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polling · 300s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 12 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 11
It turned at Q1 11:18, 1st and 10, on Cooper DeJean — 17.0 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 16–9. Biggest swing: Q1 11:18, Eagles +17.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:18 · 1st and 10
Cooper DeJean
Eagles
(11:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 89-B.Wright INTERCEPTED by 33-C.DeJean (90-J.Davis) at DET 32. 33-C.DeJean to DET 11 for 21 yards (14-A.St. Brown; 60-G.Glasgow).
17.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Lions at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 1 giveaway.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — -0.23 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
(11:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 89-B.Wright INTERCEPTED by 33-C.DeJean (90-J.Davis) at DET 32. 33-C.DeJean to DET 11 for 21 yards (14-A.St. Brown; 60-G.Glasgow).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jalen Hurts's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:17 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Jameson Williams40-yd TD catch40-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Goff · kick no good, wide right+66–66 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 59 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Eagles’s 68 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Lions 1, Eagles 3.
Lions outgained Eagles 318-273 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 22 team-games charted in week 11 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.6 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
DET's sack or hit rate, 3.2%, is past their previous low of 8.7% in week 1 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
DET's early-down pass rate, 65.9%, is past their previous high of 61.9% in week 9 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Lions0.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their -4.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 59 snaps
Eagles-7.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →Lions65.9%leaned — passed early · +12.2 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 41 early downs
Eagles42.3%inside their normal wobble · −10.5 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 53%
Tendencies room →Lions30.8%right on their number · +4.9 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Eagles22.6%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Lions100.0%leaned — went for it · +34.4 vs their 65.6%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles20.0%right on their number · −12.8 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±36.0 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 61%
Tendencies room →Lions35.5%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Eagles28.2%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Lions3.2%leaned — stayed blocked · −13.0 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Eagles17.9%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
DET's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 34.4 points above their season mean of 65.6% and 1.7 times their own 20.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
14/37, 255 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-14.3 expected points added · -30.1% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
14/28, 135 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-8.4 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
4/7 for 88 yds, 1 TD
19% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jameson Williams banked 6.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Featured Receiver | 19.7 | +6.6 | 95% | 97% | 19% | 31% | 1 car, 9 yd · 4/7, 88 yd, 1 TD |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Committee Back | 19.6 | +1.4 | 73% | 74% | 22% | 2% | 12 car, 39 yd · 5/8, 107 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 14.5 | −5.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/28, 135 yd · 10 car, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 12.1 | −0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/37, 255 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.9 | −5.7 | 93% | 97% | 41% | 34% | 7/11, 49 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.0 | −9.1 | 81% | 74% | 7% | 9% | 26 car, 83 yd · 1/2, 7 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +3.4 | 32% | 52% | 7% | 11% | 2/2, 43 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.2 | −14.6 | 97% | 97% | 33% | 60% | 2/12, 42 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB | 4.7 | +0.3 | 39% | 41% | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 27 yd · 1/1, 10 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Featured Receiver | 4.4 | −3.7 | 90% | 97% | 19% | 12% | 2/5, 24 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 3.4 | +1.3 | 11% | 10% | 0% | — | 4 car, 34 yd |
| Brock WrightTE · Featured Receiver | 2.8 | −6.9 | 83% | 85% | 19% | 1% | 2/7, 8 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 1.8 | −7.7 | 97% | 100% | 19% | 25% | 1/5, 8 yd |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.6 | 21% | 16% | 7% | 10% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Isaac TeSlaaWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 34% | 44% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 64% | 56% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jacob SaylorsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Cameron LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Darius CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Xavier GipsonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 89-B.Wright INTERCEPTED by 33-C.DeJean (90-J.Davis) at DET 32. 33-C.DeJean to DET 11 for 21 yards (14-A.St. Brown; 60-G.Glasgow).
Q1 11:18 · Lions · 1st & 10 at DET 26 · gained nothing · -6.19 EP · −16.8% win probability
162 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 74 yards from the DET 26 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
Lions0
Eagles3Lions0Eagles6How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Lions6Eagles6Lions6Eagles12Lions6Eagles13Lions6Eagles16Lions9Eagles16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 14/37 | 255 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −14.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 | −6.3 |
| David Montgomery | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Jameson Williams |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 5 | 8 | 107 | 0 | 22% | +6.9 |
| Jameson Williams | 4 | 7 | 88 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell | 7 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Anzalone |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14/28 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −8.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_11_DET_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 25 — under by 21.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 9 |
| 9.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.7 |
| Grant Stuard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| 19% |
| +1.9 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 12 | 42 | 0 | 33% | −10.7 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Brock Wright | 2 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 19% | −9.1 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Brian Branch | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Harper | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyleik Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| DJ Reader | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Barnes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 26 | 83 | 3.2 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 1 | −4.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 7 | 11 | 49 | 0 | 41% | −2.5 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 | 7% | +4.4 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 19% | −0.4 |
| DeVonta Smith | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 19% | −4.0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Carter | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Reed Blankenship | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Mukuba | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moro Ojomo | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jihaad Campbell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
