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New York Jets 27, Browns 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 14:21, 2nd and 17, on Breece Hall — 25.8 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:21 · 2nd and 17
Breece Hall
Jets
(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 20-B.Hall for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-G.Delpit].
Browns closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 14:21, Jets +25.8% win probability on one snap.
25.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetJetsQ1 6:3425-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 1. 34-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.7pts
Ronnie Hickman Jr.BrownsQ2 10:50(10:50) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 7-J.Fields pass deep middle intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Hickman at NYJ 37. 33-R.Hickman to NYJ 22 for 15 yards (5-G.Wilson).
13.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 34% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 22% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — -0.06 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.50 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Browns owned this one and still lost it — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Browns161 of 173 plays carry both curves
(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 20-B.Hall for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-G.Delpit].
Swing +25.8 for JetsExpected points +4.89 for JetsThe model had Jets 7 points higher than the market did.play 130
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 14:21NYJ +26% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 20-B.Hall for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-G.Delpit].
1st · 6:34NYJ +15% win prob25-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 1. 34-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:50CLE +13% win prob(10:50) 61-M.Mitchell reported in as eligible. 7-J.Fields pass deep middle intended for 5-G.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Hickman at NYJ 37. 33-R.Hickman to NYJ 22 for 15 yards (5-G.Wilson).
1st · 6:01CLE +11% win prob(6:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to NYJ 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-28-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 10:21CLE +10% win prob(10:21) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel sacked at NYJ 40 for -7 yards (9-W.McDonald).
2nd · 0:01NYJ +9% win prob(:01) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Breece Hall's 42-yard touchdown catch with 14:21 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th6:17Nick Folk·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+317–27
4th3:00Andre Szmyt·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Sunahara+320–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryJets
Browns8–1Jets
278Total yards171
4.0Yards per play3.8
34%Success rate22%
38%Third-down rate27%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays7
18First downs9
6Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Browns ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Browns: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.29Jets: −0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Browns: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.50Jets: −0.50 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Browns: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.18Jets: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 70 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Jets’s 45 at 36%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Jets 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's sack or hit rate, 43.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 18.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 25.0% in week 1.
2.9 times their own weekly swing above their number.
16 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 29.4%, is past their previous low of 37.5% in week 6 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
34 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points.
low through week 10Against their seasonOver Expected
NYJ's pass rate over expected, −22.5 pts, is past their previous low of −18.8 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
45 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
CLE's blitz rate sent, 43.8%, is past their previous high of 36.1% in week 7 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
16 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 12 pts
off script — got home · +24.6 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+2.89× that swing) · 16 dropbacks
Jets16.3%
leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteCLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 43.8%, 24.6 points above their season mean of 19.1% and 2.9 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields pass+25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 20-B.Hall for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-G.Delpit].
Q4 14:21 · Jets · 2nd & 17 at CLE 42 · gained 42 · +4.89 EP · +24.8% win probability
159 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 95 yards from the CLE 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
35%
Yards
447
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0255%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27-0.1459%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.2644%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.1214%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.9617%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 41 to the Jets 43
Browns6Jets0
Browns7Jets0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 5 to the Jets 9
Browns7Jets6
Browns7Jets7
Touchdown2 plays
Browns7Jets13
Touchdown5 plays
Browns7Jets14
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 44
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 28
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Jets 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Browns13Jets14
Browns14Jets14
Touchdown2 plays
Browns14Jets17
Field goal12 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Browns 8
The period ended9 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 40
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Jets 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Browns17Jets17
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Jets 22
3rd quarter31 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 46
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 33
Punt5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Browns 38
4th quarter45 plays
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Browns17Jets23
Browns17Jets24
Touchdown3 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Jets 33
Browns17Jets27
Field goal7 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Browns 19
Browns20Jets27
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Jets 11
The period ended16 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Browns 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
