2025 Week 10 · Mon, Nov 10, 2025 · Lambeau Field

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Green Bay Packers

GB -1.5 upsetU 45.5 ✓Packers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Philadelphia Eagles 10–7 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:30, PHI +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:30PHI 10 — GB 7GB ball · 4th & 1PHI 72%

(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 40 for -4 yards (50-J.Phillips, 32-R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (32-R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at GB 39. Penalty on GB, Illegal Formation, declined

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:30PHI +23% win prob(1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 40 for -4 yards (50-J.Phillips, 32-R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (32-R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at GB 39. Penalty on GB, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q2 · 0:31PHI +18% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at PHI 36 for -9 yards (17-N.Dean). FUMBLES (17-N.Dean) [17-N.Dean], RECOVERED by PHI-50-J.Phillips at PHI 35.
Q1 · 0:59PHI +18% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right tackle to GB 14 for 10 yards (29-X.McKinney, 56-E.Cooper). FUMBLES (56-E.Cooper), RECOVERED by GB-25-K.Nixon at GB 14. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 36 for 22 yards (65-L.Johnson).
Q4 · 2:10GB +15% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to GB 35 for 25 yards (24-A.Mukuba; 32-R.Blankenship).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q3 · 9:02PHI Field goal
(9:02) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: PHI 3 — GB 0
Q4 · 10:42PHI Touchdown
(10:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 10 — GB 0
Q4 · 5:54GB Touchdown
(5:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 10 — GB 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Packers
Offensive plays	60	65
Total yards	294 (edge)	261
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	-0.08 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	33%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	48%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.28 (edge)	-0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.41	-0.16 (edge)
Third downs	8/16 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

15/26, 183 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.5 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

20/36, 176 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-8.1 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

21 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

-4.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Saquon BarkleyRB

22 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-6.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

4/7 for 69 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Christian WatsonWR

2/4 for 45 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 39	11	12	5:25	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 9	16	82	8:46	Fumble
3	GB	GB 36	4	12	1:03	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 21	4	3	2:17	Punt
5	GB	GB 22	6	24	4:01	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 20	4	8	1:03	Punt
7	GB	GB 41	4	2	0:48	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 26	6	26	4:43	Punt
9	GB	GB 32	8	33	1:31	Fumble
10	PHI	PHI 35	4	6	0:23	Turnover on downs
11	PHI	PHI 29	11	55	6:02	Field goal +3
12	GB	GB 27	9	32	4:16	Turnover on downs
13	PHI	PHI 41	4	1	2:10	Punt
14	GB	GB 20	9	45	4:46	Punt
15	PHI	PHI 20	5	80	2:11	Touchdown +7
16	GB	GB 25	13	54	4:46	Touchdown +7
17	PHI	PHI 28	11	29	3:31	Punt
18	GB	GB 10	7	29	0:52	Fumble
19	PHI	GB 39	4	4	0:59	Turnover on downs
20	GB	GB 36	5	18	0:27	Missed field goal

3 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 82 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	15/26	183	1	0	0	8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Saquon Barkley	22	60	2.7	-6.2
Jalen Hurts	5	27	5.4	-5.2
Will Shipley	4	17	4.3	-0.6
Tank Bigsby	3	7	2.3	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVonta Smith	4	7	69	1	30%	5.1
Dallas Goedert	4	6	43	0	26%	2.7
Saquon Barkley	3	3	41	0	13%	2.7
Will Shipley	2	2	17	0	9%	1.5
A.J. Brown	2	3	13	0	13%	-0.5
Jahan Dotson	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.5
Grant Calcaterra	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zack Baun	5	3	0.0	0
Reed Blankenship	2	5	0.0	0
Nakobe Dean	6	1	1.0	0
Cooper DeJean	4	1	0.0	0
Jaelan Phillips	3	2	0.0	0
Jalyx Hunt	5	0	1.0	0
Jihaad Campbell	2	3	0.0	0
Adoree' Jackson	3	0	0.0	1
Jalen Carter	2	1	0.0	2
Quinyon Mitchell	2	0	0.0	2

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jordan Love	20/36	176	0	0	3	-8.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	21	74	3.5	1	-4.3
Jordan Love	5	28	5.6	0	1.7
Emanuel Wilson	1	2	2.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Watson	2	4	45	12%	1.8
Dontayvion Wicks	4	8	38	24%	2.2
Josh Jacobs	5	6	33	18%	1.6
Bo Melton	2	5	28	15%	-2.0
Luke Musgrave	3	3	23	9%	-0.4
Romeo Doubs	1	4	5	12%	-3.1
Emanuel Wilson	1	1	2	3%	-0.3
Savion Williams	2	2	2	6%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Evan Williams	4	3	0
Isaiah McDuffie	2	4	0
Quay Walker	5	1	0
Edgerrin Cooper	2	4	0
Xavier McKinney	3	3	0
Colby Wooden	3	2	0
Keisean Nixon	2	2	1
Rashan Gary	1	3	0
Karl Brooks	2	1	0
Kingsley Enagbare	1	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -1.5
Closing total: 45.5
PHI moneyline: -110
GB moneyline: -110

Packers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 17 — under by 28.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: PHI 15 days · GB 8 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Matt LaFleur