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2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · NRG Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

29

Houston TexansWinner

36

JAX -1.5 upsetO 37.5 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 36–29. Biggest swing: Q4 0:37, HOU +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 0:37JAX 29 — HOU 30HOU ball · 3rd & 14JAX 64%

(:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:37HOU +35% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:27JAX +24% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 24 for -9 yards (sack split by 55-D.Hunter and 39-H.To'oTo'o).
  3. Q4 · 0:07JAX +23% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 30 for -5 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at JAX 32. 90-S.Rankins for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 11:04JAX +14% win prob39-C.Little kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 11-T.Smith to HOU 24 for 22 yards (51-V.Miller; 13-T.Jones). FUMBLES (51-V.Miller), RECOVERED by JAX-92-D.Striggow at HOU 19.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:08JAX Field goal

    (11:08) 39-C.Little 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 3 — HOU 0
  2. Q1 · 8:22JAX Touchdown

    (8:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-P.Washington for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 10 — HOU 0
  3. Q2 · 12:01JAX Touchdown

    (12:01) 6-T.Townsend punts 68 yards to JAX 27, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — HOU 0
  4. Q2 · 8:08HOU Field goal

    (8:08) 42-M.Wright 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: JAX 17 — HOU 3
  5. Q2 · 4:07JAX Field goal

    (4:07) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 20 — HOU 3
  6. Q2 · 1:23HOU Touchdown

    (1:23) 27-W.Marks left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 20 — HOU 10
  7. Q3 · 10:20JAX Field goal

    (10:20) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 23 — HOU 10
  8. Q3 · 1:37JAX Touchdown

    (1:37) (Shotgun) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 1-T.Etienne right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 29 — HOU 10
  9. Q4 · 12:21HOU Touchdown

    (12:21) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 81-J.Higgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: JAX 29 — HOU 18
  10. Q4 · 7:36HOU Touchdown

    (7:36) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 29 — HOU 24
  11. Q4 · 0:37HOU Touchdown

    (:37) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 29 — HOU 30
  12. Q4 · 0:07HOU Touchdown

    (:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 30 for -5 yards (51-W.Anderson). FUMBLES (51-W.Anderson) [51-W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-90-S.Rankins at JAX 32. 90-S.Rankins for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: JAX 29 — HOU 36

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsTexans
Offensive plays5672
Total yards213414 (edge)
Yards per play3.85.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.240.07 (edge)
Success rate38%50% (edge)
Dropback rate59%71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.240.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.230.08 (edge)
Third downs4/1110/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)59 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1428 (edge)
Sacks taken52 (edge)
Turnovers22

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

27/45, 292 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.8 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

13/23, 158 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.3 expected points added · -14.4% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Woody MarksRB

14 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

16 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

7/15 for 136 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · -2.1 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Dalton SchultzTE

7/11 for 53 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 314120:58Interception
2JAXHOU 407112:58Field goal +3
3HOU—100:07Fumble
4JAXHOU 196242:40Touchdown +7
5HOUHOU 3511296:12Punt
6JAXJAX 286103:34Punt
7HOUHOU 174-71:51Defensive touchdown
8HOUHOU 359613:35Field goal +3
9JAXJAX 268314:03Field goal +3
10HOUHOU 357502:43Touchdown +7
11JAXJAX 366111:08Interception
12HOUHOU 452530:11End of half
13JAXJAX 2610544:43Field goal +3
14HOUHOU 408182:52Turnover on downs
15JAXJAX 4212615:52Touchdown +6
16HOUHOU 3515674:17Touchdown +8
17JAXJAX 135-42:12Punt
18HOUHOU 497512:35Touchdown +6
19JAXJAX 45561:19Punt
20HOUHOU 715805:39Touchdown +6
21JAXJAX 33490:31Defensive touchdown

10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 80 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence13/23158115-7.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne16583.61-2.6
Trevor Lawrence5357.00-0.2
Bhayshul Tuten451.30-1.4
Parker Washington2-4-2.00-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jakobi Meyers3341013%4.3
Austin Trammell2333013%0.2
Parker Washington3733130%-1.6
Johnny Mundt122109%2.4
Travis Etienne2419017%0.1
LeQuint Allen Jr.11604%-0.9
Bhayshul Tuten12509%1.5
Dyami Brown01004%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Andrew Wingard360.001
Foye Oluokun180.001
Devin Lloyd260.000
Dennis Gardeck520.000
Greg Newsome II430.001
Antonio Johnson331.001
Josh Hines-Allen130.000
Jarrian Jones300.012
Montaric Brown120.002
Arik Armstead111.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Davis Mills27/452922120.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Woody Marks14634.510.9
Nick Chubb5479.402.9
Davis Mills3206.710.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins715136034%-2.1
Dalton Schultz71153125%4.3
Jayden Higgins5742116%2.3
Jaylin Noel443509%4.4
Woody Marks231807%1.6
Nick Chubb11502%0.0
Christian Kirk13307%-7.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Azeez Al-Shaair350.001
Myles Bryant520.000
Danielle Hunter523.500
E.J. Speed330.000
Calen Bullock420.001
Tommy Togiai320.000
Tremon Smith310.001
Henry To'oTo'o220.501
Will Anderson Jr.201.001
Tim Settle110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -1.5
Closing total
37.5
JAX moneyline
-115
HOU moneyline
-105

Jaguars closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 65 — over by 27.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
JAX 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches
Liam Coen vs DeMeco Ryans

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.