2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Carolina Panthers

CAR -5.5 upsetU 38.5 ✓15 mph windPanthers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 17–7. Biggest swing: Q2 9:31, CAR +20% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:31NO 9 — CAR 7NO ball · 3rd & 8CAR 74%

(9:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:31CAR +20% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:34NO +20% win prob(4:34) 9-B.Young FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 19, touched at NO 19, RECOVERED by NO-20-P.Werner at NO 17.
Q4 · 13:00NO +18% win prob(13:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 4-T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 1-A.Taylor at NO 46. 1-A.Taylor pushed ob at CAR 43 for 11 yards (4-T.McMillan).
Q4 · 10:29CAR +15% win prob(10:29) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 83-J.Johnson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:04CAR Touchdown
(8:04) 5-R.Dowdle right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 0 — CAR 7
Q1 · 2:55NO Field goal
(2:55) 19-B.Grupe 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
Score after this play: NO 3 — CAR 7
Q2 · 9:31NO Touchdown
(9:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 10 — CAR 7
Q4 · 10:29NO Touchdown
(10:29) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 83-J.Johnson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 17 — CAR 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Panthers
Offensive plays	64	50
Total yards	394 (edge)	175
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	3.5
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	-0.42
Success rate	41% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	48%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35 (edge)	-0.43
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.41
Third downs	8/16 (edge)	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.42.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Tyler ShoughQB

19/27, 282 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.8 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

17/25, 124 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.5 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

22 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Rico DowdleRB

18 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

-5.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

5/8 for 104 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Juwan JohnsonTE

4/4 for 92 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 33	14	47	7:01	Touchdown +7
2	NO	NO 20	11	78	5:07	Field goal +3
3	CAR	CAR 28	6	19	2:05	Punt
4	NO	NO 2	4	7	0:59	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 47	4	-12	1:30	Punt
6	NO	NO 25	8	75	3:57	Touchdown +7
7	CAR	CAR 38	5	7	1:38	Punt
8	NO	NO 8	6	32	1:34	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 13	4	3	2:15	Punt
10	NO	NO 16	10	44	3:33	Punt
11	CAR	CAR 19	3	19	0:21	End of half
12	NO	NO 37	5	18	2:10	Punt
13	CAR	CAR 10	11	60	6:21	Missed field goal
14	CAR	NO 30	4	15	1:59	Fumble
15	NO	NO 17	13	48	5:52	Turnover on downs
16	CAR	CAR 40	1	0	0:44	Interception
17	NO	CAR 43	6	43	2:34	Touchdown +7
18	CAR	CAR 32	7	12	2:45	Turnover on downs
19	NO	NO 41	14	54	7:35	End of game

4 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 78 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Shough	19/27	282	2	0	2	11.8
Taysom Hill	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	22	83	3.8	-2.3
Devin Neal	4	22	5.5	0.3
Taysom Hill	7	20	2.9	1.5
Tyler Shough	4	-3	-0.8	-5.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	5	8	104	1	31%	6.8
Juwan Johnson	4	4	92	1	15%	9.9
Alvin Kamara	3	3	32	0	12%	1.7
Foster Moreau	2	3	16	0	12%	1.3
Devaughn Vele	1	3	15	0	12%	-1.0
Zaire Mitchell-Paden	1	1	14	0	4%	1.6
Devin Neal	3	3	9	0	12%	-0.0
Taysom Hill	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Demario Davis	1	6	0	1
Kool-Aid McKinstry	4	2	0	0
Pete Werner	3	3	0	0
Alontae Taylor	3	2	1	1
Justin Reid	1	4	0	0
Danny Stutsman	1	3	0	0
Bryan Bresee	2	2	0	0
Isaiah Stalbird	2	2	0	0
Quincy Riley	3	0	0	1
Chase Young	1	2	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	17/25	124	0	1	2	-11.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rico Dowdle	18	53	2.9	1	-5.0
Chuba Hubbard	3	14	4.7	0	-0.2
Bryce Young	2	6	3.0	0	-4.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tetairoa McMillan	5	8	60	35%	-2.1
Ja'Tavion Sanders	5	5	32	22%	-0.7
Jalen Coker	3	4	21	17%	0.3
Rico Dowdle	3	3	10	13%	0.3
Chuba Hubbard	1	1	1	4%	-2.8
Mitchell Evans	0	1	0	4%	-0.7
Xavier Legette	0	1	0	4%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Derrick Brown	2	6	0.0
Nick Scott	4	2	0.0
Chau Smith-Wade	6	0	0.0
Tershawn Wharton	1	5	0.0
D.J. Wonnum	2	4	0.0
Tre'von Moehrig	5	1	0.0
A'Shawn Robinson	2	2	0.0
Christian Rozeboom	2	2	0.0
Trevin Wallace	3	1	1.0
Nic Scourton	2	2	1.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -5.5
Closing total: 38.5
NO moneyline: +200
CAR moneyline: -245

Panthers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 24 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: NO 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Kellen Moore vs Dave Canales

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.