For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Baltimore Ravens 23 at Cleveland Browns 16. Final.
Ravens -7.5 no coverO 37.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 11
Baltimore Ravens 23, Browns 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:39, 4th and 1, on Mark Andrews — 26.9 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:39 · 4th and 1
Mark Andrews
Ravens
(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.4 mph wind
Ravens closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 23–16. Biggest swing: Q4 2:39, Ravens +26.9% win probability on one snap. Played in 21.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
26.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Carson SchwesingerBrownsQ3 4:37(4:37) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 88-C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Schwesinger at CLE 14. 49-C.Schwesinger to CLE 23 for 9 yards (42-P.Ricard).
18.1pts
Derrick HenryRavensQ3 1:02(1:02) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 9 for 59 yards (21-D.Ward).
17.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Browns at 2 of 14 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — -0.09 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.41 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Ravens152 of 161 plays carry both curves
(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −26.9 for BrownsExpected points −5.46 for BrownsThe model had Browns 14 points higher than the market did.play 146
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:39CLE +27% win prob(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:37BAL +18% win prob(4:37) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 88-C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Schwesinger at CLE 14. 49-C.Schwesinger to CLE 23 for 9 yards (42-P.Ricard).
3rd · 1:02CLE +17% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 9 for 59 yards (21-D.Ward).
2nd · 10:26CLE +17% win prob(10:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-L.Wester MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CLE-9-G.Delpit at BAL 6.
2nd · 7:53BAL +15% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 34-K.Mitchell INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Bush at BAL 23. 30-D.Bush for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:45BAL +14% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass incomplete short right [32-T.Simpson]. PENALTY on CLE-12-S.Sanders, Intentional Grounding, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 20. Penalty on CLE-72-K.Leveston, Offensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mark Andrews's 35-yard rushing touchdown with 2:39 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st4:59Tyler Loop·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+33–0
1st0:04Andre Szmyt·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Sunahara+33–3
2nd8:47Andre Szmyt·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Sunahara+33–6
2nd1:02Andre Szmyt·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Sunahara+310–16
4th14:09Tyler Loop·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+313–16
4th5:03Tyler Loop·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+316–16
4th2:39Mark Andrews·35-yd TD run35-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+723–16
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBrowns
Ravens6–3Browns
353Total yards187
6.1Yards per play3.5
43%Success rate30%
38%Third-down rate14%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays7
17First downs9
5Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Ravens: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.41Browns: −0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Ravens: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.54Browns: −0.54 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Ravens: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.21Browns: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 58 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Browns’s 54 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Browns 2.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's sack or hit rate, 30.3%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 25.0% in week 10.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
off script — got home · +16.2 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+2.04× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns22.6%
right on their number · +3.4 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.3%, 16.2 points above their season mean of 14.1% and 2.0 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
70Roger RosengartenT · Every snap100%61 snaps
77Daniel FaaleleG · Every snap100%61 snaps
72Andrew VorheesG · Every snap100%61 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%61 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%61 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Full-time89%54 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Heavy rotation69%42 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation61%37 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation54%33 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Heavy rotation52%32 snaps
16Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational43%26 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Rotational31%19 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Rotational31%19 snaps
34Keaton MitchellRB · Rotational26%16 snaps
26Rasheen AliRB · Situational20%12 snaps
81Devontez WalkerWR · Situational15%9 snaps
83LaJohntay WesterWR · Situational10%6 snaps
Inactive · 7
Marlon HumphreyCBAeneas PeeblesDTEmery Jones Jr.GCooper RushQBJustice HillRBJoe NoteboomTRashod BatemanWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Amani OruwariyeCBBasil OkoyeDTTyler HuntleyQB
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%55 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%55 snaps
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%55 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Full-time85%47 snaps
3Jerry JeudyWR · Full-time82%45 snaps
19Cedric TillmanWR · Heavy rotation78%43 snaps
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Heavy rotation73%40 snaps
72KT LevestonT · Heavy rotation73%40 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Heavy rotation65%36 snaps
10Quinshon JudkinsRB · Heavy rotation60%33 snaps
12Shedeur SandersQB · Heavy rotation51%28 snaps
8Dillon GabrielQB · Rotational49%27 snaps
16Isaiah BondWR · Rotational42%23 snaps
34Jerome FordRB · Rotational31%17 snaps
83Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational29%16 snaps
68Cam RobinsonT · Rotational27%15 snaps
74Teven JenkinsG · Situational20%11 snaps
82Brenden BatesTE · Situational13%7 snaps
22Dylan SampsonRB · Situational11%6 snaps
84Gage LarvadainWR · Situational7%4 snaps
98Adin HuntingtonDT · Situational2%1 snap
89Kaden DavisWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Alex WrightDEZak ZinterGEaston Mascarenas-ArnoldMLBSam KamaraOLBRaheim SandersRBCornelius LucasTJamari ThrashWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Mark Andrews+37% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:39) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews right end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:39 · Ravens · 4th & 1 at CLE 35 · gained 35 · +5.46 EP · +36.8% win probability
150 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 72 yards from the BAL 21 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
42%
Yards
538
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.6270%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.0942%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.4157%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.0745%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.3164%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.2433%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 39
Ravens3Browns0
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Browns 3
Ravens3Browns3
Field goal10 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Ravens 12
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 35 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 41
Ravens3Browns6
Field goal4 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Ravens 3
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Ravens3Browns12
Touchdown3 plays
Ravens3Browns13
Ravens9Browns13
Ravens10Browns13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Browns 1
Ravens10Browns16
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Ravens 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Ravens 42
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Ravens 43
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 30
Punt11 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Browns 32
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 39
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defenders
The period ended3 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Browns 9
4th quarter44 plays
Ravens13Browns16
Field goal3 plays, from the Browns 6 to the Browns 5
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Ravens 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
Ravens16Browns16
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Browns 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a trick play, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Ravens22Browns16
Ravens23Browns16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 44 to the Browns 35
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Ravens 25
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -7.5
Closing total
37.5
Ravens moneyline
-440
Browns moneyline
+340
Ravens closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 39 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 43°F at kickoff; a real wind at 21 mph out of the north-west; 0.02 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 21.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
4th · 8:40CLE +13% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers to CLE 47 for 18 yards (49-C.Schwesinger).
3rd · 4:44BAL +13% win prob(4:44) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 2-N.Wiggins [53-K.Van Noy] at CLE 30. 2-N.Wiggins pushed ob at CLE 16 for 14 yards (83-M.Corley).
