48-T.Knight) [48-T.Knight], RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at ARI 34. 0-D.Lawrence for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Seattle Seahawks 44–22 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:32, Seahawks +9.3% win probability on one snap.
9.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 6 of 9 on third down, against Cardinals at 6 of 16 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(9:32) 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 32 for -11 yards (48-T.Knight). FUMBLES (48-T.Knight) [48-T.Knight], RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at ARI 34. 0-D.Lawrence for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 43-yard touchdown catch with 11:01 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+70–7
Trey McBride15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Jacoby Brissett · two-point good+815–3811 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categorySeahawks
Seahawks ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 74 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 54 at 24%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 6, Seahawks 5.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's early-down pass rate, 22.2%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 7.2 points clear of the next team along.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
SEA's pass rate over expected, −22.5 pts, is past their previous low of −15.5 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
ARI's early-down pass rate, 78.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 9.8 points clear of the next team along.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
SEA's play-action rate, 38.5%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
13 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
ARI's play-action rate turned over: 54.1% in week 9 against 14.5% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals6.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.8 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 73 snaps
Seahawks-22.5 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −15.8 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−2.49× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 17% to 94%
Tendencies room →Cardinals78.8%leaned — passed early · +12.3 vs their 66.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 52 early downs
Seahawks22.2%off script — ran early · −25.6 vs their 47.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−2.57× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 53%
Tendencies room →Cardinals14.5%inside their normal wobble · −10.8 vs their 25.3%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Seahawks38.5%leaned — faked the run · +12.9 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.56× that swing) · 13 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21% to 83%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals50.0%right on their number · −0.0 vs their 50.0%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 48%
Tendencies room →Cardinals30.8%inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 13 dropbacks
Seahawks21.8%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 32%
Tendencies room →Cardinals15.4%inside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 13 dropbacks
Seahawks16.4%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
SEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 22.2%, 25.6 points below their season mean of 47.8% and 2.6 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
22/44, 258 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-11.9 expected points added · -9.9% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
10/12, 178 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
4.1 expected points added · +18.9% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
5/6 for 93 yds, 1 TD
50% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba banked 7.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBrideTE · Alpha Receiver | 27.7 | +5.2 | 84% | 78% | 30% | 30% | 9/13, 127 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.3 | +7.0 | 42% | 85% | 50% | 80% | 5/6, 93 yd, 1 TD |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 19.4 | −12.5 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 22/44, 258 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, 31 yd |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 14.3 | −10.0 | 91% | 89% | 27% | 42% | 3/12, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Committee Back | 14.3 | +2.9 | 37% | 23% | 0% | — | 14 car, 83 yd, 1 TD |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 13.4 | +3.5 | 42% | 44% | 9% | 1% | 4 car, 64 yd · 3/4, 40 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +6.4 | 53% | 69% | 17% | 14% | 2/2, 74 yd |
| George HolaniRB | 9.1 | +4.5 | 18% | 8% | 0% | — | 7 car, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Committee Back | 8.0 | −3.8 | 44% | 62% | 8% | 0% | 14 car, 67 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | −4.1 | 92% | 89% | 16% | 11% | 4/7, 34 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +2.8 | 39% | 36% | 0% | — | 2 car, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 4.9 | −2.8 | 90% | — | 0% | — | 10/12, 178 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, -2 yd |
| Bam KnightRB · Committee Back | 4.3 | −9.8 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −0.8 | 37% | 29% | 7% | 7% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.2 | 34% | 62% | 8% | 0% | 2 car, 20 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Elijah ArroyoTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | 0.0 | 47% | 69% | 8% | 3% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Michael CarterRB | 0.4 | −1.6 | 11% | 9% | 0% | — | 3 car, 4 yd |
| AJ BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −0.3 | 37% | 46% | 0% | — | 2 car, 3 yd |
| Kedon SlovisQB | 0.0 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Zay JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.0 | 14% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Simi FehokoWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 28% | 27% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Robbie OuztsRB | 0.0 | — | 44% | 23% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brady RussellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cody WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 73% | 31% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Nick KallerupTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.2 | 48% | 23% | 8% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Drew LockQB | -0.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:32) 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett sacked at ARI 32 for -11 yards (48-T.Knight). FUMBLES (48-T.Knight) [48-T.Knight], RECOVERED by SEA-0-D.Lawrence at ARI 34. 0-D.Lawrence for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 9:32 · Cardinals · 2nd & 11 at ARI 43 · lost 9 · -8.35 EP · −15.7% win probability
167 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 178 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 84 yards from the ARI 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cardinals0
Seahawks6Cardinals0Seahawks7How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Cardinals0Seahawks13Cardinals0Seahawks14Cardinals0Seahawks20Cardinals0Seahawks21Cardinals0Seahawks27Cardinals0Seahawks28Cardinals0Seahawks34Cardinals0Seahawks35Cardinals6Seahawks35Cardinals7Seahawks35Cardinals7Seahawks38Cardinals13Seahawks38Cardinals15Seahawks38Cardinals15Seahawks41Cardinals21Seahawks41Cardinals22Seahawks41Cardinals22Seahawks44Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 22/44 | 258 | 2 | 0 | 5 | −11.9 |
| Kedon Slovis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emari Demercado | 4 | 64 | 16.0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Bam Knight |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 9 | 13 | 127 | 1 | 30% | +14.7 |
| Emari Demercado | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 9% | +1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Williams | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Simon | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 10/12 | 178 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_10_ARI_SEA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -7 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 66 — over by 21.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 10 |
| 28 |
| 2.8 |
| 0 |
| −5.1 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | −0.3 |
| Michael Wilson | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 16% | −0.1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 3 | 12 | 33 | 1 | 27% | −2.8 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 7% | +0.6 |
| Bam Knight | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 9% | −3.7 |
| Zay Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −1.0 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Budda Baker | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Robinson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Burke | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dalvin Tomlinson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Stills | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
| 83 |
| 5.9 |
| 1 |
| +3.9 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 | −1.1 |
| George Holani | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 1 | +0.4 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | −5.2 |
| Drew Lock | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5 | 6 | 93 | 1 | 50% | +2.6 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 2 | 74 | 0 | 17% | +7.4 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8% | +0.1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −0.2 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8% | −0.2 |
| Nick Kallerup | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Emmanwori | 5 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 4 |
| Tyrice Knight | 6 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Okada | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drake Thomas | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coby Bryant | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeMarcus Lawrence | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick O'Connell | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riq Woolen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nehemiah Pritchett | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
