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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Falcons171 of 180 plays carry both curves
(6:16) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +27.1 for ColtsExpected points +6.43 for ColtsThe model had Falcons 4 points higher than the market did.play 135
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:16IND +27% win prob(6:16) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 6:50IND +23% win prob(6:50) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 84-T.Warren pushed ob at ATL 33 for 23 yards (24-A.Terrell).
4th · 1:17IND +19% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren ran ob at ATL 30 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).
Overtime · 8:19ATL +18% win prob(8:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 22 for -12 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
3rd · 10:28ATL +18% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at ATL 35 for -12 yards (27-J.Pearce). FUMBLES (27-J.Pearce) [27-J.Pearce], touched at ATL 41, RECOVERED by ATL-11-J.Walker at ATL 44. 11-J.Walker to ATL 44 for no gain (28-J.Taylor).
4th · 1:32ATL +18% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 41 for -11 yards (17-A.Ebiketie).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonathan Taylor's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 3:36 left in overtime put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:40Jonathan Taylor·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+60–6
4th0:29Mike Badgley·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+325–25
Overtime3:36Jonathan Taylor·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+625–31
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryColts
Falcons3–6Colts
293Total yards519
4.9Yards per play6.9
45%Success rate55%
0%Third-down rate17%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays13
21First downs26
3Sacks taken7
1Turnovers2
The read
Colts ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Falcons: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.15Colts: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Falcons: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.01Colts: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Falcons: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.34Colts: +0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 60 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Colts’s 75 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Colts 7.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
IND's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 83.3% in week 9 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 10.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 35.7 points.
IND's early-down pass rate turned over: 77.8% in week 9 against 50.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Colts12.5%
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteIND's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 52.6 points above their season mean of 47.4% and 1.5 times their own 35.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
64Ryan NeuzilC · Every snap100%63 snaps
71Elijah WilkinsonT · Every snap100%63 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%63 snaps
68Kyle HintonG · Every snap100%63 snaps
9Michael Penix Jr.QB · Every snap100%63 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time98%62 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Full-time98%62 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Full-time92%58 snaps
1Darnell MooneyWR · Full-time90%57 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Full-time86%54 snaps
87David SillsWR · Rotational49%31 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational40%25 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Rotational37%23 snaps
4KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational3%2 snaps
85Teagan QuitorianoTE · Situational3%2 snaps
52Jovaughn GwynC · Situational2%1 snap
82Casey WashingtonWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Mike HughesCBLeonard FloydDELaCale LondonDTJordan FullerFSMatthew BergeronGJoshua GrayGAndrew StueberT
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Taylor up+28% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:16) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 6:16 · Colts · 2nd & 2 at IND 17 · gained 83 · +6.43 EP · +27.6% win probability
169 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 91 yards from the IND 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
50%
Yards
811
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.1649%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.2259%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.3944%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15+0.2133%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+1.0147%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.5455%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Falcons 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Falcons 46
Falcons0Colts6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 1
Falcons6Colts6
Falcons7Colts6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Colts 1
Falcons7Colts12
Falcons7Colts13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Falcons 37
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Colts 41
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 2 to the Colts 26
2nd quarter34 plays
No good7 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Falcons 35
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 43 to the Falcons 44
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 7 to the Colts 16
Falcons13Colts13
Falcons14Colts13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Colts 16
Intercepted8 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Colts 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Falcons17Colts13
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Colts 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Falcons 20
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Falcons 46
How the play was built
A screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Falcons 5
The period ended3 plays, from the Falcons 7 to the Falcons 11
4th quarter52 plays
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Falcons17Colts16
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 47 to the Falcons 14
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 41
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Falcons17Colts22
Touchdown3 plays, from the Colts 9 to the Colts 17
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Falcons23Colts22
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Falcons25Colts22
Touchdown13 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Colts 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.4 seconds
Falcons25Colts25
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 48 to the Falcons 26
The period ended4 plays
Overtime16 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 36
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Falcons25Colts31
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 43 to the Falcons 8
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -6.5
Closing total
48.5
Falcons moneyline
+250
Colts moneyline
-310
Colts closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 56 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Shane Steichen
Overtime · 9:10
IND +16% win prob
(9:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 1-D.Mooney [20-N.Cross]. PENALTY on IND-29-M.Blackmon, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 31 - No Play.
4th · 1:07ATL +14% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at ATL 36 for -6 yards (36-R.Harrison).
