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2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

12

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

34

PIT -5.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓17 mph wind

Pittsburgh Steelers 34–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 0:51, CIN +19% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3PIT ↑CIN ↓
Q3 · 0:51CIN 9 — PIT 19CIN ball · 3rd & 9PIT 73%

(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Dugger [90-T.Watt] at PIT 27. 29-K.Dugger for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 0:51CIN +19% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Dugger [90-T.Watt] at PIT 27. 29-K.Dugger for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 7:38PIT +9% win prob(7:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 80-D.Washington to CIN 37 for 17 yards (22-G.Stone).
  3. Q1 · 11:51PIT +9% win prob(11:51) 30-J.Warren left end to CIN 12 for 35 yards (20-D.Turner).
  4. Q2 · 3:41PIT +8% win prob(3:41) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to CIN 38 for 17 yards (24-J.Porter).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:18PIT Touchdown

    (10:18) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 0 — PIT 7
  2. Q1 · 5:19CIN Touchdown

    (5:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-97-Ca.Heyward, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

    Score after this play: CIN 6 — PIT 7
  3. Q2 · 0:13PIT Field goal

    (:13) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: CIN 6 — PIT 10
  4. Q3 · 11:58CIN Field goal

    (11:58) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: CIN 9 — PIT 10
  5. Q3 · 4:20PIT Field goal

    (4:20) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: CIN 9 — PIT 13
  6. Q3 · 0:51PIT Touchdown

    (:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Dugger [90-T.Watt] at PIT 27. 29-K.Dugger for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 9 — PIT 20
  7. Q4 · 9:45CIN Field goal

    (9:45) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    Score after this play: CIN 12 — PIT 20
  8. Q4 · 3:46PIT Touchdown

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 12 — PIT 27
  9. Q4 · 3:34PIT Touchdown

    (3:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 86-N.Fant to CIN 33 for 5 yards (26-B.Echols). FUMBLES (26-B.Echols), RECOVERED by PIT-42-J.Pierre at CIN 34. 42-J.Pierre for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-26-B.Echols has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 12 — PIT 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBengalsSteelers
Offensive plays6359
Total yards298344 (edge)
Yards per play4.75.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.240.20 (edge)
Success rate33%44% (edge)
Dropback rate65%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.420.38 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.11 (edge)-0.03
Third downs7/157/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)45 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1619 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers20 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe FlaccoQB

23/40, 199 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-9.3 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Mason RudolphQB

12/16, 127 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.7 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

18 att, 99 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

10 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Kenneth GainwellRB

7/8 for 81 yds, 2 TD

28% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Darnell WashingtonTE

4/5 for 67 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1PITPIT 2210784:48Touchdown +7
2CINCIN 2911665:02Touchdown +6
3PITPIT 1911225:01Punt
4CINCIN 109254:20Punt
5PITPIT 20471:39Punt
6CINCIN 26470:56Punt
7PITPIT 236223:13Punt
8CINCIN 177243:10Punt
9PITPIT 79591:41Field goal +3
10CINCIN 30200:10End of half
11CINCIN 248513:07Field goal +3
12PITPIT 2716717:37Field goal +3
13CINCIN 329333:39Defensive touchdown
14CINCIN 2313375:56Field goal +3
15PITPIT 3514856:01Touchdown +7
16CINCIN 28250:18Defensive touchdown
17CINCIN 3511503:17Turnover on downs
18PITPIT 15100:05End of game

7 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Flacco23/40199111-9.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chase Brown18995.501.4
Tahj Brooks155.000.2
Kendall Milton221.000.9
Joe Flacco1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tee Higgins3863121%-7.8
Noah Fant5636015%-6.6
Ja'Marr Chase31030026%-3.0
Chase Brown6828021%-1.3
Tanner Hudson332208%0.5
Andrei Iosivas3420010%2.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Geno Stone450.000
Oren Burks270.000
Myles Murphy431.000
Jordan Battle330.000
Daxton Hill330.001
Barrett Carter130.000
Cam Taylor-Britt310.000
DJ Turner II220.000
Cedric Johnson210.000
PJ Jules200.000

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mason Rudolph12/1612710010.7
Aaron Rodgers9/151161011.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jaylen Warren10626.200.3
Kenneth Gainwell9242.70-1.4
Kaleb Johnson5153.00-2.3
Aaron Rodgers188.000.6
Connor Heyward231.502.5
Mason Rudolph1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kenneth Gainwell7881228%10.8
Darnell Washington4567017%3.6
DK Metcalf5849028%0.6
Pat Freiermuth111903%1.8
Roman Wilson121707%2.1
Jaylen Warren22507%-0.5
Calvin Austin III11503%-1.0
Jonnu Smith02007%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Patrick Queen450.000
Brandin Echols340.000
James Pierre330.002
Payton Wilson240.000
Jalen Ramsey220.001
Joey Porter Jr.120.001
Keeanu Benton120.000
Malik Harrison210.000
Kyle Dugger300.012
Esezi Otomewo200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Closing total
48.5
CIN moneyline
+205
PIT moneyline
-250

Steelers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 46 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
46°F, wind 17 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
CIN 14 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.