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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:24 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Bears165 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Swing −35.3 for VikingsExpected points −0.79 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 9 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04MIN +35% win prob(:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
4th · 0:50MIN +25% win prob16-W.Reichard kicks 61 yards from MIN 35 to CHI 4. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at MIN 40 for 56 yards (55-E.Wilson).
4th · 0:56MIN +18% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:45CHI +15% win prob(3:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard [50-G.Jarrett] at MIN 48. 31-K.Byard ran ob at MIN 25 for 23 yards (74-D.Jackson).
2nd · 0:42CHI +15% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep left intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 26-N.Wright at CHI -4. Touchback.
4th · 1:01MIN +10% win prob(1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-J.Nailor ran ob at CHI 15 for 16 yards.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cairo Santos's 48-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st2:13Will Reichard·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+30–3
4th0:04Cairo Santos·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.DalyLead never changed again+319–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryVikings
Bears5–3Vikings
320Total yards265
4.4Yards per play4.9
45%Success rate43%
39%Third-down rate27%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays4
19First downs14
2Sacks taken0
0Turnovers2
The read
Bears ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Bears: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.19Vikings: −0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.41Vikings: −0.41 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Bears: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.12Vikings: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 73 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Vikings’s 54 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Bears 3, Vikings 3.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 11Against their seasonOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, −14.2 pts, is past their previous low of −7.1 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
2.4 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 10.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
low through week 11Against their seasonFourth Down
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 6 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 11.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 10.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · +2.6 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Vikings13.9%
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteMIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -14.2 pts, 12.8 points below their season mean of -1.4 pts and 2.4 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Cairo Santos+44% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Q4 0:04 · Bears · 4th & 1 at MIN 31 · gained nothing · +0.79 EP · +43.9% win probability
163 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 85 yards from the MIN 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
41%
Yards
585
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1566%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR31-0.1142%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.1675%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1040%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.1038%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.9250%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.030%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.180%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 48
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Bears 11
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Vikings 42
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 24
Bears0Vikings3
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Bears 13
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 37
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Vikings 33
Bears6Vikings3
Bears7Vikings3
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Vikings 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 31
Bears10Vikings3
Field goal4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 20
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Bears 30
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 29
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Bears13Vikings3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Vikings 34
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 38
Bears16Vikings3
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Vikings 15
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 29
The period ended3 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Bears 29
4th quarter52 plays
Punt4 plays
Bears16Vikings9
Bears16Vikings10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Bears 16
No good9 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Vikings 27
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Vikings 37
Punt12 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Vikings 43
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Bears16Vikings16
Bears16Vikings17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Bears 15
Bears19Vikings17
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Vikings 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
