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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Jaguars172 of 183 plays carry both curves
(:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +35.2 for TexansExpected points +3.86 for TexansThe model had Texans 4 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:37HOU +35% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:27JAX +24% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -9 yards (sack split by 55-D.Hunter and 39-H.To'oTo'o).
4th · 0:07JAX +23% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 30 for -5 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at JAX 32. 90-S.Rankins for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:04JAX +14% win prob39-C.Little kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 11-T.Smith to HOU 24 for 22 yards (51-V.Miller; 13-T.Jones). FUMBLES (51-V.Miller), RECOVERED by JAX-92-D.Striggow at HOU 19.
1st · 14:10JAX +14% win prob(14:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Jones at HOU 40. 22-J.Jones to HOU 40 for no gain (13-C.Kirk).
4th · 1:25HOU +13% win prob(1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete deep right to 13-C.Kirk (22-J.Jones). PENALTY on JAX-22-J.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 23 yards, enforced at JAX 25 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davis Mills's 14-yard rushing touchdown with 0:37 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st11:08Cam Little·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+33–0
Texans ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.24Jaguars: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.07Texans: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Jaguars: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.07Texans: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Jaguars: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.08Texans: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 56 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Texans’s 72 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 4, Texans 5.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 10Against their seasonFourth Down
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 16.7% in week 3 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 9.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.0 points.
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 12.5% in week 9 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.4 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Texans15.2%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 42.9 points above their season mean of 23.8% and 1.7 times their own 24.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
72Walker LittleT · Every snap100%62 snaps
70Cole Van LanenT · Every snap100%62 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
73Robert HainseyC · Every snap100%62 snaps
77Anton HarrisonT · Full-time94%58 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Full-time92%57 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Full-time87%54 snaps
17Tim PatrickWR · Heavy rotation71%44 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation56%35 snaps
80Quintin MorrisTE · Heavy rotation53%33 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Rotational48%30 snaps
3Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational44%27 snaps
5Dyami BrownWR · Rotational37%23 snaps
36LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · Rotational32%20 snaps
33Bhayshul TutenRB · Rotational27%17 snaps
55Chuma EdogaT · Rotational27%17 snaps
81Austin TrammellWR · Situational15%9 snaps
13Tim JonesWR · Situational8%5 snaps
60Jonah MonheimC · Situational8%5 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jourdan LewisCBAustin JohnsonDTEzra ClevelandGCody SchraderRBHunter LongTEBrian Thomas Jr.WR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Mills scrambles+30% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:37 · Texans · 3rd & goal at JAX 14 · gained 14 · +3.86 EP · +29.8% win probability
170 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 93 yards from the HOU 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
627
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1682%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.2567%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.5427%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.0844%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.0963%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1957%
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6+0.170%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Texans 43
Jaguars3Texans0
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Texans 14
Fumble lost1 play
Jaguars9Texans0
Jaguars10Texans0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Texans 2
Punt12 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Jaguars 41
The period ended4 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Jaguars 41
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays
Jaguars16Texans0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Texans 19
Jaguars17Texans0
Jaguars17Texans3
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Jaguars 4
Jaguars20Texans3
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Texans 34
Jaguars20Texans9
Jaguars20Texans10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Jaguars 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Texans 49
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Jaguars23Texans10
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Texans 15
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Jaguars 42
Jaguars29Texans10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Texans 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Jaguars 40
4th quarter56 plays
Jaguars29Texans16
Jaguars29Texans18
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Jaguars 12
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 18
Jaguars29Texans24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Jaguars 7
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Texans 49
How the play was built
A man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Jaguars29Texans30
Touchdown18 plays, from the Texans 7 to the Jaguars 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Jaguars29Texans36
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Jaguars 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
