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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 24, Giants 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 3:06, 3rd and 7, on Russell Wilson — 18.2 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:06 · 3rd and 7
Russell Wilson
Bears
(3:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at NYG 27 for -11 yards (35-C.Gardner-Johnson).
32°F · 15.7 mph
Bears closed -4.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Chicago Bears 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 3:06, Bears +18.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
18.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Luther Burden IIIBearsQ4 2:14(2:14) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 10-L.Burden to NYG 19 for 27 yards (27-T.Nubin; 38-K.Black).
15.7pts
Caleb WilliamsBearsQ4 1:54(1:54) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bears won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Bears at 9 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 1 giveaway.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Giants170 of 178 plays carry both curves
(3:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at NYG 27 for -11 yards (35-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Swing +18.2 for BearsExpected points +1.56 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:06NYG +18% win prob(3:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at NYG 27 for -11 yards (35-C.Gardner-Johnson).
4th · 1:54CHI +16% win prob(1:54) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:14CHI +16% win prob(2:14) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 10-L.Burden to NYG 19 for 27 yards (27-T.Nubin; 38-K.Black).
4th · 0:43NYG +13% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson (49-T.Edmunds) [49-T.Edmunds].
2nd · 5:32NYG +10% win prob(5:32) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep right to 82-D.Bellinger (9-J.Brisker). CHI-9-J.Brisker was injured during the play.
2nd · 2:13CHI +9% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left tackle to NYG 39 for 9 yards (8-J.Holland).
2nd · 1:13
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Caleb Williams's 17-yard rushing touchdown with 1:54 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th1:54Caleb Williams·17-yd TD run17-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+720–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryBears
Giants4–5Bears
431Total yards393
6.2Yards per play6.3
39%Success rate47%
40%Third-down rate27%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
12Explosive plays9
21First downs19
4Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Bears ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Giants: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.03Bears: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Giants: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.03Bears: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Giants: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 70 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Bears’s 62 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, Bears 4.
NoteGiants outgained Bears 431-393 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 10Against their seasonTendencies
NYG's play-action rate, 41.9%, is past their previous high of 26.7% in week 4 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 10.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 9.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bears18.6%
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteNYG's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 41.9%, 19.7 points above their season mean of 22.2% and 2.2 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
74Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%73 snaps
65Austin SchlottmannC · Every snap100%73 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%73 snaps
78Andrew ThomasT · Every snap100%73 snaps
72Jermaine EluemunorT · Every snap100%73 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Every snap99%72 snaps
84Theo JohnsonTE · Full-time97%71 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Heavy rotation73%53 snaps
6Jaxson DartQB · Heavy rotation71%52 snaps
29Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Heavy rotation67%49 snaps
18Darius SlaytonWR · Heavy rotation62%45 snaps
80Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational38%28 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Rotational33%24 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Rotational29%21 snaps
88Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational27%20 snaps
85Chris ManhertzTE · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
John Michael SchmitzCPaulson AdeboCBChauncey GolstonDEEvan NealGGraham GanoKVictor DimukejeOLBJameis WinstonQB
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Williams scrambles+17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:54) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 1:54 · Bears · 2nd & 8 at NYG 17 · gained 17 · +3.12 EP · +16.7% win probability
168 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 91 yards from the CHI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
43%
Yards
822
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR50+0.2048%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0963%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.3179%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.3961%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.3017%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Giants 30
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Bears 49
Giants0Bears6
Giants0Bears7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 47 to the Giants 8
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 49
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Giants6Bears7
Giants7Bears7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 49 to the Bears 3
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Giants 36
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Bears 19
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended12 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Giants 33
Giants10Bears7
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Bears 14
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Giants16Bears7
Giants17Bears7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Bears 24
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 41
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Bears 28
Giants17Bears10
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Giants 4
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Giants20Bears10
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Bears 1
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Bears 45
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Bears 38
Giants20Bears16
Giants20Bears17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 9 to the Giants 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Giants 38
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Giants20Bears23
Giants20Bears24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 47 to the Giants 17
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Giants 46
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
