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2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · FedExField

Detroit LionsWinner

44

Washington Commanders

22

DET -8.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓

Detroit Lions 44–22 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:55, WAS +4% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3WAS ↑DET ↓
Q1 · 9:55DET 0 — WAS 0DET ball · 3rd & 6DET 83%

(9:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams to WAS 21 for 14 yards (23-T.Amos).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 9:55WAS +4% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams to WAS 21 for 14 yards (23-T.Amos).
  2. Q1 · 14:57DET +3% win prob(14:57) (Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez right tackle to WAS 31 for 5 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
  3. Q1 · 14:23WAS +3% win prob(14:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez up the middle to WAS 33 for 2 yards (32-B.Branch).
  4. Q1 · 13:45DET +3% win prob(13:45) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 86-Z.Ertz [34-A.Anzalone].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:29DET Touchdown

    (8:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 7 — WAS 0
  2. Q1 · 5:46WAS Field goal

    (5:46) 16-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: DET 7 — WAS 3
  3. Q1 · 1:58DET Touchdown

    (1:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 14 — WAS 3
  4. Q2 · 9:51DET Touchdown

    (9:51) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-4-F.Luvu was injured during the play. WAS-23-T.Amos was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-94-D.Payne, Disqualification, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: DET 22 — WAS 3
  5. Q2 · 3:41WAS Touchdown

    (3:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 22 — WAS 10
  6. Q2 · 0:14DET Field goal

    (:14) 39-J.Bates 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. PENALTY on WAS-20-Q.Martin, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    Score after this play: DET 25 — WAS 10
  7. Q3 · 12:11DET Touchdown

    (12:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 32 — WAS 10
  8. Q3 · 7:09WAS Touchdown

    (7:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 32 — WAS 16
  9. Q3 · 2:33DET Field goal

    (2:33) 39-J.Bates 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 35 — WAS 16
  10. Q4 · 12:58DET Touchdown

    (12:58) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 41 — WAS 16
  11. Q4 · 7:01WAS Touchdown

    (7:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 82-B.Sinnott for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 41 — WAS 22
  12. Q4 · 4:38DET Field goal

    (4:38) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: DET 44 — WAS 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsCommanders
Offensive plays6752
Total yards547 (edge)289
Yards per play8.2 (edge)5.6
Expected points added / play0.48 (edge)0.17
Success rate58% (edge)46%
Dropback rate52%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.69 (edge)0.46
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)-0.13
Third downs5/10 (edge)2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps30 (edge)16
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers00

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.48 expected points added per play vs 0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

25/33, 320 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

25.3 expected points added · +14.5% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Marcus MariotaQB

16/22, 213 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.9 expected points added · +14.3% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

15 att, 142 yds, 2 TD

9.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

David MontgomeryRB

15 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Jameson WilliamsWR

6/7 for 119 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 10.3 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

5/8 for 58 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1WASWAS 26571:32Punt
2DETDET 2211785:04Touchdown +7
3WASWAS 488312:41Field goal +3
4DETDET 3511653:49Touchdown +7
5WASWAS 277112:02Punt
6DETDET 139825:11Touchdown +8
7WASWAS 2512756:02Touchdown +7
8DETDET 3214643:28Field goal +3
9WASWAS 25200:11End of half
10DETDET 287722:54Touchdown +7
11WASWAS 3111695:01Touchdown +6
12DETDET 1810724:35Field goal +3
13WASWAS 21571:37Punt
14DETDET 167843:03Touchdown +6
15WASWAS 1913865:53Touchdown +6
16DETWAS 457152:23Field goal +3
17WASWAS 28532:25Punt
18DETDET 224152:09End of game

12 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 86 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff25/3332030025.3
Kyle Allen0/20000-1.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jahmyr Gibbs151429.529.5
David Montgomery15714.70-1.2
Kalif Raymond11010.000.9
Sione Vaki144.00-0.9
Kyle Allen1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jameson Williams67119122%10.3
Amon-Ra St. Brown5858125%4.1
Sam LaPorta5553016%5.8
Kalif Raymond4449013%4.3
Jahmyr Gibbs3430113%2.6
Isaac TeSlaa111103%0.8
David Montgomery11003%-0.7
Brock Wright01003%-0.5
Ross Dwelley01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jack Campbell450.000
Brian Branch431.500
Thomas Harper600.000
Tyler Lacy140.000
Roy Lopez320.500
Alex Anzalone320.000
Avonte Maddox400.000
Arthur Maulet210.001
Grant Stuard110.000
Amik Robertson200.000

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Marcus Mariota16/2221320210.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jacory Croskey-Merritt11302.70-4.2
Jeremy McNichols5255.001.3
Marcus Mariota5224.400.6
Chris Rodriguez Jr.6162.710.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Treylon Burks3358014%4.0
Zach Ertz4554023%2.9
Jaylin Lane114105%3.1
Deebo Samuel Sr.4529123%4.5
Robbie Chosen1417018%-1.7
John Bates12609%-0.2
Jeremy McNichols11405%-0.1
Ben Sinnott11415%1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Quan Martin360.000
Bobby Wagner630.000
Mike Sainristil350.000
Jeremy Reaves430.001
Jonathan Jones400.001
Frankie Luvu300.001
Sheldon Day120.000
Tyler Owens200.000
Javon Kinlaw110.000
Jacob Martin200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -8.5
Closing total
49.5
DET moneyline
-455
WAS moneyline
+350

Lions closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 66 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
64°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
DET 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Dan Quinn