2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -2.5 upsetO 48.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 28–23. Biggest swing: Q4 1:55, NE +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:55NE 21 — TB 16TB ball · 4th & 3NE 67%

(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:55NE +26% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].
Q4 · 5:25NE +19% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB -5. Touchback.
Q2 · 0:02TB +18% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:11TB +17% win prob(:11) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-C.Braswell].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:30TB Touchdown
(11:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — TB 7
Q1 · 0:11NE Touchdown
(:11) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-C.Braswell]. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — TB 7
Q2 · 7:19TB Field goal
(7:19) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: NE 7 — TB 10
Q2 · 0:02NE Touchdown
(:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 14 — TB 10
Q3 · 14:22NE Touchdown
(14:22) 32-T.Henderson right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 21 — TB 10
Q3 · 4:19TB Touchdown
(4:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: NE 21 — TB 16
Q4 · 1:43NE Touchdown
(1:43) 32-T.Henderson left end for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 28 — TB 16
Q4 · 0:38TB Touchdown
(:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 28 — TB 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	58	67
Total yards	436 (edge)	371
Yards per play	7.5 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	36%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	0.09
Third downs	5/14	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

28/43, 273 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

1.0 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

16/31, 270 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.3 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

TreVeyon HendersonRB

14 att, 147 yds, 2 TD

8.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Sean TuckerRB

9 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Emeka EgbukaWR

6/13 for 115 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Mack HollinsWR

6/10 for 106 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 35	8	65	3:37	Touchdown +7
2	NE	NE 34	9	11	3:01	Punt
3	TB	TB 20	7	27	2:20	Punt
4	NE	NE 6	9	33	4:15	Punt
5	TB	TB 23	4	-3	1:36	Punt
6	NE	NE 28	2	72	0:11	Touchdown +7
7	TB	TB 30	5	8	1:45	Punt
8	NE	NE 7	5	14	1:34	Punt
9	TB	TB 25	8	57	4:25	Field goal +3
10	NE	NE 22	16	83	7:16	Touchdown +7
11	NE	NE 35	4	65	0:48	Touchdown +7
12	TB	TB 27	7	12	2:34	Punt
13	NE	NE 30	4	3	1:36	Punt
14	TB	TB 8	12	70	5:50	Touchdown +6
15	NE	NE 35	8	23	2:58	Turnover on downs
16	TB	TB 42	7	18	3:41	Punt
17	NE	NE 20	4	9	2:21	Punt
18	TB	TB 24	4	2	2:09	Punt
19	NE	NE 42	7	53	2:46	Interception
20	TB	TB 20	9	50	3:30	Turnover on downs
21	NE	NE 30	3	70	0:16	Touchdown +7
22	TB	TB 35	9	65	0:58	Touchdown +7
23	NE	50	2	0	0:33	End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 83 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	16/31	270	2	1	1	6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
TreVeyon Henderson	14	147	10.5	2	8.8
Drake Maye	7	13	1.9	0	-5.0
Terrell Jennings	4	5	1.3	0	0.4
D'Ernest Johnson	1	1	1.0	0	-0.2
DeMario Douglas	1	0	0.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mack Hollins	6	10	106	0	34%	1.3
Kyle Williams	1	2	72	1	7%	4.9
Stefon Diggs	5	8	46	1	28%	3.0
DeMario Douglas	2	2	34	0	7%	3.3
Hunter Henry	1	4	9	0	14%	-2.2
TreVeyon Henderson	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.4
Jack Westover	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Austin Hooper	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jack Gibbens	5	5	0.0	1
Robert Spillane	1	8	0.0	1
Christian Gonzalez	5	4	0.0	1
Craig Woodson	3	5	0.0	2
Jaylinn Hawkins	4	2	0.0	0
Carlton Davis III	2	3	0.0	0
Marcus Jones	2	2	0.0	0
Anfernee Jennings	2	1	0.0	0
Elijah Ponder	1	1	1.0	0
Christian Barmore	1	0	0.0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	28/43	273	3	0	2	1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Sean Tucker	9	53	5.9	1.7
Rachaad White	10	38	3.8	0.0
Sterling Shepard	1	11	11.0	0.8
Kameron Johnson	1	11	11.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emeka Egbuka	6	13	115	1	30%	2.5
Cade Otton	9	12	82	0	28%	2.4
Tez Johnson	4	5	42	2	12%	6.5
Sterling Shepard	3	4	20	0	9%	-0.8
Rachaad White	5	5	16	0	12%	-2.9
Kameron Johnson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4
Payne Durham	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6
Sean Tucker	1	2	-2	0	5%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Tykee Smith	4	4	1	1
Lavonte David	5	3	0	0
Anthony Nelson	3	3	0	0
Zyon McCollum	4	1	0	1
Jamel Dean	4	0	0	0
Yaya Diaby	1	2	0	0
Deion Jones	2	0	0	0
Greg Gaines	1	1	0	0
Vita Vea	1	1	0	0
Elijah Simmons	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -2.5
Closing total: 48.5
NE moneyline: +124
TB moneyline: -148

Buccaneers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 51 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: NE 7 days · TB 14 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Todd Bowles