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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 10 · Mon, Nov 10, 2025 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 10
It turned at Q4 1:30, 4th and 1, on Josh Jacobs — 23.3 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:30 · 4th and 1
Josh Jacobs
Eagles
(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 40 for -4 yards (50-J.Phillips, 32-R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (32-R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at GB 39. Penalty on GB, Illegal Formation, declined.
Philadelphia Eagles 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:30, Eagles +23.3% win probability on one snap.
23.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Eagles at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.28 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Packers owned this one and still lost it — -0.16 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — 1 giveaway, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 40 for -4 yards (50-J.Phillips, 32-R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (32-R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at GB 39. Penalty on GB, Illegal Formation, declined
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Elliott's 39-yard field goal with 9:02 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Jake Elliott39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap C.AdomitisLead never changed again+33–03 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryPackers
Eagles ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 60 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Packers’s 65 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 2, Packers 1.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
PHI's play-action rate, 41.4%, is past their previous high of 26.7% in week 5 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
GB's play-action rate, 12.2%, is past their previous low of 15.2% in week 7 — the lowest of their 9 charted games through week 10.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles-10.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 60 snaps
Packers-11.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →Eagles42.9%inside their normal wobble · −10.0 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 42 early downs
Packers59.2%inside their normal wobble · +8.9 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 47%
Tendencies room →Eagles41.4%off script — faked the run · +19.0 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+2.03× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Packers12.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −14.0 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.77× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Eagles—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.8%.
Packers66.7%inside their normal wobble · +27.0 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±27.4 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 48%
Tendencies room →Eagles17.1%leaned — sat back · −9.1 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Packers34.5%leaned — sent pressure · +10.3 vs their 24.2%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 37%
Tendencies room →Eagles19.5%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Packers0.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −16.3 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.98× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
PHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 41.4%, 19.0 points above their season mean of 22.4% and 2.0 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
15/26, 183 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.5 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected
Passing · GB
20/36, 176 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-8.1 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
DeVonta Smith banked 5.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.7 | −0.1 | 74% | 55% | 18% | 0% | 21 car, 74 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 33 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.9 | +5.0 | 92% | 90% | 30% | 38% | 4/7, 69 yd, 1 TD |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.1 | −1.1 | 70% | 59% | 13% | 0% | 22 car, 60 yd · 3/3, 41 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 12.0 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/26, 183 yd, 1 TD · 5 car, 27 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.3 | −2.1 | 86% | 83% | 26% | 24% | 4/6, 43 yd |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 7.8 | −5.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/36, 176 yd · 5 car, 28 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Featured Receiver | 7.8 | −3.5 | 65% | 67% | 24% | 21% | 4/8, 38 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.5 | −0.3 | 82% | 76% | 12% | 41% | 2/4, 45 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 5.4 | +0.1 | 19% | 21% | 9% | 0% | 4 car, 17 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Luke MusgraveTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +0.8 | 76% | 79% | 9% | 3% | 3/3, 23 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −1.6 | 78% | 72% | 13% | 17% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Savion WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −5.3 | 62% | 48% | 12% | 13% | 1/4, 5 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 1.4 | −0.2 | 21% | 29% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 0.7 | −0.9 | 13% | 10% | 0% | — | 3 car, 7 yd |
| Chris BrooksRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.4 | 40% | 31% | 4% | 12% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 27% | 21% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 30% | 34% | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 40 for -4 yards (50-J.Phillips, 32-R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (32-R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at GB 39. Penalty on GB, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q4 1:30 · Packers · 4th & 1 at GB 44 · lost 5 · -3.24 EP · −22.8% win probability
157 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
3 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Eagles3
Packers0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Eagles9Packers0Eagles10Packers0Eagles10Packers6Eagles10Packers7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/26 | 183 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +8.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 60 | 2.7 | 0 | −6.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 | −5.2 |
| Will Shipley | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 7 | 69 | 1 | 30% | +5.1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 26% | +2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyx Hunt |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 20/36 | 176 | 0 | 0 | 3 | −8.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_10_PHI_GB
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 17 — under by 28.5.
Conditions and crew
| Tank Bigsby | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 13% | +2.7 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 9% | +1.5 |
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 13% | −0.5 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nolan Smith | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 |
| 74 |
| 3.5 |
| 1 |
| −4.3 |
| Jordan Love | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 12% | +1.8 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 24% | +2.2 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 18% | +1.6 |
| Bo Melton | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 15% | −2.0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Romeo Doubs | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 12% | −3.1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Savion Williams | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Williams | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin Cooper | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colby Wooden | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rashan Gary | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devonte Wyatt | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
