For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

6

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

35

LAC -3 upsetU 43.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 35–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 12:54, LAC +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑LAC ↓
Q2 · 12:54LAC 3 — JAX 7JAX ball · 1st & 10JAX 59%

(12:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at JAX 42. 26-D.Jackson pushed ob at JAX 42 for no gain (17-T.Patrick).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 12:54LAC +13% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left intended for 17-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at JAX 42. 26-D.Jackson pushed ob at JAX 42 for no gain (17-T.Patrick).
  2. Q2 · 8:56LAC +9% win prob(8:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at JAX 28 for -14 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen).
  3. Q2 · 2:45JAX +9% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to JAX 45 for 30 yards (30-M.Brown).
  4. Q3 · 11:32JAX +7% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 3-J.Meyers to LAC 23 for 21 yards (2-E.Molden).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:35LAC Field goal

    (3:35) 11-C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — JAX 0
  2. Q1 · 0:04JAX Touchdown

    (:04) 55-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 33-B.Tuten up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 3 — JAX 7
  3. Q2 · 8:22LAC Field goal

    (8:22) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — JAX 7
  4. Q2 · 3:42JAX Touchdown

    (3:42) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-T.Etienne. 1-T.Etienne left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — JAX 14
  5. Q3 · 7:53JAX Touchdown

    (7:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — JAX 21
  6. Q4 · 11:43JAX Touchdown

    (11:43) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 17-T.Patrick for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — JAX 28
  7. Q4 · 11:11JAX Touchdown

    (11:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 6 — JAX 35

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersJaguars
Offensive plays4569
Total yards135345 (edge)
Yards per play3.05.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.510.08 (edge)
Success rate31%52% (edge)
Dropback rate71%35%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.650.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.180.09 (edge)
Third downs3/125/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)36 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps727 (edge)
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers21 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.51.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

14/22, 153 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.4 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

10/18, 81 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-14.2 expected points added · -8.2% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Bhayshul TutenRB

15 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

19 att, 73 yds, 2 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Jakobi MeyersWR

5/6 for 64 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

4/6 for 53 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LACLAC 235181:32Punt
2JAXJAX 1210475:16Turnover on downs
3LACLAC 429354:41Field goal +3
4JAXJAX 268433:31Touchdown +7
5LACLAC 215-52:06Punt
6JAXJAX 33100:06Interception
7LACJAX 42994:33Field goal +3
8JAXJAX 4011604:38Touchdown +7
9LACLAC 258433:17Punt
10JAXJAX 1230:20End of half
11JAXJAX 3513607:10Touchdown +7
12LACLAC 28521:54Punt
13JAXJAX 2417769:18Touchdown +7
14LACLAC 28200:23Interception
15JAXLAC 133130:13Touchdown +7
16LACLAC 35520:40Fumble
17JAXLAC 37472:21Turnover on downs
18LACLAC 319312:59Turnover on downs
19JAXJAX 388365:02End of game

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 76 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert10/1881012-14.2
Trey Lance3/837001-7.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Herbert3217.001.0
Kimani Vidal5132.60-0.2
Amar Johnson284.00-0.1
Trey Lance310.30-0.2
Trayveon Williams3-1-0.30-1.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen4653025%2.0
Oronde Gadsden II2541021%-0.8
Ladd McConkey3413017%-7.9
Tre Harris111204%0.5
Amar Johnson01004%-0.7
Quentin Johnston030013%-1.3
Derius Davis01004%-0.6
Trayveon Williams11004%-2.8
Kimani Vidal22-108%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Elijah Molden520.000
Justin Eboigbe510.000
Denzel Perryman330.000
Derwin James230.001
Jamaree Caldwell230.000
Teair Tart410.000
R.J. Mickens410.000
Daiyan Henley410.000
Cam Hart400.000
Kendall Williamson210.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence14/221531102.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bhayshul Tuten15744.912.8
Travis Etienne19733.822.5
LeQuint Allen Jr.8364.50-1.7
Trevor Lawrence591.81-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jakobi Meyers5664027%5.0
Johnny Mundt2325014%1.4
Parker Washington222009%1.8
Tim Patrick3420118%-2.3
Austin Trammell111305%2.2
Quintin Morris1311014%-3.9
Travis Etienne02009%-1.2
Dyami Brown01005%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Andrew Wingard320.001
Foye Oluokun320.002
Christian Braswell220.001
Josh Hines-Allen221.001
Travon Walker220.500
Dennis Gardeck130.000
Arik Armstead211.000
Yasir Abdullah210.000
Devin Lloyd110.000
Branson Combs110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -3
Closing total
43.5
LAC moneyline
-155
JAX moneyline
+130

Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 41 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
74°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
LAC 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Liam Coen