2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Minnesota Vikings

BAL -4.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓DomeRavens closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Baltimore Ravens 27–19. Biggest swing: Q2 0:05, BAL +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:05BAL 9 — MIN 10BAL ball · 1st & 10BAL 65%

(:05) 33-T.Loop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:05BAL +14% win prob(:05) 33-T.Loop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q3 · 10:19BAL +13% win prob33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to MIN 0. 4-M.Price to MIN 23 for 23 yards (39-K.Jackson; 32-T.Simpson). FUMBLES (39-K.Jackson), RECOVERED by BAL-39-K.Jackson at MIN 23.
Q1 · 10:40MIN +10% win prob(10:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 1-J.Nailor to BAL 4 for 62 yards (12-A.Gilman).
Q2 · 14:03MIN +9% win prob(14:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 1-J.Nailor to BAL 33 for 18 yards (24-M.Starks) [98-T.Jones].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:50MIN Touchdown
(9:50) 33-A.Jones left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 0 — MIN 7
Q1 · 4:29BAL Field goal
(4:29) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 3 — MIN 7
Q2 · 11:00MIN Field goal
(11:00) 16-W.Reichard 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: BAL 3 — MIN 10
Q2 · 1:14BAL Field goal
(1:14) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 6 — MIN 10
Q2 · 0:05BAL Field goal
(:05) 33-T.Loop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 9 — MIN 10
Q3 · 10:22BAL Field goal
(10:22) 33-T.Loop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 12 — MIN 10
Q3 · 8:09BAL Touchdown
(8:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 43-J.Hill up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 19 — MIN 10
Q3 · 2:20MIN Field goal
(2:20) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: BAL 19 — MIN 13
Q4 · 10:44BAL Touchdown
(10:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: BAL 27 — MIN 13
Q4 · 3:28MIN Touchdown
(3:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BAL 27 — MIN 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Vikings
Offensive plays	66	62
Total yards	324	365 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.00 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	47% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	52%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.20
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.01
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	3/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Vikings outgained Ravens 365–324 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

J.J. McCarthyQB

20/42, 248 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-9.9 expected points added · -11.6% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

17/29, 176 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.4 expected points added · -13.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

20 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

J.J. McCarthyQB

5 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Jalen NailorWR

5/6 for 124 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 15.3 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

4/6 for 75 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 31	5	8	1:47	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 14	8	86	3:27	Touchdown +7
3	BAL	BAL 32	12	42	5:21	Field goal +3
4	MIN	MIN 29	5	8	2:19	Punt
5	BAL	BAL 15	4	8	2:11	Punt
6	MIN	MIN 43	7	31	3:59	Field goal +3
7	BAL	BAL 30	5	5	1:46	Punt
8	MIN	MIN 16	5	26	2:23	Interception
9	BAL	BAL 22	10	63	5:36	Field goal +3
10	MIN	MIN 35	5	5	0:41	Punt
11	BAL	BAL 25	4	50	0:28	Field goal +3
12	MIN	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
13	MIN	MIN 24	5	26	2:19	Interception
14	BAL	BAL 29	6	45	2:22	Field goal +3
15	MIN	—	1	0	0:06	Fumble
16	BAL	MIN 23	7	23	2:11	Touchdown +7
17	MIN	MIN 33	6	26	2:18	Turnover on downs
18	BAL	MIN 38	4	0	0:49	Missed field goal
19	MIN	MIN 46	7	34	2:39	Field goal +3
20	BAL	BAL 33	13	69	6:36	Touchdown +8
21	MIN	MIN 29	8	20	3:25	Turnover on downs
22	BAL	BAL 14	4	-7	1:40	Punt
23	MIN	MIN 35	10	66	2:12	Touchdown +6
24	BAL	BAL 17	8	18	1:39	Punt
25	MIN	MIN 8	6	37	1:35	Turnover on downs
26	BAL	MIN 40	1	0	0:09	End of game

10 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 86 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	17/29	176	1	0	1	-1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	20	75	3.8	0	-2.4
Lamar Jackson	9	36	4.0	0	1.0
Keaton Mitchell	4	31	7.8	0	0.3
Zay Flowers	1	6	6.0	0	-0.3
Patrick Ricard	1	3	3.0	0	0.5
Justice Hill	1	1	1.0	1	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	4	6	75	0	21%	3.1
Charlie Kolar	1	2	23	0	7%	0.6
Isaiah Likely	2	4	17	0	14%	-2.3
DeAndre Hopkins	2	4	16	0	14%	-1.8
Mark Andrews	3	5	14	1	18%	0.3
Justice Hill	1	2	12	0	7%	-0.3
Rashod Bateman	1	2	10	0	7%	2.3
Derrick Henry	3	3	9	0	11%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nate Wiggins	6	1	0.0	0	1
Roquan Smith	3	3	0.0	0	1
Teddye Buchanan	5	1	0.0	0	0
Malaki Starks	2	2	0.0	1	1
Marlon Humphrey	2	2	0.0	1	1
Alohi Gilman	2	1	0.0	0	1
Keyon Martin	3	0	0.0	0	0
Travis Jones	3	0	1.0	0	2
Basil Okoye	1	1	0.0	0	1
Mike Green	2	0	0.0	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
J.J. McCarthy	20/42	248	1	2	1	-9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
J.J. McCarthy	5	48	9.6	0	0.0
Aaron Jones	9	47	5.2	1	-0.1
Jordan Mason	4	25	6.3	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jalen Nailor	5	6	124	1	15%	15.3
Justin Jefferson	4	12	37	0	29%	-11.1
Jordan Addison	3	11	35	0	27%	-8.0
Aaron Jones	3	6	22	0	15%	-2.5
Adam Thielen	2	3	16	0	7%	-1.4
T.J. Hockenson	2	2	8	0	5%	-0.3
Jordan Mason	1	1	6	0	2%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Blake Cashman	4	7	0.0	0
Jalen Redmond	5	3	0.0	0
Harrison Smith	5	2	0.0	0
Isaiah Rodgers	5	1	0.0	0
Eric Wilson	4	1	0.0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	2	2	0.0	2
Jonathan Allen	4	0	1.0	0
Byron Murphy	4	0	0.0	0
Josh Metellus	2	1	0.0	0
Dallas Turner	1	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -4.5
Closing total: 48.5
BAL moneyline: -230
MIN moneyline: +190

Ravens closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 46 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: BAL 10 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Kevin O'Connell