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Game Center
2025 Week 11 · Mon, Nov 17, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 11
It turned at Q1 9:20, 1st and 10, on Dak Prescott — 11.3 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Dallas Cowboys 33–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:20, Raiders +11.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:20 · 1st and 10
Dak Prescott
Raiders
(9:20) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 9 for -7 yards (98-M.Crosby). FUMBLES (98-M.Crosby) [98-M.Crosby], RECOVERED by LV-97-T.Hemingway at DAL 15.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 4 of 9 on third down, against Raiders at 3 of 12 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(9:20) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 9 for -7 yards (98-M.Crosby). FUMBLES (98-M.Crosby) [98-M.Crosby], RECOVERED by LV-97-T.Hemingway at DAL 15.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
CeeDee Lamb's 18-yard touchdown catch with 14:55 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
CeeDee Lamb18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+710–610 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cowboyscategory by categoryRaiders
Cowboys ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 61 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Raiders’s 57 at 86%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Raiders 4.
Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
LV's early-down pass rate, 83.3%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.4 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
DAL's pass rate over expected, +6.7 pts, is past their previous high of +3.8 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Cowboys6.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.6 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 61 snaps
Raiders13.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +15.1 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+1.66× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 92%
Tendencies room →Cowboys50.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 50 early downs
Raiders83.3%leaned — passed early · +25.4 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+1.90× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 47%
Tendencies room →Cowboys35.3%leaned — faked the run · +7.8 vs their 27.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Raiders30.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 143%
Fourth Down room →Cowboys50.0%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±19.4 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Raiders75.0%inside their normal wobble · +20.5 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±34.7 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 58%
Tendencies room →Cowboys22.4%right on their number · −4.8 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Raiders29.4%leaned — sent pressure · +7.4 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 36%
Tendencies room →Cowboys20.4%inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Raiders11.8%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
LV's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 83.3%, 25.4 points above their season mean of 57.9% and 1.9 times their own 13.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
25/33, 268 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
8.6 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected
Passing · LV
27/42, 238 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-14.2 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected
Receiving · DAL
9/11 for 144 yds, 1 TD
34% of team targets · 12.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
George Pickens banked 7.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.4 | +7.4 | 67% | 82% | 34% | 63% | 9/11, 144 yd, 1 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 24.3 | +1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/33, 268 yd, 4 TD · 4 car, -4 yd |
| CeeDee LambWR · Featured Receiver | 17.6 | +1.1 | 73% | 94% | 22% | 25% | 5/7, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Tre TuckerWR · Featured Receiver | 14.7 | −0.5 | 97% | 96% | 21% | 32% | 4/8, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock BowersTE · Alpha Receiver | 14.2 | −7.3 | 97% | 100% | 31% | 55% | 7/12, 72 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 12.9 | −5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/42, 238 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 14 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.6 | +0.8 | 63% | 79% | 16% | 0% | 4/5, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.3 | −3.4 | 78% | 82% | 3% | 0% | 22 car, 93 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Ashton JeantyRB · Committee Back | 9.4 | −4.1 | 73% | 78% | 21% | 0% | 6 car, 7 yd · 6/8, 27 yd |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +2.9 | 43% | 26% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 7.1 | +1.8 | 24% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 1 car, 5 yd · 3/3, 36 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +1.9 | 47% | 45% | 8% | 11% | 3/3, 33 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −1.0 | 77% | 80% | 10% | 8% | 3/4, 13 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB | 3.3 | −0.5 | 25% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 2 car, 6 yd · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.7 | 28% | 27% | 3% | 8% | 1/1, 20 yd |
| Jack BechWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.5 | 15% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Malik DavisRB | 2.0 | −2.6 | 19% | 12% | 0% | — | 4 car, 20 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.4 | 36% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −2.4 | 34% | 38% | 6% | 2% | 1/2, 0 yd |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 18% | 9% | 3% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Carter RunyonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:20) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 9 for -7 yards (98-M.Crosby). FUMBLES (98-M.Crosby) [98-M.Crosby], RECOVERED by LV-97-T.Hemingway at DAL 15.
Q1 9:20 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at DAL 16 · lost 1 · -5.79 EP · −13.5% win probability
157 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 80 yards from the DAL 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Cowboys0
Raiders3Cowboys3Raiders3Cowboys3Raiders6Cowboys9Raiders6Cowboys10Raiders6Cowboys16Raiders6Cowboys17Raiders6How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Cowboys23Raiders6Cowboys24Raiders6Cowboys24Raiders9Cowboys30Raiders9Cowboys31Raiders9Cowboys31Raiders15Cowboys31Raiders16Cowboys33Raiders16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cowboys at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/33 | 268 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +8.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 22 | 93 | 4.2 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Malik Davis | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Hunter Luepke |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 9 | 11 | 144 | 1 | 34% | +12.2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 7 | 66 | 1 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DaRon Bland | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Marist Liufau | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shemar James |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 27/42 | 238 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −14.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_11_DAL_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 49 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 5.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 | −6.0 |
| +2.4 |
| Hunter Luepke | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 9% | +2.5 |
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 16% | +2.2 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.7 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −2.0 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Donovan Ezeiruaku | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Reddy Steward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Houston | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caelen Carson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kenny Clark | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 7 | 12 | 72 | 0 | 31% | −5.5 |
| Tre Tucker | 4 | 8 | 47 | 1 | 21% | +0.1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 8% | +3.9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 21% | −2.5 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3% | +1.3 |
| Jack Bech | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Michael Mayer | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 10% | −1.3 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Booker | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyu Blu Kelly | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Butler | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Adams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
