2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High

Kansas City Chiefs

Denver BroncosWinner

KC -3.5 upsetU 44.5 ✓Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 22–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 11:00, DEN +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 11:00KC 13 — DEN 16KC ball · 3rd & 20DEN 65%

(11:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 5-M.Brown [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 11:00DEN +24% win prob(11:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 5-M.Brown [99-Z.Allen]. PENALTY on DEN-21-R.Moss, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.
Q3 · 3:11DEN +21% win prob(3:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 80-T.Thornton to DEN 11 for 61 yards (29-J.McMillian) [98-J.Franklin-Myers].
Q4 · 2:05DEN +20% win prob(2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton to DEN 41 for 20 yards (6-B.Cook).
Q4 · 0:54DEN +18% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 11-T.Franklin to KC 15 for 32 yards (35-J.Watson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:39DEN Field goal
(7:39) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: KC 0 — DEN 3
Q1 · 4:56DEN Field goal
(4:56) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: KC 0 — DEN 6
Q1 · 0:52KC Field goal
(:52) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 3 — DEN 6
Q2 · 4:41KC Field goal
(4:41) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: KC 6 — DEN 6
Q3 · 4:11DEN Touchdown
(4:11) 38-J.McLaughlin up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-95-C.Jones, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 6 — DEN 13
Q3 · 0:57KC Touchdown
(:57) 29-K.Hunt left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 13 — DEN 13
Q4 · 12:54DEN Field goal
(12:54) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: KC 13 — DEN 16
Q4 · 10:04KC Touchdown
(10:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: KC 19 — DEN 16
Q4 · 4:15DEN Field goal
(4:15) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: KC 19 — DEN 19
Q4 · 0:03DEN Field goal
(:03) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: KC 19 — DEN 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Broncos
Offensive plays	62	60
Total yards	311	343 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	0.03
Success rate	44%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	79%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	5/13	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	16
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

24/37, 295 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

5.1 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

29/45, 276 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.2 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

13 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

RJ HarveyRB

11 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

9/13 for 91 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Troy FranklinWR

4/8 for 84 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 35	15	54	7:24	Field goal +3
2	KC	KC 28	6	11	1:15	Punt
3	DEN	KC 11	4	5	1:28	Field goal +3
4	KC	KC 29	10	39	4:04	Field goal +3
5	DEN	DEN 40	5	3	1:39	Punt
6	KC	KC 11	16	91	9:32	Field goal +3
7	DEN	DEN 29	6	17	1:34	Punt
8	KC	KC 10	4	2	1:18	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 27	4	9	1:19	Punt
10	KC	KC 24	5	8	0:27	Turnover on downs
11	KC	KC 32	10	47	4:56	Interception
12	DEN	DEN 11	12	89	6:01	Touchdown +7
13	KC	KC 25	8	75	3:14	Touchdown +7
14	DEN	DEN 20	9	60	2:59	Field goal +3
15	KC	KC 27	8	36	2:53	Touchdown +6
16	DEN	DEN 28	5	18	1:46	Punt
17	KC	KC 12	4	13	1:41	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 45	6	19	2:20	Field goal +3
19	KC	KC 26	5	-11	1:11	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 26	10	69	2:59	Field goal +3

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 91 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	29/45	276	1	1	3	1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	13	59	4.5	1	2.0
Patrick Mahomes	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	9	13	91	1	30%	6.4
Tyquan Thornton	1	2	61	0	5%	3.9
Marquise Brown	4	4	40	0	9%	2.2
Rashee Rice	6	9	38	0	21%	-0.3
Xavier Worthy	3	5	25	0	12%	0.8
Noah Gray	2	3	9	0	7%	0.0
Brashard Smith	2	3	8	0	7%	-2.1
Kareem Hunt	1	2	3	0	5%	-0.8
Robert Tonyan	1	1	1	0	2%	-0.5
Elijah Mitchell	0	1	0	0	2%	-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Chamarri Conner	5	3	1.0	0
Christian Roland-Wallace	4	3	0.0	1
Drue Tranquill	3	3	0.0	0
Nick Bolton	5	1	0.0	1
Bryan Cook	4	1	0.0	0
Leo Chenal	2	3	0.0	1
Jaylen Watson	2	1	0.0	0
Trent McDuffie	3	0	0.0	0
George Karlaftis	2	1	0.0	0
Charles Omenihu	1	1	0.0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	24/37	295	0	0	2	5.1
RJ Harvey	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
RJ Harvey	11	30	2.7	0	-2.6
Jaleel McLaughlin	6	19	3.2	1	0.9
Bo Nix	3	8	2.7	0	-1.0
Marvin Mims Jr.	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Troy Franklin	4	8	84	22%	2.4
Pat Bryant	5	6	82	17%	6.1
Courtland Sutton	4	8	59	22%	2.3
Evan Engram	4	5	33	14%	0.4
RJ Harvey	3	3	20	8%	0.9
Adam Prentice	1	2	14	6%	0.0
Adam Trautman	1	1	8	3%	0.6
Bo Nix	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
Tyler Badie	1	1	0	3%	-0.7
Jaleel McLaughlin	1	1	-5	3%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Justin Strnad	4	6	0.0	0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian	5	1	2.0	1	1
Talanoa Hufanga	3	3	0.0	0	1
Riley Moss	3	1	0.0	0	0
Kris Abrams-Draine	3	1	0.0	0	1
Jahdae Barron	2	2	0.0	0	0
Dre Greenlaw	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jonathon Cooper	1	3	0.0	0	0
Brandon Jones	4	0	0.0	0	1
Devon Key	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3.5
Closing total: 44.5
KC moneyline: -218
DEN moneyline: +180

Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 41 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 70°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: KC 14 days · DEN 10 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.