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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:05 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 11
It turned at Q4 2:39, 4th and 1, on Mark Andrews — 26.9 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 23–16. Biggest swing: Q4 2:39, Ravens +26.9% win probability on one snap. Played in 21.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:39 · 4th and 1
Mark Andrews
Ravens
(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
26.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Browns at 2 of 14 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — -0.09 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.41 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 20.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mark Andrews's 35-yard rushing touchdown with 2:39 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryBrowns
Ravens ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 58 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Browns’s 54 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Browns 2.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BAL's sack or hit rate, 30.3%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-9.4 ptsright on their number · −0.9 vs their -8.5 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 58 snaps
Browns-5.6 ptsright on their number · −1.7 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 89%
Tendencies room →Ravens45.5%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 45.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 44 early downs
Browns48.7%inside their normal wobble · −7.4 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 45%
Tendencies room →Ravens16.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Browns27.3%right on their number · +3.8 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 102%
Fourth Down room →Ravens25.0%right on their number · −9.9 vs their 34.9%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Browns33.3%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 33.2%, and they swing ±26.8 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 57%
Tendencies room →Ravens33.3%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns45.2%leaned — sent pressure · +16.0 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 41%
Tendencies room →Ravens30.3%off script — got home · +16.2 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+2.04× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns22.6%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
BAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.3%, 16.2 points above their season mean of 14.1% and 2.0 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
14/25, 193 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-12.8 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
7/10, 68 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-2.6 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Mark Andrews banked 4.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.2 | +3.3 | 54% | 35% | 8% | 2% | 18 car, 103 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 19 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 15.7 | +4.5 | 61% | 68% | 20% | 15% | 1 car, 35 yd, 1 TD · 3/5, 32 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Featured Receiver | 11.3 | +3.4 | 89% | 94% | 20% | 31% | 1 car, 5 yd · 3/5, 78 yd |
| Cedric TillmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +2.1 | 78% | 79% | 16% | 23% | 3/4, 52 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB · Receiving Back | 7.4 | −0.4 | 26% | 32% | 12% | 0% | 6 car, 31 yd · 2/3, 23 yd |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.9 | −6.3 | 60% | 42% | 8% | 0% | 17 car, 59 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 5.1 | −3.9 | 82% | 91% | 28% | 27% | 3/7, 21 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 4.7 | −7.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/25, 193 yd, 2 INT · 4 car, 10 yd |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Featured Receiver | 4.6 | −1.5 | 73% | 61% | 20% | 22% | 2/5, 26 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −0.7 | 52% | 65% | 12% | 10% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| Dillon GabrielQB | 2.9 | −1.7 | 49% | — | 0% | — | 7/10, 68 yd · 2 car, 2 yd |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +0.2 | 29% | 33% | 8% | 0% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Rasheen AliRB | 2.5 | +1.2 | 20% | 32% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −4.1 | 69% | 71% | 16% | 31% | 1/4, 11 yd |
| Dylan SampsonRB | 1.9 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| David NjokuTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −0.3 | 65% | 76% | 8% | 5% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Shedeur SandersQB | 1.5 | −4.5 | 51% | — | 0% | — | 4/16, 47 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 16 yd |
| Isaiah BondWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −1.4 | 42% | 48% | 4% | 15% | 1 car, 8 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jerome FordRB | 0.2 | −0.4 | 31% | 48% | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 31% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| LaJohntay WesterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Patrick RicardRB | 0.0 | — | 31% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 43% | 32% | 4% | 13% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Gage LarvadainWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:39 · Ravens · 4th & 1 at CLE 35 · gained 35 · +5.46 EP · +36.8% win probability
150 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 72 yards from the BAL 21 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens3
Browns0Ravens3Browns3Ravens3Browns6How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, dropped.
Ravens3Browns12Ravens3Browns13Ravens9Browns13Ravens10Browns13Ravens10Browns16How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Ravens13Browns16How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Ravens16Browns16How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
Ravens22Browns16Ravens23Browns16How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/25 | 193 | 0 | 2 | 5 | −12.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 1 | +0.9 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 1 | +5.5 |
| Keaton Mitchell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 3 | 5 | 78 | 0 | 20% | +4.2 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hamilton | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alohi Gilman | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Gabriel | 7/10 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −2.6 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 4/16 | 47 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_11_BAL_CLE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 39 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 21.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 6 |
| 31 |
| 5.2 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| +1.0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 12% | −5.3 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 8% | +1.3 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12% | −1.0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 4% | +2.5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 16% | −2.0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| Charlie Kolar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −5.8 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| Nate Wiggins | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| John Jenkins | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roquan Smith | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chandler Martin | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keyon Martin | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brent Urban | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| −14.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Tillman | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 16% | +3.1 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 20% | −1.8 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 28% | −4.5 |
| Malachi Corley | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | −1.0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −1.9 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −0.9 |
| Dylan Sampson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Isaiah Bond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Gage Larvadain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwesinger | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ronnie Hickman Jr. | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 5 | 0 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grant Delpit | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Bush | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyson Campbell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McGuire | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Harden | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
