For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 300s tick · as of 12:21 PM ET · 12 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 11
It turned at Q3 0:51, 3rd and 9, on Kyle Dugger — 19.2 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 34–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 0:51, Steelers +19.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:51 · 3rd and 9
Kyle Dugger
Steelers
(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Dugger [90-T.Watt] at PIT 27. 29-K.Dugger for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.42 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bengals at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Bengals at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Dugger [90-T.Watt] at PIT 27. 29-K.Dugger for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kenny Gainwell's 11-yard touchdown catch with 10:18 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Kenny Gainwell11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron RodgersLead never changed again+70–79 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categorySteelers
Steelers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 63 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Steelers’s 59 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Steelers 4.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's play-action rate, 2.4%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 6.1 points clear of the next team along.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
CIN's blitz rate sent, 9.1%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 1.3 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
PIT's blitz rate sent, 17.1%, is past their previous low of 24.5% in week 7 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
PIT's sack or hit rate, 7.3%, is past their previous low of 10.2% in week 7 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals-1.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their 1.6 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 62 snaps
Steelers-1.2 ptsright on their number · −0.6 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 36% to 83%
Tendencies room →Bengals60.9%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 61.4%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 46 early downs
Steelers51.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 38%
Tendencies room →Bengals2.4%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.8 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.90× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Steelers24.2%inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 102%
Fourth Down room →Bengals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.0%.
Steelers25.0%right on their number · −7.6 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 65%
Tendencies room →Bengals9.1%leaned — sat back · −12.1 vs their 21.2%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Steelers17.1%off script — sat back · −20.8 vs their 37.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−2.05× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Bengals12.1%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Steelers7.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
PIT's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 17.1%, 20.8 points below their season mean of 37.9% and 2.1 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
23/40, 199 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-9.3 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
12/16, 127 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
10.7 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected
Receiving · PIT
4/5 for 67 yds, 0 TD
17% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kenny Gainwell banked 7.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny GainwellRB · Committee Back | 29.5 | +7.0 | 63% | 79% | 28% | 0% | 9 car, 24 yd · 7/8, 81 yd, 2 TD |
| Chase BrownRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.7 | −2.1 | 82% | 83% | 21% | 0% | 18 car, 99 yd · 6/8, 28 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Featured Receiver | 15.3 | +2.5 | 92% | 100% | 21% | 43% | 3/8, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +3.5 | 71% | 67% | 17% | 12% | 4/5, 67 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.9 | −3.1 | 86% | 100% | 28% | 73% | 5/8, 49 yd |
| Joe FlaccoQB · Starter QB | 9.9 | −3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/40, 199 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 9.4 | +2.7 | 57% | — | 0% | — | 9/15, 116 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 8 yd |
| Mason RudolphQB | 9.0 | +1.8 | 43% | — | 0% | — | 12/16, 127 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 8.7 | +1.0 | 28% | 21% | 7% | 0% | 10 car, 62 yd · 2/2, 5 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | −1.5 | 48% | 41% | 15% | 4% | 5/6, 36 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.0 | −10.6 | 97% | 100% | 26% | 42% | 3/10, 30 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +1.0 | 33% | 41% | 8% | 5% | 3/3, 22 yd |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −0.2 | 74% | 76% | 10% | 7% | 3/4, 20 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.6 | 46% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Roman WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −0.9 | 57% | 64% | 7% | 17% | 1/2, 17 yd |
| Kaleb JohnsonRB | 1.5 | −1.5 | 12% | 6% | 0% | — | 5 car, 15 yd |
| Calvin Austin IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | 29% | 36% | 3% | 3% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Tahj BrooksRB | 0.5 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Connor HeywardRB | 0.3 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kendall MiltonRB | 0.2 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Charlie JonesWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 54% | 55% | 7% | 18% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 23% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Dugger [90-T.Watt] at PIT 27. 29-K.Dugger for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 0:51 · Bengals · 3rd & 9 at PIT 35 · gained nothing · -9.39 EP · −24.5% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 86 yards from the PIT 7 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Bengals0
Steelers6Bengals0Steelers7Bengals6Steelers7Bengals6Steelers10Bengals9Steelers10Bengals9Steelers13How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Bengals9Steelers19Bengals9Steelers20Bengals12Steelers20Bengals12Steelers26Bengals12Steelers27Bengals12Steelers33Bengals12Steelers34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 23/40 | 199 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −9.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 18 | 99 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Tahj Brooks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Kendall Milton |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 8 | 63 | 1 | 21% | −7.8 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oren Burks | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Murphy |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 12/16 | 127 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +10.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 9/15 | 116 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_11_CIN_PIT
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Steelers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 22.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 46 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.9 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| −6.6 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 26% | −3.0 |
| Chase Brown | 6 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 21% | −1.3 |
| Tanner Hudson | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 10% | +2.8 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Daxton Hill | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Battle | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Turner II | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Barrett Carter | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedric Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Jules | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| +1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 10 | 62 | 6.2 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Connor Heyward | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Mason Rudolph | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 7 | 8 | 81 | 2 | 28% | +10.8 |
| Darnell Washington | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 17% | +3.6 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 28% | +0.6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +1.8 |
| Roman Wilson | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7% | +2.1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Queen | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Wilson | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Dugger | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Malik Harrison | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Porter Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
