2025 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 6, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High

Las Vegas Raiders

Denver BroncosWinner

DEN -9.5 no coverU 42.5 ✓Broncos closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Denver Broncos 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:30, LV +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:30LV 7 — DEN 10LV ball · 4th & 6DEN 71%

(4:30) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:30LV +18% win prob(4:30) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q3 · 5:34LV +15% win prob(5:34) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 2-A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by 92-D.Tillman at DEN 44. 92-D.Tillman to LV 33 for 23 yards (87-M.Mayer).
Q4 · 7:16LV +15% win prob(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 36-K.Kelly at DEN 45. 36-K.Kelly to DEN 45 for no gain (11-T.Franklin).
Q2 · 4:10DEN +14% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 13-P.Bryant pushed ob at LV 5 for 43 yards (32-L.Johnson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:06LV Touchdown
(3:06) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — DEN 0
Q2 · 2:45DEN Touchdown
(2:45) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 11-T.Franklin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LV 7 — DEN 7
Q3 · 0:07DEN Field goal
(:07) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. LV-27-T.McCollum was injured during the play.
Score after this play: LV 7 — DEN 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Broncos
Offensive plays	58	55
Total yards	188	222 (edge)
Yards per play	3.2	4.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.39	-0.25 (edge)
Success rate	33%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.49	-0.35 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	4/15	5/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	10	10
Sacks taken	6	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.39.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

16/28, 150 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-6.5 expected points added · -7.2% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Geno SmithQB

16/26, 143 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-16.3 expected points added · -6.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

J.K. DobbinsRB

18 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Ashton JeantyRB

19 att, 60 yds, 1 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Tyler LockettWR

5/6 for 44 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Troy FranklinWR

5/9 for 40 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · -2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 35	10	28	5:46	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 2	4	9	2:07	Punt
3	LV	DEN 41	9	41	4:05	Touchdown +7
4	DEN	DEN 20	5	-3	1:31	Punt
5	LV	LV 22	6	12	2:00	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 33	4	17	2:32	Punt
7	LV	LV 29	7	35	3:01	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 1	4	9	1:18	Punt
9	LV	DEN 43	4	-4	1:42	Turnover on downs
10	DEN	DEN 47	6	63	3:17	Touchdown +7
11	LV	LV 35	5	-2	0:51	Punt
12	DEN	DEN 27	5	21	1:23	Interception
13	LV	LV 36	3	2	0:27	End of half
14	DEN	DEN 9	5	3	1:10	Punt
15	LV	LV 29	4	8	1:30	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 16	11	48	6:46	Missed field goal
17	LV	LV 49	1	0	0:12	Interception
18	DEN	LV 33	4	4	2:25	Punt
19	LV	LV 20	4	7	1:28	Punt
20	DEN	LV 12	4	-2	1:24	Field goal +3
21	LV	LV 31	5	-1	1:15	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 33	4	4	1:02	Punt
23	LV	LV 10	7	47	4:13	Punt
24	DEN	DEN 20	3	5	1:25	Interception
25	LV	DEN 45	6	15	2:44	Missed field goal
26	DEN	DEN 38	10	44	4:26	End of game

3 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 63 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	16/26	143	0	1	6	-16.3
Kenny Pickett	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ashton Jeanty	19	60	3.2	1	-2.6
Geno Smith	3	7	2.3	0	-1.2
Tre Tucker	1	7	7.0	0	0.5
Raheem Mostert	1	4	4.0	0	-0.6
Brock Bowers	1	-4	-4.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	5	6	44	24%	1.5
Brock Bowers	1	3	31	12%	1.6
Tre Tucker	2	3	28	12%	0.7
Michael Mayer	3	4	22	16%	-1.0
Raheem Mostert	1	1	11	4%	2.1
Dont'e Thornton Jr.	1	2	4	8%	-0.5
Ashton Jeanty	3	5	3	20%	-7.0
Jack Bech	0	1	0	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremy Chinn	2	7	0.0	0
Devin White	4	3	0.0	0
Charles Snowden	5	1	1.0	1
Maxx Crosby	2	3	0.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	3	0	0.0	0
Eric Stokes	2	1	0.0	0
Jonah Laulu	0	3	0.0	1
Isaiah Pola-Mao	1	2	0.0	0
Jamal Adams	2	1	0.0	0
Michael Mayer	2	0	0.0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	16/28	150	1	2	1	-6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	18	77	4.3	-0.7
RJ Harvey	4	9	2.3	-1.3
Bo Nix	5	-2	-0.4	-4.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Pat Bryant	1	2	43	0	7%	3.1
Troy Franklin	5	9	40	1	33%	-2.2
Courtland Sutton	3	4	24	0	15%	0.6
Adam Prentice	1	1	13	0	4%	0.9
Evan Engram	2	5	12	0	19%	-3.1
RJ Harvey	2	3	9	0	11%	-1.1
J.K. Dobbins	1	1	7	0	4%	0.5
Adam Trautman	1	1	2	0	4%	-1.3
Tyler Badie	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alex Singleton	2	7	0.0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	5	4	1.0	0
Riley Moss	4	1	0.0	0
Dre Greenlaw	2	3	0.0	1
Nik Bonitto	4	1	1.5	0
Brandon Jones	4	1	0.0	0
Zach Allen	1	3	1.0	1
Malcolm Roach	2	1	1.0	0
Jahdae Barron	2	1	0.0	0
John Franklin-Myers	1	2	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -9.5
Closing total: 42.5
LV moneyline: +380
DEN moneyline: -500

Broncos closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 17 — under by 25.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 60°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: LV 4 days · DEN 4 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.