For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 6, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 10
It turned at Q4 4:30, 4th and 6, on Daniel Carlson — 17.6 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:30, Broncos +17.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:30 · 4th and 6
Daniel Carlson
Broncos
(4:30) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
17.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Broncos won this one — -0.25 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.39 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(4:30) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Wil Lutz's 32-yard field goal with 0:07 left in the 3rd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Wil Lutz32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+37–103 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryBroncos
Broncos ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 58 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Broncos’s 55 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 1, Broncos 3.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders-4.0 ptsright on their number · −2.4 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 58 snaps
Broncos-0.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.2 vs their 1.4 pts, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 92%
Tendencies room →Raiders52.4%right on their number · −5.5 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 42 early downs
Broncos47.5%leaned — ran early · −8.5 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 47%
Tendencies room →Raiders20.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Broncos20.0%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 143%
Fourth Down room →Raiders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 54.5%.
Broncos—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 56%
Tendencies room →Raiders23.3%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos28.6%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 30.1%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 45%
Tendencies room →Raiders13.3%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos22.9%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
DEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 47.5%, 8.5 points below their season mean of 56.0% and 1.2 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
16/28, 150 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-6.5 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected
Passing · LV
16/26, 143 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-16.3 expected points added · -6.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Pat Bryant banked 2.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton JeantyRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.3 | −0.6 | 87% | 86% | 20% | 0% | 19 car, 60 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 3 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.0 | −2.1 | 74% | 90% | 33% | 65% | 5/9, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| J.K. DobbinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.4 | −0.9 | 52% | 23% | 4% | 1% | 18 car, 77 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | +1.9 | 57% | 80% | 24% | 45% | 5/6, 44 yd |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 5.8 | −7.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/28, 150 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 5 car, -2 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | +0.5 | 100% | 100% | 12% | 48% | 1 car, 7 yd · 2/3, 28 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −0.5 | 87% | 97% | 15% | 13% | 3/4, 24 yd |
| Pat BryantWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +2.2 | 49% | 73% | 7% | 9% | 1/2, 43 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −1.8 | 62% | 46% | 16% | 16% | 3/4, 22 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 4.4 | −3.6 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 16/26, 143 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 7 yd |
| RJ HarveyRB · Receiving Back | 3.8 | −3.6 | 28% | 37% | 11% | 0% | 4 car, 9 yd · 2/3, 9 yd |
| Brock BowersTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −1.1 | 83% | 86% | 12% | 28% | 1 car, -4 yd · 1/3, 31 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Featured Receiver | 3.2 | −5.4 | 44% | 77% | 19% | 13% | 2/5, 12 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB | 2.5 | +0.6 | 13% | 14% | 4% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 2.3 | +0.9 | 16% | 3% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.6 | 62% | 60% | 8% | 0% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | 69% | 40% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Tyler BadieRB | 0.0 | −1.5 | 21% | 40% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 33% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Michael BandyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kenny PickettQB | 0.0 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Alex BachmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jack BechWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 23% | 23% | 4% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 36-K.Kelly at DEN 45. 36-K.Kelly to DEN 45 for no gain (11-T.Franklin).
Q4 7:16 · Broncos · 3rd & 5 at DEN 25 · gained nothing · -3.02 EP · −17.4% win probability
153 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
3 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 53 yards from the DEN 47 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Raiders6
Broncos0Raiders7Broncos0Raiders7Broncos6Raiders7Broncos7How the play was built
A trick play, a man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Raiders7Broncos10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/26 | 143 | 0 | 1 | 6 | −16.3 |
| Kenny Pickett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 1 | −2.6 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 24% | +1.5 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Chinn | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Snowden |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 16/28 | 150 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −6.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_10_LV_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 17 — under by 25.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| +1.6 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 12% | +0.7 |
| Michael Mayer | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 16% | −1.0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +2.1 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8% | −0.5 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20% | −7.0 |
| Jack Bech | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Laulu | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamal Adams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 18 | 77 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.7 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Bo Nix | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 | −4.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Bryant | 1 | 2 | 43 | 0 | 7% | +3.1 |
| Troy Franklin | 5 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 33% | −2.2 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 15% | +0.6 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 19% | −3.1 |
| RJ Harvey | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −1.1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −1.3 |
| Tyler Badie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talanoa Hufanga | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Singleton | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nik Bonitto | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Allen | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malcolm Roach | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dondrea Tillman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
