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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Texans165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at TEN 41 for 17 yards (37-A.Hooker).
Swing −23.2 for TitansExpected points −1.70 for TitansThe model had Titans 6 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:50TEN +23% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at TEN 41 for 17 yards (37-A.Hooker).
1st · 8:24HOU +12% win prob(8:24) 10-D.Mills sacked at TEN 12 for -11 yards (50-C.Barton).
4th · 1:55TEN +11% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo ran ob at HOU 7 for 39 yards [55-D.Hunter].
4th · 1:40TEN +11% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 11-V.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:55TEN +10% win prob(:55) 6-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
4th · 0:02TEN +10% win prob(:02) 42-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
2nd · 4:04HOU +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matthew Wright's 35-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st0:55Joey Slye·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+30–3
3rd10:49Joey Slye·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+30–6
3rd7:25Nico Collins·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+77–6
3rd1:36Matthew Wright·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+310–6
4th12:03Matthew Wright·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+313–6
4th0:02Matthew Wright·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.BrinkmanLead never changed again+316–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryTitans
Texans6–2Titans
315Total yards229
4.6Yards per play4.0
41%Success rate37%
31%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays3
18First downs12
4Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Texans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Texans: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.12Titans: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Texans: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.00Titans: +0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Texans: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.50Titans: −0.50 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 68 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Titans’s 57 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Titans 1.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 11Against their seasonTendencies
TEN's blitz rate sent, 42.6%, is past their previous high of 37.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Titans14.9%
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteTEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 42.6%, 17.1 points above their season mean of 25.5% and 2.0 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Matthew Wright+21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 42-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q4 0:02 · Texans · 3rd & 2 at TEN 17 · gained nothing · +0.26 EP · +21.3% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 95 yards from the TEN 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
544
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.1174%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1383%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.0353%
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR8-0.7150%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.3840%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Texans0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs17 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Titans 1
Texans0Titans3
Field goal17 plays, from the Titans 12 to the Texans 31
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 46
2nd quarter41 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 36 to midfield
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Titans 29
Punt14 plays, from the Texans 14 to the Titans 28
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 21
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Texans 45
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 22
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Texans0Titans6
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Texans 28
Texans6Titans6
Texans7Titans6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Titans 1
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 37
Texans10Titans6
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 14 to the Titans 23
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Titans 27
4th quarter57 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Titans 42
Texans13Titans6
Field goal4 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Titans 25
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 25
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Texans 44
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 12 to the Titans 18
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 46 to the Titans 49
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Texans13Titans12
Texans13Titans13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Titans 5 to the Texans 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Texans16Titans13
Field goal15 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Titans 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
