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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 10 · Sun, Nov 9, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 10
It turned at Q2 9:31, 3rd and 8, on Chris Olave — 20.4 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 17–7. Biggest swing: Q2 9:31, Saints +20.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:31 · 3rd and 8
Chris Olave
Saints
(9:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.42 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.43 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Panthers at 2 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(9:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chris Olave's 62-yard touchdown catch with 9:31 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Chris Olave62-yd TD catch62-yard touchdown catchfrom Tyler ShoughLead never changed again+710–74 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryPanthers
Saints ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 64 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Panthers’s 50 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Panthers 2.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.42.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate, 33.3%, is past their previous low of 66.7% in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 10.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.5 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-8.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 64 snaps
Panthers-8.6 ptsright on their number · −2.7 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 50 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 90%
Tendencies room →Saints44.4%leaned — ran early · −14.4 vs their 58.8%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 45 early downs
Panthers47.5%right on their number · −5.4 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 48%
Tendencies room →Saints16.1%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Panthers22.2%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Saints42.9%right on their number · −5.9 vs their 48.8%, and they swing ±21.6 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
Panthers33.3%off script — took the kick · −34.7 vs their 68.0%, and they swing ±15.5 week to week (−2.23× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 68%
Tendencies room →Saints33.3%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Panthers25.8%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 28%
Tendencies room →Saints11.1%inside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Panthers16.1%leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 34.7 points below their season mean of 68.0% and 2.2 times their own 15.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
19/27, 282 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.8 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
17/25, 124 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-11.5 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Juwan Johnson banked 13.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.4 | +8.4 | 54% | 84% | 31% | 53% | 5/8, 104 yd, 1 TD |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 19.2 | +13.7 | 50% | 71% | 15% | 16% | 4/4, 92 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler ShoughQB · Starter QB | 19.0 | +9.8 | 82% | — | 0% | — | 19/27, 282 yd, 2 TD · 4 car, -3 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.3 | +1.8 | 79% | 70% | 13% | 0% | 18 car, 53 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 10 yd |
| Alvin KamaraRB · Committee Back | 14.5 | −1.5 | 63% | 61% | 12% | 0% | 22 car, 83 yd · 3/3, 32 yd |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.0 | −0.7 | 91% | 96% | 35% | 58% | 5/8, 60 yd |
| Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Featured Receiver | 8.2 | +1.2 | 36% | 41% | 22% | 10% | 5/5, 32 yd |
| Devin NealRB · Receiving Back | 6.1 | +0.3 | 35% | 39% | 12% | 0% | 4 car, 22 yd · 3/3, 9 yd |
| Jalen CokerWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | 0.0 | 75% | 81% | 17% | 11% | 3/4, 21 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −1.2 | 62% | 39% | 12% | 4% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 2.5 | −0.5 | 21% | 30% | 4% | 1% | 3 car, 14 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −2.0 | 87% | 100% | 12% | 25% | 1/3, 15 yd |
| Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +1.1 | 38% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 2.0 | −4.7 | 37% | — | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd · 7 car, 20 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 1.6 | −6.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/25, 124 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 6 yd |
| Trevor EtienneRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 32% | 22% | 4% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 70% | 81% | 4% | 19% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dante PettisWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 9:31 · Saints · 3rd & 8 at NO 38 · gained 62 · +6.56 EP · +21.8% win probability
142 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 153 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 142 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 78 yards from the NO 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints0
Panthers6Saints0Panthers7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Saints3Panthers7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Saints9Panthers7Saints10Panthers7How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Saints16Panthers7Saints17Panthers7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 19/27 | 282 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +11.8 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Devin Neal | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 8 | 104 | 1 | 31% | +6.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 4 | 92 | 1 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pete Werner | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 17/25 | 124 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −11.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_10_NO_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Panthers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 24 — under by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Tyler Shough | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 | −5.3 |
| +9.9 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 12% | +1.7 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 12% | +1.3 |
| Devaughn Vele | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12% | −1.0 |
| Zaire Mitchell-Paden | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +1.6 |
| Devin Neal | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 12% | −0.0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Reid | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Bresee | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Stalbird | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Stutsman | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Riley | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 1 | −5.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −4.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 5 | 8 | 60 | 0 | 35% | −2.1 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 22% | −0.7 |
| Jalen Coker | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 17% | +0.3 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 13% | +0.3 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −2.8 |
| Xavier Legette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.6 |
| Mitchell Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Brown | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tershawn Wharton | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevin Wallace | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nic Scourton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
