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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 10
It turned at Q4 12:36, 1st and 9, on Luke Farrell — 5.3 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Rams 42–26. Biggest swing: Q4 12:36, 49ers +5.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:36 · 1st and 9
Luke Farrell
49ers
(12:36) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 89-L.Farrell for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.41 expected points per snap, against 49ers at +0.13 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against 49ers at 3 of 8 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(12:36) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 89-L.Farrell for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kyren Williams's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 10:18 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Luke Farrell9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jones · kick blocked by J.Verse+628–2010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by category49ers
Rams ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to 49ers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 64 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against 49ers’s 61 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Rams 7, 49ers 5.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's play-action rate, 48.6%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
SF's blitz rate sent, 45.9%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 8 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · +2.3σ from their own normal
SF's sack or hit rate, 18.9%, is past their previous high of 12.5% in week 1 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
LA's sack or hit rate, 2.5%, is past their previous low of 8.0% in week 9 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
SF's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 1 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 10.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.6 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
SF's early-down pass rate turned over: 39.2% in week 9 against 65.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Rams7.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 3.2 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 64 snaps
49ers1.7 ptsright on their number · +2.3 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 85%
Tendencies room →Rams53.7%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 55.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 54 early downs
49ers65.3%inside their normal wobble · +10.3 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 61%
Tendencies room →Rams48.6%leaned — faked the run · +13.2 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
49ers15.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −7.4 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 101%
Fourth Down room →Rams—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 49.3%.
49ers75.0%leaned — went for it · +38.7 vs their 36.3%, and they swing ±25.6 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 54%
Tendencies room →Rams17.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
49ers45.9%off script — sent pressure · +22.5 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+2.28× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 40%
Tendencies room →Rams2.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −15.4 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.74× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
49ers18.9%leaned — got home · +9.4 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.82× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
SF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 45.9%, 22.5 points above their season mean of 23.5% and 2.3 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
33/39, 319 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
18.3 expected points added · +15.0% completion over expected
Passing · LA
24/36, 280 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
22.6 expected points added · +10.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Kittle banked 8.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 23.4 | +8.9 | 90% | 93% | 23% | 20% | 9/9, 84 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 23.1 | +4.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 33/39, 319 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Committee Back | 17.6 | −4.6 | 78% | 85% | 26% | 10% | 12 car, 30 yd · 8/10, 66 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Featured Receiver | 17.1 | −0.1 | 92% | 90% | 23% | 32% | 6/9, 71 yd, 1 TD |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 11.5 | +3.1 | 22% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 8 car, 41 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +5.9 | 27% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 2/2, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | −0.6 | 46% | 55% | 10% | 23% | 3/4, 34 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.0 | 68% | 63% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 2.8 | −3.1 | 49% | 48% | 5% | 0% | 2/2, 8 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.0 | 17% | 23% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 18 yd |
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:41 · Rams · 2nd & 10 at SF 22 · gained 22 · +2.85 EP · +7.2% win probability
160 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 81 yards from the LA 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams6
49ers0Rams749ers0Rams1349ers0Rams1449ers0Rams2049ers0Rams2149ers0Rams2149ers6Rams2149ers7Rams2149ers13Rams2149ers14Rams2749ers14Rams2849ers14Rams2849ers20Rams3449ers20Rams3549ers20Rams4149ers20Rams4249ers20Rams4249ers26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/36 | 280 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +22.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 14 | 73 | 5.2 | 2 | +3.4 |
| Blake Corum | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Matthew Stafford |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 8 | 77 | 1 | 24% | +5.9 |
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 6 | 64 | 1 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Speights | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Landman | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Lake |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 33/39 | 319 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +18.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_10_LA_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 68 — over by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| -3 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| −3.2 |
| +9.5 |
| Colby Parkinson | 4 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 15% | +5.2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 9% | +3.3 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 1 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 12% | −0.0 |
| Xavier Smith | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −0.1 |
| Davis Allen | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 6% | +1.7 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.7 |
| 8 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kam Curl | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cobie Durant | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Byron Young | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Kinchens | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poona Ford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylen McCollough | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 1 | +1.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 12 | 30 | 2.5 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 9 | 9 | 84 | 1 | 23% | +9.3 |
| Jauan Jennings | 6 | 9 | 71 | 1 | 23% | −3.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 10 | 66 | 0 | 26% | +1.1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 5% | +1.9 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tatum Bethune | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Mustapha | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Winters | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Upton Stout | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalia Davis | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| CJ West | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Robinson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Okuayinonu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
