2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · Nissan Stadium
Houston TexansWinner
16
Tennessee Titans
13
Houston Texans 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:50, TEN +23% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at TEN 41 for 17 yards (37-A.Hooker).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:50TEN +23% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at TEN 41 for 17 yards (37-A.Hooker).
- Q1 · 8:24HOU +12% win prob(8:24) 10-D.Mills sacked at TEN 12 for -11 yards (50-C.Barton).
- Q4 · 1:55TEN +11% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo ran ob at HOU 7 for 39 yards [55-D.Hunter].
- Q4 · 1:40TEN +11% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 11-V.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 0:55TEN Field goal
(:55) 6-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: HOU 0 — TEN 3 - Q3 · 10:49TEN Field goal
(10:49) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: HOU 0 — TEN 6 - Q3 · 7:25HOU Touchdown
(7:25) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 12-N.Collins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 7 — TEN 6 - Q3 · 1:36HOU Field goal
(1:36) 42-M.Wright 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 10 — TEN 6 - Q4 · 12:03HOU Field goal
(12:03) 42-M.Wright 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 13 — TEN 6 - Q4 · 1:40TEN Touchdown
(1:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 11-V.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 13 — TEN 13 - Q4 · 0:02HOU Field goal
(:02) 42-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 16 — TEN 13
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Texans | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 68 | 57 |
| Total yards | 315 (edge) | 229 |
| Yards per play | 4.6 (edge) | 4.0 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.07 (edge) | -0.12 |
| Success rate | 41% (edge) | 37% |
| Dropback rate | 69% | 75% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.01 | 0.00 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.20 (edge) | -0.50 |
| Third downs | 4/13 | 6/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 (edge) | 3 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 18 (edge) | 12 |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 3 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · HOU
26/41, 274 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-0.2 expected points added · -0.0% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
Cam WardQB
24/37, 194 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-2.7 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 35 | 16 | 56 | 6:40 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | TEN | TEN 12 | 13 | 65 | 7:30 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 33 | 6 | 27 | 2:15 | Punt | |
| 4 | TEN | TEN 14 | 7 | 25 | 3:46 | Punt | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 14 | 12 | 48 | 6:58 | Punt | |
| 6 | TEN | TEN 20 | 4 | 1 | 1:04 | Punt | |
| 7 | HOU | HOU 38 | 4 | 7 | 0:58 | Punt | |
| 8 | TEN | TEN 21 | 4 | 1 | 0:40 | Punt | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 35 | 2 | 2 | 0:09 | End of half | |
| 10 | TEN | TEN 35 | 9 | 37 | 4:15 | Field goal +3 | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 35 | 9 | 65 | 3:24 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | TEN | TEN 30 | 5 | 7 | 1:27 | Punt | |
| 13 | HOU | HOU 14 | 10 | 49 | 4:22 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | TEN | TEN 26 | 7 | 8 | 3:02 | Fumble | |
| 15 | HOU | TEN 34 | 4 | 9 | 1:31 | Field goal +3 | |
| 16 | TEN | TEN 20 | 5 | -1 | 1:31 | Punt | |
| 17 | HOU | HOU 38 | 4 | 6 | 0:56 | Punt | |
| 18 | TEN | TEN 12 | 4 | 9 | 2:20 | Punt | |
| 19 | HOU | HOU 46 | 4 | -2 | 2:15 | Punt | |
| 20 | TEN | TEN 5 | 12 | 77 | 3:22 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | HOU | HOU 35 | 10 | 48 | 1:35 | Field goal +3 |
7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 77 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Houston Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 26/41 | 274 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -0.2 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 | -5.0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 9 | 10 | 92 | 1 | 25% | 7.8 |
| Jayden Higgins | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 18% | 4.6 |
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 9 | 51 | 0 | 23% | 0.4 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 13% | 1.6 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | -0.2 |
| Woody Marks | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | 0.5 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 10% | -1.6 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -0.9 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Bryant | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calen Bullock | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Stingley Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Danielle Hunter | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Togiai | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Dylan Horton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 24/37 | 194 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2.7 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | 2.8 |
| Tony Pollard | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 | -4.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | -3.0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 | 8% | 4.5 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 14% | 1.2 |
| Gunnar Helm | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 14% | 1.3 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 19% | -1.4 |
| Mason Kinsey | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 8% | 1.2 |
| Chimere Dike | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 8% | 1.0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | 0.8 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 17% | -2.0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8% | -1.1 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Baker Jr. | 9 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cedric Gray | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Amani Hooker | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Winston Jr. | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Barton | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Marcus Harris | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendell Brooks | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arden Key | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyn Armour-Davis | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- HOU -5.5
- Closing total
- 37.5
- HOU moneyline
- -265
- TEN moneyline
- +215
Texans closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 29 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Nissan Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 64°F, wind 8 mph
- Referee
- Shawn Hochuli
- Rest
- HOU 7 days · TEN 14 days
- Coaches
- DeMeco Ryans vs Brian Callahan
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.