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2025 Week 10 · Thu, Nov 6, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
RaidersLas Vegas7
BY 3final margin
BroncosDenver10
Las Vegas Raiders 7 at Denver Broncos 10. Final.
Broncos -9.5 no coverU 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 10
Denver Broncos 10, Raiders 7 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 4:30, 4th and 6, on Daniel Carlson — 17.6 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:30 · 4th and 6
Daniel Carlson
Broncos
(4:30) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Broncos closed -9.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Denver Broncos 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:30, Broncos +17.6% win probability on one snap.
17.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dondrea TillmanBroncosQ3 5:34(5:34) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 2-A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by 92-D.Tillman at DEN 44. 92-D.Tillman to LV 33 for 23 yards (87-M.Mayer).
14.8pts
Kyu Blu KellyRaidersQ4 7:16(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 36-K.Kelly at DEN 45. 36-K.Kelly to DEN 45 for no gain (11-T.Franklin).
14.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Broncos won this one — -0.25 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.39 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Raiders155 of 164 plays carry both curves
(4:30) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Swing +17.6 for BroncosExpected points +3.44 for BroncosThe model had Raiders 5 points higher than the market did.play 150
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:30LV +18% win prob(4:30) 8-D.Carlson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
3rd · 5:34LV +15% win prob(5:34) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle intended for 2-A.Jeanty INTERCEPTED by 92-D.Tillman at DEN 44. 92-D.Tillman to LV 33 for 23 yards (87-M.Mayer).
4th · 7:16LV +15% win prob(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 36-K.Kelly at DEN 45. 36-K.Kelly to DEN 45 for no gain (11-T.Franklin).
2nd · 4:10DEN +14% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 13-P.Bryant pushed ob at LV 5 for 43 yards (32-L.Johnson).
2nd · 6:03LV +12% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at DEN 47 for -9 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
1st · 3:06DEN +9% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 2-A.Jeanty left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 32-yard field goal with 0:07 left in the 3rd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd2:45Troy Franklin·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+77–7
3rd0:07Wil Lutz·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+37–10
3 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryBroncos
Raiders2–5Broncos
188Total yards222
3.2Yards per play4.0
33%Success rate40%
27%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays2
10First downs10
6Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Broncos ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.39Raiders: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.25Broncos: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.49Raiders: −0.49 expected points added per play
−0.35Broncos: −0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Raiders: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.13Broncos: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 58 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Broncos’s 55 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 1, Broncos 3.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos22.9%
right on their number · +0.4 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteDEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 47.5%, 8.5 points below their season mean of 56.0% and 1.2 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%60 snaps
61Jordan MeredithC · Every snap100%60 snaps
70Stone ForsytheT · Every snap100%60 snaps
1Tre TuckerWR · Every snap100%60 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Full-time97%58 snaps
2Ashton JeantyRB · Full-time87%52 snaps
89Brock BowersTE · Full-time83%50 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Heavy rotation65%39 snaps
87Michael MayerTE · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
10Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Nix pass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:16) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 36-K.Kelly at DEN 45. 36-K.Kelly to DEN 45 for no gain (11-T.Franklin).
Q4 7:16 · Broncos · 3rd & 5 at DEN 25 · gained nothing · -3.02 EP · −17.4% win probability
153 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 53 yards from the DEN 47 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.34
Success rate
34%
Yards
408
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.2780%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.2176%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27-0.5841%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1429%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.2013%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt11 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Broncos 37
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 2 to the Broncos 11
Raiders6Broncos0
Raiders7Broncos0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Broncos 4
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 26
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Raiders 38
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Broncos 40
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Broncos 31
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 1 to the Broncos 10
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Broncos 43 to the Broncos 38
Raiders7Broncos6
Raiders7Broncos7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Raiders 5
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 39
Intercepted7 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Broncos 38
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Raiders 45
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Raiders 37
How the play was built
A trick play, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
No good12 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Raiders 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 23
Raiders7Broncos10
Field goal4 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter39 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 32
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Broncos 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Broncos 40
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 25
No good6 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Broncos 30
The period ended14 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Raiders 13
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
