2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Miami DolphinsWinner

BUF -8.5 upsetU 50.5 ✓Bills closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, MIA +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 15:00BUF 0 — MIA 13MIA ball · 2nd & 11BUF 62%

(15:00) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-31-M.Hairston, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 15:00MIA +15% win prob(15:00) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-31-M.Hairston, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q3 · 6:05BUF +15% win prob(6:05) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 9-I.Melifonwu at MIA -2. Touchback.
Q4 · 7:19BUF +12% win prob(7:19) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left tackle to MIA 44 for 15 yards (20-J.Brooks; 23-J.Jones). FUMBLES (20-J.Brooks), RECOVERED by MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick at MIA 38.
Q4 · 12:44MIA +10% win prob(12:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:53MIA Touchdown
(4:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 6-M.Washington for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — MIA 7
Q2 · 15:00MIA Touchdown
(15:00) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-31-M.Hairston, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Score after this play: BUF 0 — MIA 13
Q2 · 3:08MIA Field goal
(3:08) 47-R.Patterson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: BUF 0 — MIA 16
Q4 · 12:44BUF Touchdown
(12:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BUF 6 — MIA 16
Q4 · 6:42MIA Touchdown
(6:42) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane up the middle for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 6 — MIA 23
Q4 · 3:44BUF Touchdown
(3:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 85-J.Hawes for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 13 — MIA 23
Q4 · 3:24MIA Touchdown
(3:24) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left tackle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 13 — MIA 30

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Dolphins
Offensive plays	66	51
Total yards	376 (edge)	371
Yards per play	5.7	7.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07	0.31 (edge)
Success rate	42%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	41%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13	0.43 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.57	0.23 (edge)
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	9
First downs gained on snaps	18	18
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Bills outgained Dolphins 376–371 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

28/40, 306 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.2 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

15/21, 173 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

9.0 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

22 att, 174 yds, 2 TD

8.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

13 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-5.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

5/7 for 84 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

7/9 for 58 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 35	4	4	1:27	Interception
2	BUF	BUF 25	4	9	1:17	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 8	13	77	7:27	Touchdown +7
4	BUF	BUF 29	7	22	3:33	Turnover on downs
5	MIA	MIA 49	4	51	1:24	Touchdown +6
6	BUF	BUF 31	5	0	1:07	Punt
7	MIA	MIA 23	4	8	2:12	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 15	6	55	2:31	Fumble
9	MIA	MIA 5	10	67	5:59	Field goal +3
10	BUF	BUF 31	5	-3	1:54	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 33	5	14	0:26	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 20	3	7	0:43	End of half
13	BUF	BUF 18	15	77	9:01	Interception
14	MIA	MIA 20	7	39	3:59	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 2	9	98	4:24	Touchdown +6
16	MIA	MIA 22	7	12	3:41	Interception
17	BUF	BUF 12	5	44	1:45	Fumble
18	MIA	MIA 38	3	62	0:39	Touchdown +7
19	BUF	BUF 35	13	65	2:55	Touchdown +7
20	MIA	BUF 37	5	37	0:19	Touchdown +7
21	BUF	BUF 35	5	2	2:13	Punt
22	MIA	MIA 2	2	0	1:04	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 98 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	28/40	306	2	1	3	4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Cook	13	53	4.1	-5.5
Josh Allen	4	31	7.8	-0.8
Mitchell Trubisky	1	4	4.0	-0.6
Ty Johnson	1	2	2.0	-0.1
Elijah Moore	1	-1	-1.0	-1.0
Ray Davis	2	-2	-1.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Khalil Shakir	7	9	58	0	23%	3.8
Keon Coleman	3	8	46	1	21%	0.1
Dawson Knox	3	4	37	0	10%	-3.1
Dalton Kincaid	2	3	37	0	8%	2.0
Jackson Hawes	1	2	26	1	5%	-0.7
James Cook	5	5	24	0	13%	0.2
Ty Johnson	2	2	24	0	5%	0.7
Tyrell Shavers	1	1	24	0	3%	2.3
Curtis Samuel	1	1	21	0	3%	3.1
Elijah Moore	2	2	9	0	5%	-0.1
Ray Davis	1	2	0	0	5%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jordan Poyer	3	5	0	0
Cam Lewis	4	3	0	1
Cole Bishop	6	1	1	1
Joey Bosa	4	0	0	0
Terrel Bernard	3	1	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	2	0	0
Matt Milano	1	3	0	0
Javon Solomon	2	1	0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	0	0	0
Ja'Marcus Ingram	1	0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	15/21	173	2	2	0	9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
De'Von Achane	22	174	7.9	2	8.6
Jaylen Wright	5	17	3.4	0	-1.2
Alec Ingold	1	6	6.0	0	0.7
Malik Washington	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1
Tua Tagovailoa	2	-1	-0.5	0	0.0
Ollie Gordon II	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	5	7	84	1	33%	4.5
De'Von Achane	6	6	51	0	29%	1.4
Greg Dulcich	1	4	22	0	19%	0.3
Malik Washington	2	3	9	1	14%	1.3
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	1	1	7	0	5%	1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordyn Brooks	5	6	0.0	0
Tyrel Dodson	5	4	0.0	0
Jack Jones	3	3	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	6	0	0.0	1
Julius Brents	5	0	0.0	1
Dante Trader Jr.	2	3	0.0	0
Jason Marshall Jr.	3	1	0.0	1
Jordan Phillips	2	1	0.0	0
Bradley Chubb	2	1	1.0	0
Jordan Colbert	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -8.5
Closing total: 50.5
BUF moneyline: -455
MIA moneyline: +350

Bills closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 43 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 84°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: BUF 7 days · MIA 10 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Mike McDaniel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.