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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:51 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 11
It turned at Q4 11:00, 3rd and 20, on Patrick Mahomes — 23.6 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:00 · 3rd and 20
Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs
(11:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 5-M.Brown [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.
Denver Broncos 22–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 11:00, Chiefs +23.6% win probability on one snap.
23.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — +0.15 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Chiefs at 1 giveaway.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 3 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Chiefs at 5 of 13 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(11:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 5-M.Brown [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Wil Lutz's 35-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Travis Kelce21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomes · kick blocked by F.Crum+619–16
Wil Lutz35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+319–2210 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryBroncos
Broncos ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 62 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Broncos’s 60 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Broncos 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's pass rate over expected, +17.4 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 3.9 points clear of the next team along.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 47.5% in week 10 against 62.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs17.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +13.5 vs their 3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+1.79× that swing) · 62 snaps
Broncos4.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 1.4 pts, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 38% to 81%
Tendencies room →Chiefs75.0%leaned — passed early · +12.7 vs their 62.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.82× that swing) · 48 early downs
Broncos62.2%inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 46%
Tendencies room →Chiefs12.2%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.43× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Broncos14.6%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.4 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 105%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 56.0%.
Broncos—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 70%
Tendencies room →Chiefs34.1%right on their number · −5.5 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Broncos30.6%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 30.1%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 45%
Tendencies room →Chiefs12.2%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Broncos16.3%inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
KC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 12.7 points above their season mean of 62.3% and 1.8 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
24/37, 295 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
5.1 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected
Passing · KC
29/45, 276 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
1.2 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Travis Kelce banked 4.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 24.1 | +4.6 | 79% | 82% | 30% | 19% | 9/13, 91 yd, 1 TD |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 13.3 | −3.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/45, 276 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Pat BryantWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.2 | +3.7 | 56% | 61% | 17% | 18% | 5/6, 82 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.2 | +1.9 | 80% | 76% | 5% | 0% | 13 car, 59 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 3 yd |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 12.6 | −2.6 | 100% | — | 3% | 1% | 24/37, 295 yd · 3 car, 8 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Featured Receiver | 12.4 | −1.2 | 66% | 78% | 22% | 61% | 4/8, 84 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Featured Receiver | 9.9 | −2.9 | 92% | 90% | 22% | 20% | 4/8, 59 yd |
| Rashee RiceWR · Featured Receiver | 9.8 | −4.3 | 76% | 69% | 21% | 12% | 6/9, 38 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 8.4 | +3.0 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 19 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, -5 yd |
| RJ HarveyRB · Committee Back | 8.0 | −2.5 | 61% | 59% | 8% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd · 11 car, 30 yd · 3/3, 20 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | +1.9 | 43% | 39% | 9% | 9% | 4/4, 40 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +0.2 | 40% | 56% | 14% | 1% | 4/5, 33 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +3.0 | 23% | 29% | 5% | 27% | 1/2, 61 yd |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −3.5 | 76% | 71% | 12% | 21% | 3/5, 25 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −1.8 | 51% | 49% | 7% | 4% | 2/3, 9 yd |
| Brashard SmithRB | 2.8 | −2.8 | 17% | 18% | 7% | 1% | 2/3, 8 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 2.4 | −0.8 | 31% | 24% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | 66% | 51% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.3 | 11% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Tyler BadieRB | 1.0 | −0.5 | 13% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 0.2 | −0.4 | 24% | 29% | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB | 0.0 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nikko RemigioWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 34% | 35% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 5-M.Brown [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.
Q4 11:00 · Chiefs · 3rd & 20 at KC 28 · gained nothing · +4.59 EP · +25.0% win probability
166 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 181 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 89 yards from the DEN 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs0
Broncos3Chiefs0Broncos6Chiefs3Broncos6Chiefs6Broncos6How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs6Broncos12Chiefs6Broncos13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs12Broncos13Chiefs13Broncos13How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs13Broncos16How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs19Broncos16Chiefs19Broncos19How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs19Broncos22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/45 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 1 | +2.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 9 | 13 | 91 | 1 | 30% | +6.4 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 61 | 0 | 5% | +3.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamarri Conner | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Roland-Wallace | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Bolton | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Drue Tranquill |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_11_KC_DEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 41 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 9% | +2.2 |
| Rashee Rice | 6 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 21% | −0.3 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 12% | +0.8 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 7% | +0.0 |
| Brashard Smith | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 7% | −2.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −0.8 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −3.4 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryan Cook | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton Gillotte | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 1 | +0.9 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Franklin | 4 | 8 | 84 | 0 | 22% | +2.4 |
| Pat Bryant | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 | 17% | +6.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 22% | +2.3 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 14% | +0.4 |
| RJ Harvey | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8% | +0.9 |
| Adam Prentice | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +0.0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Bo Nix | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Strnad | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 5 | 1 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Abrams-Draine | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jahdae Barron | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jones | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devon Key | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
