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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 10
It turned at Q2 15:00, 2nd and 11, on Jaylen Waddle — 15.2 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 2nd and 11
Jaylen Waddle
Dolphins
(15:00) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-31-M.Hairston, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Miami Dolphins 30–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Dolphins +15.2% win probability on one snap.
15.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.57 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Bills at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.43 expected points per dropback, against Bills at +0.13 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Bills at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 18.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(15:00) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-31-M.Hairston, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Malik Washington's 9-yard touchdown catch with 4:53 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Malik Washington9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+70–7
Jaylen Waddle38-yd TD catch38-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoa · kick no good, wide right+60–137 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 66 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 51 at 41%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Dolphins 4.
Bills outgained Dolphins 376-371 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's play-action rate, 10.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.3 points.
MIA's blitz rate sent, 23.4%, is past their previous low of 26.7% in week 2 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
MIA's pass rate over expected, −14.2 pts, is past their previous low of −11.2 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 42.0% in week 9 against 68.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points.
BUF's sack or hit rate turned over: 35.9% in week 9 against 9.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Bills-2.7 ptsright on their number · +0.4 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 65 snaps
Dolphins-14.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.6 vs their -5.6 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 84%
Tendencies room →Bills68.8%leaned — passed early · +18.4 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (+1.60× that swing) · 48 early downs
Dolphins38.1%inside their normal wobble · −12.9 vs their 50.9%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Bills10.6%leaned — dropped back clean · −16.5 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Dolphins38.1%inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 61.1%.
Dolphins—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 7% to 59%
Tendencies room →Bills23.8%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Dolphins23.4%leaned — sat back · −13.4 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 38%
Tendencies room →Bills9.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Dolphins14.9%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
BUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 68.8%, 18.4 points above their season mean of 50.3% and 1.6 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
28/40, 306 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
4.2 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
15/21, 173 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
9.0 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
De'Von Achane banked 19.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von AchaneRB · Bell Cow Back | 40.5 | +19.6 | 89% | 90% | 29% | 0% | 22 car, 174 yd, 2 TD · 6/6, 51 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.4 | +5.5 | 83% | 81% | 33% | 86% | 5/7, 84 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 19.3 | −2.6 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 28/40, 306 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 31 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Featured Receiver | 13.6 | −1.3 | 62% | 74% | 21% | 41% | 3/8, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Featured Receiver | 12.8 | −1.8 | 66% | 83% | 23% | 16% | 7/9, 58 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 10.8 | +1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/21, 173 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, -1 yd |
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 10.7 | −4.1 | 50% | 36% | 13% | 4% | 13 car, 53 yd · 5/5, 24 yd |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +4.1 | 43% | 23% | 5% | 12% | 1/2, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +1.7 | 45% | 67% | 14% | 13% | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/3, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | −1.1 | 68% | 53% | 10% | 8% | 3/4, 37 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −0.3 | 26% | 28% | 8% | 10% | 2/3, 37 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 4.6 | +1.0 | 40% | 51% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 24 yd |
| Tyrell ShaversWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +1.6 | 35% | 40% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 24 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Featured Receiver | 3.2 | −2.5 | 58% | 81% | 19% | 0% | 1/4, 22 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.5 | 35% | 34% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −0.8 | 37% | 34% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, -1 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Jaylen WrightRB | 1.7 | −0.9 | 19% | 10% | 0% | — | 5 car, 17 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.2 | 47% | 57% | 5% | 4% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 0.8 | −5.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Alec IngoldRB | 0.6 | +0.3 | 40% | 33% | 0% | — | 1 car, 6 yd |
| Mitchell TrubiskyQB | 0.4 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB | -0.3 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-31-M.Hairston, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 15:00 · Dolphins · 2nd & 11 at BUF 38 · gained 38 · +4.42 EP · +8.4% win probability
145 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 157 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 145 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 152. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 98 yards from the BUF 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bills0
Dolphins6Bills0Dolphins7Bills0Dolphins13Bills0Dolphins16Bills6Dolphins16Bills6Dolphins22Bills6Dolphins23Bills12Dolphins23Bills13Dolphins23Bills13Dolphins29Bills13Dolphins30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 28/40 | 306 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +4.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 | −5.5 |
| Josh Allen | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 7 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 23% | +3.8 |
| Keon Coleman | 3 | 8 | 46 | 1 | 21% | +0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Poyer | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Bishop | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cam Lewis | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrel Bernard |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 15/21 | 173 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +9.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_10_BUF_MIA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 43 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Ray Davis | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 10% | −3.1 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 8% | +2.0 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 5% | −0.7 |
| James Cook | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 13% | +0.2 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 5% | +0.7 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 3% | +2.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | +3.1 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.5 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Solomon | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baylon Spector | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 |
| 174 |
| 7.9 |
| 2 |
| +8.6 |
| Jaylen Wright | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 7 | 84 | 1 | 33% | +4.5 |
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 29% | +1.4 |
| Greg Dulcich | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 19% | +0.3 |
| Malik Washington | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 14% | +1.3 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | +1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julius Brents | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dante Trader Jr. | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Marshall Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Colbert | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Phillips | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
