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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 10
It turned at Q4 1:55, 4th and 3, on Rachaad White — 25.7 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 28–23. Biggest swing: Q4 1:55, Patriots +25.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:55 · 4th and 3
Rachaad White
Patriots
(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].
25.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Patriots at 6 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Patriots at 1 giveaway.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Stefon Diggs's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:02 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Stefon Diggs1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Drake MayeLead never changed again+714–10
Tez Johnson10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker Mayfield · two-point no good+621–168 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 58 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 67 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Buccaneers 4.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots5.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 58 snaps
Buccaneers1.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 87%
Tendencies room →Patriots58.5%right on their number · +4.3 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 41 early downs
Buccaneers65.4%inside their normal wobble · +11.2 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 48%
Tendencies room →Patriots22.2%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Buccaneers24.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.4 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Patriots60.0%inside their normal wobble · +17.0 vs their 43.0%, and they swing ±33.5 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 45.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 62%
Tendencies room →Patriots33.3%right on their number · +5.1 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Buccaneers30.6%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 31%
Tendencies room →Patriots11.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Buccaneers16.7%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was TB's play-action rate, 24.4% against a season mean of 17.1% — and TB swings 8.3 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
28/43, 273 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
1.0 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected
Passing · NE
16/31, 270 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
6.3 expected points added · -5.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
TreVeyon Henderson banked 13.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon HendersonRB · Committee Back | 28.0 | +13.8 | 84% | 86% | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 147 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.5 | −2.0 | 88% | 96% | 30% | 51% | 6/13, 115 yd, 1 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 22.9 | +5.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/43, 273 yd, 3 TD |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 20.2 | +10.5 | 83% | 87% | 12% | 17% | 4/5, 42 yd, 2 TD |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 18.1 | −7.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/31, 270 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 13 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Alpha Receiver | 17.2 | −1.5 | 97% | 96% | 28% | 17% | 9/12, 82 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.6 | −2.5 | 79% | 83% | 34% | 44% | 6/10, 106 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.6 | −0.1 | 59% | 78% | 28% | 23% | 5/8, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.2 | +10.3 | 56% | 58% | 7% | 17% | 1/2, 72 yd, 1 TD |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 10.4 | −1.1 | 72% | 78% | 12% | 0% | 10 car, 38 yd · 5/5, 16 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 6.1 | −0.4 | 32% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 9 car, 53 yd · 1/2, -2 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | −0.8 | 65% | 80% | 9% | 17% | 1 car, 11 yd · 3/4, 20 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +1.7 | 21% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 1 car, 0 yd · 2/2, 34 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −4.7 | 87% | 86% | 14% | 11% | 1/4, 9 yd |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −1.5 | 13% | 11% | 2% | 4% | 1 car, 11 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Terrell JenningsRB | 0.5 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 0.1 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jack WestoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 25% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Efton Chism IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 56% | 44% | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 28% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ryan MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 12% | 2% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].
Q4 1:55 · Buccaneers · 4th & 3 at NE 27 · lost 3 · -3.00 EP · −21.4% win probability
160 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 92 yards from the TB 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Buccaneers6Patriots0Buccaneers7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots6Buccaneers7Patriots7Buccaneers7Patriots7Buccaneers10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Patriots13Buccaneers10Patriots14Buccaneers10How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Patriots20Buccaneers10Patriots21Buccaneers10Patriots21Buccaneers16How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Patriots27Buccaneers16Patriots28Buccaneers16Patriots28Buccaneers22Patriots28Buccaneers23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 16/31 | 270 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +6.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 14 | 147 | 10.5 | 2 | +8.8 |
| Drake Maye | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 | −5.0 |
| Terrell Jennings |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 6 | 10 | 106 | 0 | 34% | +1.3 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 2 | 72 | 1 | 7% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gibbens | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Robert Spillane |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 28/43 | 273 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_10_NE_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 51 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 5 |
| 1.3 |
| 0 |
| +0.4 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| +4.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 8 | 46 | 1 | 28% | +3.0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 7% | +3.3 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 14% | −2.2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Jack Westover | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 1 |
| 8 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Craig Woodson | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Ponder | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Rachaad White | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Kameron Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 6 | 13 | 115 | 1 | 30% | +2.5 |
| Cade Otton | 9 | 12 | 82 | 0 | 28% | +2.4 |
| Tez Johnson | 4 | 5 | 42 | 2 | 12% | +6.5 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 12% | −2.9 |
| Kameron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.4 |
| Payne Durham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.6 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 5% | −1.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tykee Smith | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Lavonte David | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamel Dean | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yaya Diaby | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Roberts | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elijah Simmons | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deion Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
