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2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

25

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

31

IND -6.5 no coverO 48.5 ✓Dome

Indianapolis Colts 31–25. Biggest swing: Q4 6:16, IND +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4IND ↑ATL ↓
Q4 · 6:16ATL 17 — IND 22IND ball · 2nd & 2IND 57%

(6:16) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 6:16IND +27% win prob(6:16) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. OT · 6:50IND +23% win prob(6:50) 17-D.Jones pass deep right to 84-T.Warren pushed ob at ATL 33 for 23 yards (24-A.Terrell).
  3. Q4 · 1:17IND +19% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren ran ob at ATL 30 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).
  4. OT · 8:19ATL +18% win prob(8:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 22 for -12 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:40IND Touchdown

    (8:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — IND 6
  2. Q1 · 6:10ATL Touchdown

    (6:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — IND 6
  3. Q1 · 5:27IND Touchdown

    (5:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — IND 13
  4. Q2 · 3:30ATL Touchdown

    (3:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep right to 5-D.London for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 14 — IND 13
  5. Q3 · 12:30ATL Field goal

    (12:30) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 17 — IND 13
  6. Q4 · 9:04IND Field goal

    (9:04) 12-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: ATL 17 — IND 16
  7. Q4 · 6:16IND Touchdown

    (6:16) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: ATL 17 — IND 22
  8. Q4 · 1:48ATL Touchdown

    (1:48) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: ATL 25 — IND 22
  9. Q4 · 0:29IND Field goal

    (:29) 12-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: ATL 25 — IND 25
  10. OT · 3:36IND Touchdown

    (3:36) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: ATL 25 — IND 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsColts
Offensive plays6075
Total yards293519 (edge)
Yards per play4.96.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.070.15 (edge)
Success rate45%55% (edge)
Dropback rate53%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.25-0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.140.34 (edge)
Third downs0/82/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)713 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2126 (edge)
Sacks taken3 (edge)7
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Daniel JonesQB

19/26, 255 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.1 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Michael Penix Jr.QB

12/28, 177 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-8.1 expected points added · -16.3% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

32 att, 244 yds, 3 TD

9.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

17 att, 84 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

6/8 for 104 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Tyler WarrenTE

8/10 for 99 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 259454:02Turnover on downs
2ATLATL 28431:43Fumble
3INDATL 233230:39Touchdown +6
4ATLATL 197612:29Touchdown +7
5INDIND 354650:48Touchdown +7
6ATLATL 278282:40Punt
7INDIND 211686:59Missed field goal
8ATLATL 43411:47Punt
9INDIND 7491:59Punt
10ATLATL 457553:29Touchdown +7
11INDIND 148253:17Interception
12ATLATL 28100:08End of half
13ATLATL 318442:34Field goal +3
14INDATL 44532:05Fumble
15ATLATL 44420:41Punt
16INDIND 1314758:53Turnover on downs
17ATLATL 76211:19Punt
18INDATL 479365:28Field goal +3
19ATLATL 237182:05Punt
20INDIND 93910:53Touchdown +6
21ATLATL 2911734:18Touchdown +8
22INDATL 489221:19Field goal +3
23ATLATL 26300:25Turnover on downs
24ATLATL 307-132:31Punt
25INDIND 437573:58Touchdown +6

10 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 91 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Michael Penix Jr.12/28177103-8.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson17844.900.2
Tyler Allgeier11575.223.8
Michael Penix Jr.1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London68104132%7.8
Kyle Pitts2538020%0.6
Darnell Mooney1817032%-3.3
Charlie Woerner111404%1.2
Bijan Robinson22408%-1.8
David Sills01004%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Xavier Watts650.000
Jessie Bates630.012
David Onyemata430.000
Ronnie Harrison521.000
Jalon Walker421.000
A.J. Terrell330.000
Keith Taylor420.000
Kaden Elliss151.001
Zach Harrison141.000
Billy Bowman Jr.140.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones19/26255117-2.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor322447.639.5
Daniel Jones7537.602.1
Ashton Dulin12222.001.9
Tyler Goodson144.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Warren81099038%7.8
Alec Pierce4784127%5.9
Jonathan Taylor3342012%1.7
Michael Pittman221908%1.1
Ameer Abdullah11804%0.0
Josh Downs12308%-3.7
Mo Alie-Cox01004%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin641.000
Germaine Pratt340.001
Nick Cross341.000
Sauce Gardner420.001
Adetomiwa Adebawore140.000
Camryn Bynum411.000
Grover Stewart120.000
Laiatu Latu210.000
Tyler Goodson110.000
Mekhi Blackmon110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -6.5
Closing total
48.5
ATL moneyline
+250
IND moneyline
-310

Colts closed -6.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 56 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
ATL 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Shane Steichen