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polling · 300s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 12 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 11
It turned at Q4 5:56, 3rd and 10, on Savion Williams — 19.1 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 5:56, Packers +19.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:56 · 3rd and 10
Savion Williams
Packers
(5:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 83-S.Williams to NYG 20 for 33 yards (28-C.Flott) [0-B.Burns].
19.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Packers won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Giants at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.35 expected points per snap, against Giants at +0.15 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Giants at 7 of 14 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 21.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(5:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 83-S.Williams to NYG 20 for 33 yards (28-C.Flott) [0-B.Burns].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Christian Watson's 17-yard touchdown catch with 4:07 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Christian Watson1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Malik Willis · kick no good, wide right+66–7Josh Whyle2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Love · kick no good, wide left+619–13Christian Watson17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Love · two-point goodLead never changed again+827–207 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryGiants
Packers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 52 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Giants’s 68 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Giants 5.
Giants outgained Packers 337-298 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected, −18.2 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 75.0% in week 5 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 11.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.0 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
GB's play-action rate turned over: 12.2% in week 10 against 40.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 3.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
NYG's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.3% in week 10 against 26.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
NYG's play-action rate turned over: 41.9% in week 10 against 12.9% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Packers-0.8 ptsright on their number · +3.6 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 51 snaps
Giants-18.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.2 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 81%
Tendencies room →Packers50.0%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 40 early downs
Giants36.0%leaned — ran early · −15.2 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 47%
Tendencies room →Packers40.0%leaned — faked the run · +13.9 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Giants12.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.3 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Packers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 39.7%.
Giants80.0%leaned — went for it · +26.8 vs their 53.2%, and they swing ±19.0 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 63%
Tendencies room →Packers19.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 24.2%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Giants43.3%inside their normal wobble · +10.0 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 37%
Tendencies room →Packers16.1%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Giants26.7%leaned — got home · +10.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.30× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
GB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 13.9 points above their season mean of 26.1% and 1.8 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYG
19/29, 201 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
6.4 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected
Passing · GB
13/24, 174 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.4 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Christian Watson banked 9.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian WatsonWR · Featured Receiver | 20.6 | +9.1 | 78% | 77% | 20% | 27% | 4/5, 46 yd, 2 TD |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Committee Back | 17.9 | +4.1 | 51% | 52% | 14% | 0% | 19 car, 88 yd · 4/4, 51 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 17.7 | +0.6 | 49% | 48% | 3% | 0% | 16 car, 44 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 17.7 | +4.8 | 87% | — | 0% | — | 13/24, 174 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB · Committee Back | 13.9 | +4.7 | 71% | 80% | 4% | 0% | 11 car, 40 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 11.0 | −2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/29, 201 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 10 yd, 1 TD |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Featured Receiver | 10.7 | +1.9 | 79% | 81% | 21% | 27% | 5/6, 57 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.3 | −2.0 | 76% | 73% | 32% | 34% | 4/8, 53 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.6 | −4.9 | 97% | 100% | 31% | 32% | 4/9, 36 yd |
| Josh WhyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +3.2 | 36% | 37% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd, 1 TD |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | +1.5 | 92% | 90% | 14% | 16% | 3/4, 36 yd |
| Malik WillisQB | 5.8 | +2.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Savion WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +3.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josh JacobsRB | 4.0 | −5.5 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 0% | 7 car, 40 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jalin HyattWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −4.0 | 61% | 84% | 14% | 32% | 2/4, 18 yd |
| Matthew GoldenWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −1.4 | 35% | 40% | 12% | 24% | 1/3, 24 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −0.9 | 56% | 60% | 8% | 4% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Bo MeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| John FitzPatrickTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.9 | 64% | 57% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Luke MusgraveTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −1.6 | 35% | 40% | 8% | 1% | 1/2, -1 yd |
| Chris BrooksRB | 0.8 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 47% | 39% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dalen CambreWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 83-S.Williams to NYG 20 for 33 yards (28-C.Flott) [0-B.Burns].
Q4 5:56 · Packers · 3rd & 10 at GB 47 · gained 33 · +3.25 EP · +21.6% win probability
151 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 85 yards from the NYG 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers0
Giants6Packers0Giants7Packers6Giants7Packers12Giants7Packers13Giants7Packers13Giants13Packers19Giants13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
Packers19Giants19Packers19Giants20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Packers25Giants20Packers27Giants20How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Giants, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 13/24 | 174 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +10.4 |
| Malik Willis | 2/2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 1 | +0.2 |
| Josh Jacobs | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 32% | +1.9 |
| Christian Watson | 4 | 5 | 46 | 2 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah McDuffie | 5 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Williams | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Keisean Nixon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 19/29 | 201 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +6.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_11_GB_NYG
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 47 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15.7 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Bo Melton | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| +5.9 |
| Savion Williams | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 4% | +3.3 |
| Matthew Golden | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 12% | +0.3 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +1.9 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | +0.1 |
| John FitzPatrick | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4% | +1.2 |
| Josh Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 8% | −1.5 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Quay Walker | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Parsons | 1 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Edgerrin Cooper | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colby Wooden | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Bullard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devonte Wyatt | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Devin Singletary | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 2 | +1.2 |
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Hodgins | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 21% | +7.6 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 14% | +5.3 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 4 | 9 | 36 | 0 | 31% | −1.9 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 14% | +3.8 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 14% | −3.0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Belton | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Burns | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jevon Holland | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cordale Flott | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zaire Barnes | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dalen Cambre | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dexter Lawrence | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
