2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Cleveland Browns

BAL -7.5 no coverO 37.5 ✓20 mph windRavens closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 23–16. Biggest swing: Q4 2:39, CLE +27% win probability on one snap. Played in 20 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:39BAL 22 — CLE 16BAL ball · 4th & 1BAL 64%

(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:39CLE +27% win prob(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:37BAL +18% win prob(4:37) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 88-C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Schwesinger at CLE 14. 49-C.Schwesinger to CLE 23 for 9 yards (42-P.Ricard).
Q3 · 1:02CLE +17% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 9 for 59 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q2 · 10:26CLE +17% win prob(10:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-9-G.Delpit at BAL 6.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:59BAL Field goal
(4:59) 33-T.Loop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 3 — CLE 0
Q1 · 0:04CLE Field goal
(:04) 25-A.Szmyt 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: BAL 3 — CLE 3
Q2 · 8:47CLE Field goal
(8:47) 25-A.Szmyt 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: BAL 3 — CLE 6
Q2 · 7:53CLE Touchdown
(7:53) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 34-K.Mitchell INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Bush at BAL 23. 30-D.Bush for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 3 — CLE 13
Q2 · 4:22BAL Touchdown
(4:22) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 10 — CLE 13
Q2 · 1:02CLE Field goal
(1:02) 25-A.Szmyt 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: BAL 10 — CLE 16
Q4 · 14:09BAL Field goal
(14:09) 33-T.Loop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 13 — CLE 16
Q4 · 5:03BAL Field goal
(5:03) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 16 — CLE 16
Q4 · 2:39BAL Touchdown
(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 23 — CLE 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Browns
Offensive plays	58	54
Total yards	353 (edge)	187
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	3.5
Expected points added / play	-0.09 (edge)	-0.41
Success rate	43% (edge)	30%
Dropback rate	53%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34 (edge)	-0.54
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.21
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	2/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	5	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.41.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14/25, 193 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-12.8 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Dillon GabrielQB

7/10, 68 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.6 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

18 att, 103 yds, 1 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Quinshon JudkinsRB

17 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

3/5 for 78 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Cedric TillmanWR

3/4 for 52 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 30	5	9	2:24	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 21	15	72	7:41	Field goal +3
3	CLE	CLE 33	10	55	4:55	Field goal +3
4	BAL	BAL 35	6	15	2:17	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 20	5	20	2:27	Punt
6	CLE	BAL 6	4	0	1:32	Field goal +3
7	BAL	BAL 29	3	-9	1:01	Defensive touchdown
8	BAL	BAL 37	8	61	3:26	Touchdown +7
9	CLE	CLE 30	9	37	3:19	Field goal +3
10	BAL	BAL 34	5	8	0:32	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 11	1	2	0:26	End of half
12	BAL	BAL 35	5	5	2:17	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 25	4	-1	2:45	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 33	9	40	4:52	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 17	3	0	0:29	Interception
16	BAL	CLE 16	1	0	0:09	Interception
17	CLE	CLE 23	7	-3	3:26	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 32	5	63	1:56	Field goal +3
19	CLE	CLE 32	7	28	3:17	Punt
20	BAL	BAL 20	10	54	5:50	Field goal +3
21	CLE	CLE 20	5	0	0:27	Punt
22	BAL	CLE 44	5	44	2:01	Touchdown +7
23	CLE	CLE 35	9	40	1:34	Turnover on downs
24	BAL	BAL 26	2	0	0:57	End of game

8 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 72 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	14/25	193	0	2	5	-12.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	18	103	5.7	1	0.9
Mark Andrews	1	35	35.0	1	5.5
Keaton Mitchell	6	31	5.2	0	-0.4
Lamar Jackson	4	10	2.5	0	1.6
Zay Flowers	1	5	5.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	3	5	78	20%	4.2
Mark Andrews	3	5	32	20%	1.0
Keaton Mitchell	2	3	23	12%	-5.3
Derrick Henry	2	2	19	8%	1.3
Rasheen Ali	1	1	15	4%	2.5
Isaiah Likely	2	3	15	12%	-1.0
DeAndre Hopkins	1	4	11	16%	-2.0
Tylan Wallace	0	1	0	4%	-1.2
Charlie Kolar	0	1	0	4%	-5.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Hamilton	6	3	1.0	0	2
Alohi Gilman	2	4	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	3	2	0.0	0	3
John Jenkins	1	3	0.0	0	0
Roquan Smith	2	2	0.0	0	1
Nate Wiggins	4	0	0.0	1	1
Chandler Martin	1	2	0.0	0	0
Keyon Martin	3	0	1.0	0	1
Brent Urban	1	2	0.0	0	0
Rasheen Ali	1	1	0.0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dillon Gabriel	7/10	68	0	0	1	-2.6
Shedeur Sanders	4/16	47	0	1	2	-14.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Quinshon Judkins	17	59	3.5	-6.0
Dylan Sampson	1	19	19.0	1.7
Shedeur Sanders	3	16	5.3	0.3
Isaiah Bond	1	8	8.0	0.5
Dillon Gabriel	2	2	1.0	-1.6
Jerome Ford	1	2	2.0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Cedric Tillman	3	4	52	16%	3.1
Harold Fannin Jr.	2	5	26	20%	-1.8
Jerry Jeudy	3	7	21	28%	-4.5
Malachi Corley	2	2	9	8%	-1.0
David Njoku	1	2	7	8%	-1.9
Quinshon Judkins	0	2	0	8%	-0.9
Dylan Sampson	0	1	0	4%	-0.5
Isaiah Bond	0	1	0	4%	-0.4
Gage Larvadain	0	1	0	4%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Carson Schwesinger	8	3	0.0	1	1
Ronnie Hickman Jr.	3	6	0.0	0	0
Myles Garrett	5	0	4.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	4	1	0.0	0	1
Devin Bush	2	2	0.0	1	1
Grant Delpit	3	1	0.0	0	0
Isaiah McGuire	1	2	0.0	0	0
Myles Harden	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tyson Campbell	2	1	0.0	0	0
Donovan McMillon	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7.5
Closing total: 37.5
BAL moneyline: -440
CLE moneyline: +340

Ravens closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 39 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 44°F, wind 20 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: BAL 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 20 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.