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2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
RavensBaltimore27
BY 8final margin
VikingsMinnesota19
Baltimore Ravens 27 at Minnesota Vikings 19. Final.
Ravens -4.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 10
Baltimore Ravens 27, Vikings 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:05, 1st and 10, on Tyler Loop — 13.6 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:05 · 1st and 10
Tyler Loop
Vikings
(:05) 33-T.Loop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Dome
Ravens closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Baltimore Ravens 27–19. Biggest swing: Q2 0:05, Vikings +13.6% win probability on one snap.
13.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jalen NailorVikingsQ1 10:40(10:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 1-J.Nailor to BAL 4 for 62 yards (12-A.Gilman).
10.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetRavensQ3 10:1933-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to MIN 0. 4-M.Price to MIN 23 for 23 yards (39-K.Jackson; 32-T.Simpson). FUMBLES (39-K.Jackson), RECOVERED by BAL-39-K.Jackson at MIN 23.
13.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Vikings at 3 of 14 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Ravens at 6 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Ravens174 of 186 plays carry both curves
(:05) 33-T.Loop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Swing +13.6 for VikingsExpected points −0.09 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 22 points higher than the market did.play 81
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:05BAL +14% win prob(:05) 33-T.Loop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
3rd · 10:19BAL +13% win prob33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to MIN 0. 4-M.Price to MIN 23 for 23 yards (39-K.Jackson; 32-T.Simpson). FUMBLES (39-K.Jackson), RECOVERED by BAL-39-K.Jackson at MIN 23.
1st · 10:40MIN +10% win prob(10:40) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 1-J.Nailor to BAL 4 for 62 yards (12-A.Gilman).
2nd · 14:03MIN +9% win prob(14:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep middle to 1-J.Nailor to BAL 33 for 18 yards (24-M.Starks) [98-T.Jones].
3rd · 12:55BAL +7% win prob(12:55) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep middle intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey at BAL 2. 44-M.Humphrey ran ob at BAL 29 for 27 yards (74-D.Jackson; 33-A.Jones).
3rd · 12:35MIN +7% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers pushed ob at MIN 27 for 22 yards (2-I.Rodgers).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Loop's 22-yard field goal with 10:22 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Ravens ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Ravens: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.16Vikings: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Ravens: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.20Vikings: −0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Ravens: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.01Vikings: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 66 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Vikings’s 62 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Vikings 3.
NoteVikings outgained Ravens 365-324 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
BAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 10.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.0 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
BAL's sack or hit rate, 25.0%, is past their previous high of 20.7% in week 3 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 9.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 60.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 10.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.3 points.
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 45.5% in week 9 against 69.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +10.9 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Vikings11.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.7 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteBAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 34.9 points below their season mean of 34.9% and 1.4 times their own 24.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
72Andrew VorheesG · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleG · Every snap100%70 snaps
70Roger RosengartenT · Every snap100%70 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%70 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%70 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Full-time83%58 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation67%47 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation63%44 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation53%37 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Rotational43%30 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Rotational27%19 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational27%19 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Situational11%8 snaps
34Keaton MitchellRB · Situational7%5 snaps
83LaJohntay WesterWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Aeneas PeeblesDTEmery Jones Jr.GCooper RushQBRasheen AliRBJoe NoteboomTDevontez WalkerWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Loop kicks−18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
33-T.Loop kicks 65 yards from BAL 35 to MIN 0. 4-M.Price to MIN 23 for 23 yards (39-K.Jackson; 32-T.Simpson). FUMBLES (39-K.Jackson), RECOVERED by BAL-39-K.Jackson at MIN 23.
Q3 10:19 · Vikings · Kickoff at BAL 35 · gained nothing · -6.25 EP · −17.9% win probability
172 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 181. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 86 yards from the MIN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
42%
Yards
688
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.1979%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1072%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR17-0.2112%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.2333%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12+0.1075%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1440%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Ravens 39
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Ravens0Vikings6
Ravens0Vikings7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Ravens 4
Ravens3Vikings7
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Vikings 26
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Vikings 37
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Ravens 19
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt1 play
Ravens3Vikings10
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 43 to the Ravens 31
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 35
Intercepted6 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 37
Ravens6Vikings10
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Vikings 10
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Vikings 40
Ravens9Vikings10
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Vikings 12
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Vikings 24 to midfield
Ravens12Vikings10
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Vikings 4
Fumble lost1 play
Ravens18Vikings10
Ravens19Vikings10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 1
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Ravens 46
No good4 plays
Ravens19Vikings13
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 46 to the Ravens 20
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Vikings 36
4th quarter58 plays
Ravens25Vikings13
Ravens27Vikings13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Vikings 2
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Ravens 13
Punt4 plays
Ravens27Vikings19
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Ravens 5
Punt11 plays, from the Ravens 17 to the Ravens 35
The period ended8 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Vikings 40
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -4.5
Closing total
48.5
Ravens moneyline
-230
Vikings moneyline
+190
Ravens closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 46 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Ravens 10 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Kevin O'Connell
2nd · 0:19MIN +7% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers ran ob at MIN 25 for 27 yards (55-E.Wilson).
2nd · 0:10MIN +5% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at MIN 35 for -10 yards (15-D.Turner). PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at MIN 25 - No Play.
