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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 at Los Angeles Chargers 25. Final.
Chargers -3 ✓U 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 10
Los Angeles Chargers 25, Steelers 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 3:48, 3rd and 4, on Justin Herbert — 11.1 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:48 · 3rd and 4
Justin Herbert
Steelers
(3:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 29 for -7 yards (95-K.Benton).
Dome
Chargers closed -3 and covered, winning by 15.
Los Angeles Chargers 25–10. Biggest swing: Q2 3:48, Steelers +11.1% win probability on one snap.
11.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
R.J. MickensChargersQ2 2:16(2:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle intended for 4-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Mickens at PIT 48. 27-R.Mickens to PIT 38 for 10 yards (14-K.Gainwell).
10.1pts
Ladd McConkeyChargersQ2 0:16(:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Steelers at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 2 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — -0.12 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Steelers159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(3:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 29 for -7 yards (95-K.Benton).
Swing −11.1 for ChargersExpected points −1.92 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:48PIT +11% win prob(3:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 29 for -7 yards (95-K.Benton).
2nd · 2:16PIT +10% win prob(2:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle intended for 4-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Mickens at PIT 48. 27-R.Mickens to PIT 38 for 10 yards (14-K.Gainwell).
2nd · 0:16LAC +9% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 15-L.McConkey for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:17PIT +8% win prob(5:17) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT -3 for -12 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], and recovers at PIT -5. 8-A.Rodgers tackled in End Zone, SAFETY.
2nd · 11:47LAC +7% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 30-K.Vidal up the middle to PIT 41 for 11 yards (23-D.Slay). PIT-23-D.Slay was injured during the play.
2nd · 13:14PIT +7% win prob(13:14) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Dicker's 32-yard field goal with 7:35 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:30Chris Boswell·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder C.Waitman · snap C.Kuntz+33–0
1st5:17Chargers·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+23–2
2nd7:35Cameron Dicker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+33–5
Chargers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.38Steelers: −0.38 expected points added per play
−0.08Chargers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.53Steelers: −0.53 expected points added per play
−0.12Chargers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Steelers: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.02Chargers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 50 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Chargers’s 68 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Chargers 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's blitz rate sent, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 10 — 14.1 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 9.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.1 points.
LAC's play-action rate turned over: 35.9% in week 9 against 15.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chargers14.7%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteLAC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 22.5 points below their season mean of 25.5% and 1.5 times their own 15.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle intended for 4-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Mickens at PIT 48. 27-R.Mickens to PIT 38 for 10 yards (14-K.Gainwell).
Q2 2:16 · Steelers · 2nd & 6 at PIT 27 · gained nothing · -4.00 EP · −13.7% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 90 yards from the LAC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
40%
Yards
535
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0568%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.1476%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-1.29100%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.2370%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3022%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.0122%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.230%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Steelers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Chargers 13
Steelers3Chargers0
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 46 to the Chargers 41
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 49
Steelers3Chargers2
Drive ended3 plays, from the Steelers 6 to the Steelers 9
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Chargers 40
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Chargers 32
2nd quarter46 plays
No good5 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 20
Steelers3Chargers5
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Steelers 14
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Steelers 30
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Chargers 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 27
Steelers3Chargers11
Steelers3Chargers12
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Steelers 15
The period ended6 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Chargers 47
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 8 to the Steelers 30
Steelers3Chargers15
Field goal6 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Steelers 39
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Steelers 20
No good8 plays, from the Chargers 36 to the Steelers 37
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Chargers 44
4th quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 10
Steelers3Chargers21
Steelers3Chargers22
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Steelers 2
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Steelers 47
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Steelers 35
Steelers3Chargers25
Field goal5 plays
Steelers9Chargers25
Steelers10Chargers25
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Chargers 27
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 49 to the Steelers 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
