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Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 11
It turned at OT 8:06, 2nd and 9, on Tommy Tremble — 40.6 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 8:06, Panthers +40.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · OT 8:06 · 2nd and 9
Tommy Tremble
Panthers
(8:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to ATL 15 for 54 yards (55-K.Elliss).
40.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 2 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 1 giveaway.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Falcons at 7 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(8:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to ATL 15 for 54 yards (55-K.Elliss).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Ryan Fitzgerald's 28-yard field goal with 5:13 left in overtime put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Xavier Legette36-yd TD catch36-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce Young · two-point no good+616–21
Tetairoa McMillan12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce Young · two-point good+827–24
Ryan Fitzgerald28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+330–2711 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categoryFalcons
Panthers ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 76 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Falcons’s 58 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 7, Falcons 3.
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 22 team-games charted in week 11 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.3 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 16.1% in week 10 against 3.2% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 33.3% in week 10 against 71.4% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
7 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.5 points. · +0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-0.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 74 snaps
Falcons-6.4 ptsright on their number · −0.1 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 58 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 88%
Tendencies room →Panthers61.5%inside their normal wobble · +8.6 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 52 early downs
Falcons46.8%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 50.5%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 49%
Tendencies room →Panthers21.2%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Falcons22.6%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Panthers71.4%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 68.0%, and they swing ±15.5 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons0.0%leaned — took the kick · −35.8 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±32.3 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 70%
Tendencies room →Panthers25.8%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Falcons32.7%right on their number · −5.0 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 30%
Tendencies room →Panthers3.2%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.1 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.11× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Falcons19.2%inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
CAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.2%, 6.1 points below their season mean of 9.3% and 1.1 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CAR
31/45, 448 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
14.2 expected points added · +2.2% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
13/16, 175 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
10.7 expected points added · +15.6% completion over expected
Receiving · CAR
8/12 for 130 yds, 2 TD
27% of team targets · 10.3 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Tetairoa McMillan banked 11.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Alpha Receiver | 33.0 | +11.3 | 86% | 96% | 27% | 42% | 8/12, 130 yd, 2 TD |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 31.8 | +11.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/45, 448 yd, 3 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 30.3 | +1.5 | 85% | 84% | 17% | 3% | 23 car, 104 yd, 2 TD · 4/5, 39 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.9 | +3.9 | 92% | 87% | 31% | 38% | 7/9, 119 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Featured Receiver | 18.3 | +4.5 | 55% | 62% | 18% | 37% | 4/8, 83 yd, 1 TD |
| Rico DowdleRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.0 | −5.3 | 82% | 81% | 16% | 0% | 19 car, 45 yd · 5/7, 55 yd |
| Jalen CokerWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +3.8 | 68% | 79% | 9% | 15% | 4/4, 52 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 9.6 | +1.7 | 21% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 3 car, 10 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Michael Penix Jr.QB · Starter QB | 7.9 | +1.3 | 62% | — | 0% | — | 13/16, 175 yd · 1 car, 9 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Featured Receiver | 6.4 | −5.7 | 92% | 94% | 24% | 42% | 3/7, 34 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | +3.6 | 57% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1/2, 54 yd |
| Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +0.7 | 48% | 50% | 9% | 4% | 4/4, 22 yd |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | +1.3 | 38% | 27% | 5% | 7% | 2/2, 28 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 3.8 | −3.0 | 19% | 21% | 7% | 0% | 4 car, 21 yd · 1/3, 7 yd |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.9 | 34% | 29% | 5% | 5% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −1.0 | 83% | 97% | 10% | 5% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB | 2.1 | −2.8 | 38% | — | 0% | — | 6/14, 48 yd · 1 car, 2 yd |
| David SillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −0.7 | 56% | 65% | 7% | 6% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Trevor EtienneRB | 0.2 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Feleipe FranksTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jamal AgnewWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to ATL 15 for 54 yards (55-K.Elliss).
OT 8:06 · Panthers · 2nd & 9 at CAR 31 · gained 54 · +3.93 EP · +40.6% win probability
179 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 193 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 187. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 95 yards from the ATL 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Panthers6
Falcons0Panthers7Falcons0How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers7Falcons6Panthers7Falcons7Panthers7Falcons13Panthers7Falcons14Panthers7Falcons20Panthers7Falcons21Panthers10Falcons21How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers16Falcons21How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Panthers19Falcons21How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Panthers19Falcons24How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Panthers25Falcons24Panthers27Falcons24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Panthers27Falcons27How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers30Falcons27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 31/45 | 448 | 3 | 0 | 5 | +14.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 19 | 45 | 2.4 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Trevor Etienne | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 8 | 12 | 130 | 2 | 27% | +10.3 |
| Xavier Legette | 4 | 8 | 83 | 1 | 18% | +7.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'von Moehrig | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Claudin Cherelus | 2 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 13/16 | 175 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +10.7 |
| Kirk Cousins | 6/14 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −3.8 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_11_CAR_ATL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 57 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Bryce Young | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 16% | +1.3 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 54 | 0 | 5% | +3.2 |
| Jalen Coker | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 9% | +6.1 |
| Mitchell Evans | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 5% | +1.4 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 9% | +1.0 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 5% | +0.7 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Corey Thornton | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nic Scourton | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bam Martin-Scott | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Jackson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 23 | 104 | 4.5 | 2 | −2.0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 7 | 9 | 119 | 0 | 31% | +8.8 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 17% | +2.2 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 24% | −2.3 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10% | +0.2 |
| David Sills | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | +0.6 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7% | −0.3 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Harrison | 9 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jessie Bates | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kaden Elliss | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Natrone Brooks | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Billy Bowman Jr. | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalon Walker | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavius Street | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LaCale London | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
