2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Chicago BearsWinner
19
Minnesota Vikings
17
Chicago Bears 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, MIN +35% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:04MIN +35% win prob(:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
- Q4 · 0:50MIN +25% win prob16-W.Reichard kicks 61 yards from MIN 35 to CHI 4. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at MIN 40 for 56 yards (55-E.Wilson).
- Q4 · 0:56MIN +18% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 3:45CHI +15% win prob(3:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard [50-G.Jarrett] at MIN 48. 31-K.Byard ran ob at MIN 25 for 23 yards (74-D.Jackson).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 2:13MIN Field goal
(2:13) 16-W.Reichard 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: CHI 0 — MIN 3 - Q2 · 4:57CHI Touchdown
(4:57) 25-K.Monangai left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 7 — MIN 3 - Q2 · 2:04CHI Field goal
(2:04) 8-C.Santos 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Score after this play: CHI 10 — MIN 3 - Q3 · 10:36CHI Field goal
(10:36) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Score after this play: CHI 13 — MIN 3 - Q3 · 2:15CHI Field goal
(2:15) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Score after this play: CHI 16 — MIN 3 - Q4 · 12:38MIN Touchdown
(12:38) 27-J.Mason right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 16 — MIN 10 - Q4 · 0:56MIN Touchdown
(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 16 — MIN 17 - Q4 · 0:04CHI Field goal
(:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Score after this play: CHI 19 — MIN 17
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Bears | Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 73 | 54 |
| Total yards | 320 (edge) | 265 |
| Yards per play | 4.4 | 4.9 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.05 (edge) | -0.19 |
| Success rate | 45% (edge) | 43% |
| Dropback rate | 49% | 59% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.01 (edge) | -0.41 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.10 | 0.12 (edge) |
| Third downs | 7/18 (edge) | 3/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 (edge) | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · CHI
16/32, 193 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-0.9 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
16/32, 150 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-13.1 expected points added · -15.2% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
5/9 for 61 yds, 0 TD
28% of team targets · -6.8 expected points added
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | MIN 20 | 11 | 28 | 4:40 | Punt | |
| 2 | CHI | CHI 10 | 4 | 1 | 1:00 | Punt | |
| 3 | MIN | MIN 36 | 4 | 3 | 1:29 | Punt | |
| 4 | CHI | CHI 20 | 4 | 1 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 5 | MIN | MIN 40 | 8 | 47 | 4:13 | Field goal +3 | |
| 6 | CHI | CHI 25 | 8 | 33 | 2:22 | Punt | |
| 7 | MIN | MIN 27 | 4 | 6 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 8 | CHI | CHI 26 | 16 | 74 | 8:25 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | MIN | MIN 20 | 4 | 11 | 1:21 | Interception | |
| 10 | CHI | MIN 25 | 4 | 5 | 1:34 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | MIN | MIN 34 | 6 | 31 | 1:25 | Interception | |
| 12 | CHI | CHI 20 | 4 | 14 | 0:25 | Punt | |
| 13 | MIN | MIN 39 | 1 | 2 | 0:10 | End of half | |
| 14 | CHI | CHI 31 | 10 | 33 | 4:29 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | MIN | MIN 20 | 7 | 18 | 3:13 | Punt | |
| 16 | CHI | CHI 20 | 10 | 70 | 5:07 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | MIN | MIN 21 | 5 | 8 | 1:07 | Punt | |
| 18 | CHI | CHI 21 | 6 | -2 | 2:50 | Punt | |
| 19 | MIN | CHI 24 | 3 | 24 | 0:41 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 20 | CHI | CHI 35 | 9 | 38 | 4:25 | Missed field goal | |
| 21 | MIN | MIN 35 | 4 | 2 | 0:50 | Punt | |
| 22 | CHI | CHI 18 | 9 | 44 | 4:04 | Punt | |
| 23 | MIN | MIN 15 | 11 | 85 | 2:24 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 24 | CHI | MIN 40 | 5 | 9 | 0:50 | Field goal +3 |
8 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 85 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Chicago Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 16/32 | 193 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -0.9 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Kyle Monangai | 12 | 23 | 1.9 | 1 | -0.4 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | -1.4 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 18% | 2.1 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 21% | 2.3 |
| Colston Loveland | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 14% | 3.0 |
| Luther Burden III | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 18% | 0.2 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 11% | -0.9 |
| Kyle Monangai | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | -0.1 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 11% | -0.6 |
| D'Andre Swift | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -0.6 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Sewell | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Byard | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrique Stevenson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Andrew Billings | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Hardy | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Booker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Minnesota Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 16/32 | 150 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -13.1 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Jordan Mason | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 1 | 2.9 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 | 28% | -6.8 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 19% | -0.0 |
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 22% | -2.8 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | 1.2 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 19% | -4.6 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | 1.2 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 3% | -1.3 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Cashman | 6 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 1 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas Turner | 2 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eric Wilson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Drake Rodriguez | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Redmond | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- MIN -3
- Closing total
- 47.5
- CHI moneyline
- +124
- MIN moneyline
- -148
Vikings closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 36 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- U.S. Bank Stadium
- Roof / surface
- dome · sportturf
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Brad Rogers
- Rest
- CHI 7 days · MIN 7 days
- Coaches
- Ben Johnson vs Kevin O'Connell
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.