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2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Carolina PanthersWinner

30

Atlanta Falcons

27

ATL -4.5 upsetO 42.5 ✓Dome

Carolina Panthers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 8:06, ATL +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4ATL ↑CAR ↓
OT · 8:06CAR 27 — ATL 27CAR ball · 2nd & 9CAR 52%

(8:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to ATL 15 for 54 yards (55-K.Elliss).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 8:06ATL +41% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to ATL 15 for 54 yards (55-K.Elliss).
  2. Q4 · 1:15ATL +17% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 3:05CAR +15% win prob(3:05) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 39 for -5 yards (94-L.London). CAR-9-B.Young was injured during the play.
  4. Q4 · 1:29ATL +14% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 5-R.Dowdle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 5-R.Dowdle pushed ob at ATL 10 for 28 yards (3-J.Bates).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 5:31CAR Touchdown

    (5:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — ATL 0
  2. Q1 · 3:39ATL Touchdown

    (3:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-99-T.Wharton, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — ATL 7
  3. Q2 · 7:56ATL Touchdown

    (7:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-11-N.Scourton was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — ATL 14
  4. Q2 · 1:45ATL Touchdown

    (1:45) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — ATL 21
  5. Q2 · 0:28CAR Field goal

    (:28) 10-R.Fitzgerald 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — ATL 21
  6. Q3 · 12:10CAR Touchdown

    (12:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 17-X.Legette for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CAR 16 — ATL 21
  7. Q3 · 1:01CAR Field goal

    (1:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: CAR 19 — ATL 21
  8. Q4 · 2:48ATL Field goal

    (2:48) 45-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: CAR 19 — ATL 24
  9. Q4 · 1:15CAR Touchdown

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: CAR 27 — ATL 24
  10. Q4 · 0:21ATL Field goal

    (:21) 45-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: CAR 27 — ATL 27
  11. OT · 5:13CAR Field goal

    (5:13) 10-R.Fitzgerald 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: CAR 30 — ATL 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersFalcons
Offensive plays7658
Total yards489 (edge)348
Yards per play6.4 (edge)6.0
Expected points added / play0.13 (edge)0.13
Success rate41%52% (edge)
Dropback rate68%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.27 (edge)0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.19-0.02 (edge)
Third downs6/174/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)19
Sacks taken50 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs 0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

31/45, 448 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.2 expected points added · +2.2% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Michael Penix Jr.QB

13/16, 175 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

10.7 expected points added · +15.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

23 att, 104 yds, 2 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Rico DowdleRB

19 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Tetairoa McMillanWR

8/12 for 130 yds, 2 TD

27% of team targets · 10.3 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

7/9 for 119 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 31562:05Punt
2CARCAR 2713687:30Touchdown +7
3ATLATL 256751:52Touchdown +7
4CARCAR 356112:34Punt
5ATLATL 5141008:07Touchdown +7
6CARCAR 20542:28Punt
7ATLATL 418583:43Touchdown +7
8CARCAR 318581:16Field goal +3
9ATLATL 293180:25End of half
10CARCAR 327682:56Touchdown +6
11ATL—100:03Fumble
12CARATL 326333:52Turnover on downs
13ATLATL 97222:57Punt
14CARCAR 2110634:14Field goal +3
15ATLATL 228193:45Punt
16CARCAR 165251:59Punt
17ATLATL 187132:20Punt
18CARCAR 711324:52Turnover on downs
19ATLCAR 39450:19Field goal +3
20CARCAR 3511671:35Touchdown +8
21ATLATL 457280:52Field goal +3
22CARCAR 28200:16Turnover on downs
23ATLATL 20541:15Punt
24CARCAR 306603:35Field goal +3

11 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 100 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young31/4544830514.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Rico Dowdle19452.40-3.4
Chuba Hubbard4215.30-0.7
Trevor Etienne122.00-0.5
Bryce Young1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tetairoa McMillan812130227%10.3
Xavier Legette4883118%7.0
Rico Dowdle5755016%1.3
Tommy Tremble125405%3.2
Jalen Coker445209%6.1
Mitchell Evans222805%1.4
Ja'Tavion Sanders442209%1.0
Brycen Tremayne221705%0.7
Chuba Hubbard13707%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Tre'von Moehrig650.000
Claudin Cherelus280.001
Christian Rozeboom180.000
Nick Scott260.000
Nic Scourton320.000
Corey Thornton320.002
Jaycee Horn310.000
Chau Smith-Wade210.000
Mike Jackson110.001
Bam Martin-Scott200.000

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Michael Penix Jr.13/1617500010.7
Kirk Cousins6/1448000-3.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson231044.52-2.0
Tyler Allgeier3103.311.0
Michael Penix Jr.199.001.0
Kirk Cousins122.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Drake London79119031%8.8
Bijan Robinson4539017%2.2
Darnell Mooney3734024%-2.3
Kyle Pitts2314010%0.2
David Sills121107%0.6
Tyler Allgeier22607%-0.3
KhaDarel Hodge01003%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ronnie Harrison921.001
Jessie Bates620.000
A.J. Terrell510.002
Natrone Brooks320.002
Kaden Elliss501.000
David Onyemata220.000
Kentavius Street310.000
Jalon Walker400.000
Billy Bowman Jr.401.000
LaCale London301.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -4.5
Closing total
42.5
CAR moneyline
+180
ATL moneyline
-218

Falcons closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 57 — over by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
CAR 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Raheem Morris

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.