For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Patriots162 of 173 plays carry both curves
(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].
Swing −25.7 for BuccaneersExpected points −3.00 for BuccaneersThe model had Patriots 6 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:55NE +26% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].
4th · 5:25NE +19% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Smith at TB -5. Touchback.
2nd · 0:02TB +18% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:11TB +17% win prob(:11) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-C.Braswell].
4th · 7:27TB +15% win prob(7:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 13-M.Hollins to TB 8 for 54 yards (27-Z.McCollum) [0-Y.Diaby].
3rd · 14:22TB +14% win prob(14:22) 32-T.Henderson right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stefon Diggs's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:02 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Patriots: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.04Buccaneers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Patriots: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.02Buccaneers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.27Patriots: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.09Buccaneers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 58 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 67 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Buccaneers 4.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Buccaneers16.7%
right on their number · +3.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was TB's play-action rate, 24.4% against a season mean of 17.1% — and TB swings 8.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
58Jared WilsonG · Every snap100%61 snaps
71Mike OnwenuG · Every snap100%61 snaps
10Drake MayeQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%61 snaps
65Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%61 snaps
66Will CampbellT · Every snap100%61 snaps
85Hunter HenryTE · Full-time87%53 snaps
32TreVeyon HendersonRB · Full-time84%51 snaps
13Mack HollinsWR · Heavy rotation79%48 snaps
8Stefon DiggsWR · Heavy rotation59%36 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation56%34 snaps
18Kyle WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation56%34 snaps
37Jack WestoverFB · Rotational25%15 snaps
3DeMario DouglasWR · Situational21%13 snaps
95Khyiris TongaNT · Situational13%8 snaps
34D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational10%6 snaps
26Terrell JenningsRB · Situational8%5 snaps
86Efton Chism IIIWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Eric GregoryDTJohn Saunders Jr.FSCaedan WallaceGChristian EllissILBTommy DeVitoQBRhamondre StevensonRBKayshon BoutteWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass−21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].
Q4 1:55 · Buccaneers · 4th & 3 at NE 27 · lost 3 · -3.00 EP · −21.4% win probability
160 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 92 yards from the TB 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
44%
Yards
806
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0380%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0963%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0143%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.3370%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR5+1.290%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+1.0860%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.0260%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Patriots0Buccaneers6
Patriots0Buccaneers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Patriots 21
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Patriots 45
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 47
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Patriots 39
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 30
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Patriots6Buccaneers7
Patriots7Buccaneers7
Touchdown2 plays
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 30 to the Buccaneers 38
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 7 to the Patriots 31
Patriots7Buccaneers10
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Patriots 18
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Patriots13Buccaneers10
Patriots14Buccaneers10
Touchdown23 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Buccaneers 1
3rd quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Patriots20Buccaneers10
Patriots21Buccaneers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 45
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Buccaneers 39
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 33
Patriots21Buccaneers16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Patriots 10
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Buccaneers 42
The period ended3 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Buccaneers 46
4th quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 49 to the Patriots 40
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 29
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 30
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.6 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Buccaneers 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Patriots 27
Patriots27Buccaneers16
Patriots28Buccaneers16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 31
Patriots28Buccaneers22
Patriots28Buccaneers23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Patriots 11
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
