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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Lions156 of 163 plays carry both curves
(9:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams to WAS 21 for 14 yards (23-T.Amos).
Swing −3.6 for CommandersExpected points −2.15 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 27 points higher than the market did.play 14
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:55WAS +4% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 1-J.Williams to WAS 21 for 14 yards (23-T.Amos).
1st · 14:57DET +3% win prob(14:57) (Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez right tackle to WAS 31 for 5 yards (34-A.Anzalone).
1st · 14:23WAS +3% win prob(14:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez up the middle to WAS 33 for 2 yards (32-B.Branch).
1st · 13:45DET +3% win prob(13:45) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 86-Z.Ertz [34-A.Anzalone].
1st · 11:21WAS +3% win prob(11:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs to WAS 39 for 8 yards (54-B.Wagner).
1st · 1:58WAS +2% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:29
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jahmyr Gibbs's 14-yard touchdown catch with 8:29 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:29Jahmyr Gibbs·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+77–0
1st5:46Matt Gay·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap T.Ott+37–3
1st1:58Amon-Ra St. Brown·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+714–3
2nd0:14Jake Bates·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+325–10
3rd12:11Jameson Williams·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+732–10
3rd7:09Deebo Samuel Sr.·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota · two-point no good+632–16
3rd2:33Jake Bates·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+335–16
4th12:58Jahmyr Gibbs·43-yd TD run43-yard rushing touchdownkick blocked by J.Newton+641–16
4th7:01Ben Sinnott·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota · two-point no good+641–22
4th4:38Jake Bates·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+344–22
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryCommanders
Lions8–0Commanders
549Total yards289
8.1Yards per play5.6
59%Success rate46%
50%Third-down rate20%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays3
31First downs16
0Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Lions ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.49Lions: +0.49 expected points added per play
+0.17Commanders: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.69Lions: +0.69 expected points added per play
+0.46Commanders: +0.46 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.28Lions: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.13Commanders: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 68 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Commanders’s 52 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Lions 7, Commanders 3.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.49 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
DET's play-action rate, 48.6%, is past their previous high of 41.4% in week 2 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 9.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Commanders14.3%
right on their number · +0.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteDET's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 48.6%, 22.7 points above their season mean of 25.9% and 2.1 times their own 10.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+6% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 8:29 · Lions · 2nd & 3 at WAS 14 · gained 14 · +1.98 EP · +6.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 87 yards from the DET 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.30
Success rate
53%
Yards
836
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.4943%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR17-0.0824%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+0.3469%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1764%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.4045%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Commanders 33
Lions6Commanders0
Lions7Commanders0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Commanders 14
Lions7Commanders3
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Lions 26
Lions13Commanders3
Lions14Commanders3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Commanders 9
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Lions 49
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt1 play
Lions20Commanders3
Lions22Commanders3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Commanders 13
Lions22Commanders9
Lions22Commanders10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Lions 1
Lions25Commanders10
Field goal16 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Commanders 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Lions31Commanders10
Lions32Commanders10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Commanders 14
Lions32Commanders16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Lions 4
Lions35Commanders16
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 18 to the Commanders 10
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 28
The period ended3 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 19
4th quarter37 plays
Lions41Commanders16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Commanders 43
Lions41Commanders22
Touchdown15 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Lions 4
Lions44Commanders22
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Commanders 30
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 33
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Lions 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
