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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 10
It turned at Q4 14:21, 2nd and 17, on Breece Hall — 25.8 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Jets 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 14:21, Jets +25.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:21 · 2nd and 17
Breece Hall
Jets
(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 20-B.Hall for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-G.Delpit].
25.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 34% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 22% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — -0.06 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.50 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Browns owned this one and still lost it — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 20-B.Hall for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-G.Delpit].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Breece Hall's 42-yard touchdown catch with 14:21 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Breece Hall42-yd TD catch42-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin FieldsLead never changed again+717–249 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryJets
Browns ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 70 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Jets’s 45 at 36%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Jets 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's sack or hit rate, 43.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 18.8 points clear of the next team along.
16 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · +2.9σ from their own normal
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 29.4%, is past their previous low of 37.5% in week 6 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
34 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.1 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
NYJ's pass rate over expected, −22.5 pts, is past their previous low of −18.8 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
45 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
CLE's blitz rate sent, 43.8%, is past their previous high of 36.1% in week 7 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
16 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-6.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 70 snaps
Jets-22.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.2 vs their -9.3 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 45 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 88%
Tendencies room →Browns54.7%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 53 early downs
Jets29.4%off script — ran early · −25.3 vs their 54.7%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−2.10× that swing) · 34 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 45%
Tendencies room →Browns20.9%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Jets12.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 16 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Browns—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.2%.
Jets—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 44.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 56%
Tendencies room →Browns43.8%leaned — sent pressure · +14.6 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 16 dropbacks
Jets32.6%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 48%
Tendencies room →Browns43.8%off script — got home · +24.6 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+2.89× that swing) · 16 dropbacks
Jets16.3%leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
CLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 43.8%, 24.6 points above their season mean of 19.1% and 2.9 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
17/32, 167 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-7.4 expected points added · -16.4% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
6/11, 54 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-10.2 expected points added · -13.7% completion over expected
Receiving · CLE
4/7 for 44 yds, 0 TD
22% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Breece Hall banked 8.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon GabrielQB · Starter QB | 20.1 | +5.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/32, 167 yd, 2 TD · 5 car, 54 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.8 | +2.0 | 96% | 98% | 38% | 56% | 6/12, 78 yd, 1 TD |
| Breece HallRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.5 | +8.5 | 71% | 44% | 9% | 0% | 21 car, 83 yd · 1/1, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.5 | −3.3 | 52% | 35% | 9% | 2% | 22 car, 75 yd · 2/3, 10 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | +6.5 | 68% | 63% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Featured Receiver | 8.4 | −1.3 | 66% | 77% | 22% | 23% | 4/7, 44 yd |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +6.1 | 43% | 63% | 9% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 7.0 | +0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 6/11, 54 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 28 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +1.0 | 27% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 32 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Cedric TillmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −3.0 | 73% | 77% | 13% | 23% | 2/4, 11 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 2.1 | −0.2 | 29% | 56% | 9% | 0% | 3 car, 10 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Mason TaylorTE · Featured Receiver | 1.4 | −0.9 | 78% | 88% | 18% | 24% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Arian SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.7 | 67% | 63% | 0% | — | 1 car, 13 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.4 | 53% | 25% | 9% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Dylan SampsonRB | 0.9 | −1.3 | 30% | 35% | 3% | 1% | 2 car, -4 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| John Metchie IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −1.3 | 16% | 13% | 9% | 8% | 1 car, -7 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Jerome FordRB | 0.1 | −1.9 | 19% | 30% | 3% | 1% | 1 car, 1 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Gage LarvadainWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 23% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 12% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jamari ThrashWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 30% | 40% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Andrew BeckRB | 0.0 | — | 18% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 0.0 | −4.6 | 39% | 75% | 27% | 100% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Tyler JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 63% | 63% | 9% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Stone SmarttTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 20-B.Hall for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-G.Delpit].
Q4 14:21 · Jets · 2nd & 17 at CLE 42 · gained 42 · +4.89 EP · +24.8% win probability
159 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 95 yards from the CLE 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns6
Jets0Browns7Jets0Browns7Jets6Browns7Jets7Browns7Jets13Browns7Jets14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Browns13Jets14Browns14Jets14Browns14Jets17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Browns17Jets17How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Browns17Jets23Browns17Jets24Browns17Jets27Browns20Jets27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Gabriel | 17/32 | 167 | 2 | 0 | 6 | −7.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 22 | 75 | 3.4 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 5 | 54 | 10.8 | 0 | +4.9 |
| Malachi Corley |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 12 | 78 | 1 | 38% | +4.0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwesinger | 4 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 6/11 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −10.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_10_CLE_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 47 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 32 |
| 16.0 |
| 0 |
| +2.7 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Dylan Sampson | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.9 |
| 22% |
| −0.1 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 6% | +2.3 |
| Cedric Tillman | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 13% | −0.9 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Dylan Sampson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Malachi Corley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Jerome Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Jamari Thrash | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Ronnie Hickman Jr. | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mason Graham | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Wright | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McGuire | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Justin Fields | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Arian Smith | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Isaiah Davis | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.3 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 9% | +4.9 |
| Mason Taylor | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 18% | −1.3 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9% | −0.1 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9% | −1.2 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9% | −1.4 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Garrett Wilson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27% | −6.2 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Adams | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malachi Moore | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamien Sherwood | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will McDonald IV | 4 | 1 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Johnson II | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
