2025 Week 11 · Thu, Nov 13, 2025 · Gillette Stadium

New York Jets

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -12.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓Patriots closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 13.

New England Patriots 27–14. Biggest swing: Q1 9:34, NE +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:34NYJ 0 — NE 0NYJ ball · 3rd & 5NE 83%

(9:34) (Shotgun) 32-I.Davis right guard to NE 20 for 7 yards (2-H.Landry).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:34NE +11% win prob(9:34) (Shotgun) 32-I.Davis right guard to NE 20 for 7 yards (2-H.Landry).
Q1 · 8:20NE +7% win prob(8:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 15-A.Mitchell to NE 6 for 10 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
Q1 · 11:40NE +6% win prob(11:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end pushed ob at NE 32 for 14 yards (14-R.Spillane). NE-97-M.Williams was injured during the play.
Q1 · 6:12NE +6% win prob(6:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs to NE 39 for 8 yards (29-J.Brownlee). PENALTY on NYJ-29-J.Brownlee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 39.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:01NYJ Touchdown
(7:01) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — NE 0
Q2 · 14:23NE Touchdown
(14:23) 32-T.Henderson left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — NE 7
Q2 · 7:58NE Touchdown
(7:58) 77-B.Brown reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — NE 14
Q3 · 7:51NE Touchdown
(7:51) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 32-T.Henderson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — NE 21
Q3 · 3:17NYJ Touchdown
(3:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass deep left to 3-J.Metchie for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 14 — NE 21
Q4 · 12:11NE Field goal
(12:11) 36-A.Borregales 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NYJ 14 — NE 24
Q4 · 6:38NE Field goal
(6:38) 36-A.Borregales 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NYJ 14 — NE 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Patriots
Offensive plays	57	60
Total yards	245	339 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.09	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	47%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.07
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	15	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

25/34, 281 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

12.2 expected points added · +13.5% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Justin FieldsQB

15/26, 116 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-7.4 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Justin FieldsQB

11 att, 67 yds, 1 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

TreVeyon HendersonRB

19 att, 62 yds, 2 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Stefon DiggsWR

9/11 for 105 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Mack HollinsWR

4/5 for 64 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 28	16	72	8:04	Touchdown +7
2	NE	NE 31	15	54	7:40	Touchdown +7
3	NYJ	NYJ 31	5	7	1:33	Punt
4	NE	NE 17	9	83	4:49	Touchdown +7
5	NYJ	NYJ 38	5	6	1:47	Punt
6	NE	NE 15	6	15	2:48	Punt
7	NYJ	NYJ 7	4	8	1:31	Punt
8	NE	NE 41	7	32	1:48	Missed field goal
9	NE	NE 34	5	3	0:53	Punt
10	NYJ	NYJ 32	7	29	2:51	Punt
11	NE	NE 31	7	69	3:30	Touchdown +7
12	NYJ	NYJ 35	11	65	4:36	Touchdown +7
13	NE	NE 28	11	51	6:04	Field goal +3
14	NYJ	NYJ 28	8	8	2:58	Punt
15	NE	NE 20	5	17	1:34	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 15	1	0	0:05	Fumble
17	NE	NYJ 11	4	3	0:53	Field goal +3
18	NYJ	NYJ 35	13	50	4:39	Turnover on downs
19	NE	NE 15	5	12	1:57	End of game

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 83 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	15/26	116	1	0	2	-7.4
Isaiah Williams	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Justin Fields	11	67	6.1	1	2.0
Breece Hall	14	58	4.1	0	0.3
Isaiah Davis	2	11	5.5	0	1.2
Isaiah Williams	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
John Metchie III	3	3	45	1	12%	6.2
Mason Taylor	4	4	30	0	15%	0.5
Jeremy Ruckert	4	5	23	0	19%	-2.6
Adonai Mitchell	1	6	10	0	23%	-2.4
Breece Hall	2	2	6	0	8%	-0.6
Isaiah Williams	1	4	2	0	15%	-3.4
Justin Fields	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8
Isaiah Davis	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Brandon Stephens	5	3	0.0	1
Jamien Sherwood	4	4	0.0	0
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.	6	2	0.0	0
Quincy Williams	5	2	0.0	0
Tony Adams	3	3	0.0	0
Harrison Phillips	2	3	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	1	3	0.0	0
Malachi Moore	3	0	0.0	1
Tyler Baron	2	1	0.0	0
Jermaine Johnson II	1	1	1.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	25/34	281	1	0	1	12.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
TreVeyon Henderson	19	62	3.3	2	0.5
D'Ernest Johnson	3	6	2.0	0	-1.2
Drake Maye	4	2	0.5	0	-0.6
DeMario Douglas	1	-5	-5.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	9	11	105	0	33%	5.3
Mack Hollins	4	5	64	0	15%	3.7
Hunter Henry	4	6	45	0	18%	1.1
DeMario Douglas	3	3	36	0	9%	5.5
TreVeyon Henderson	5	5	31	1	15%	1.4
Kyle Williams	0	3	0	0	9%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Robert Spillane	5	4	0.0	1
Jack Gibbens	5	1	0.0	0
Christian Gonzalez	5	0	0.0	1
Elijah Ponder	3	2	1.0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	4	1	0.0	0
Craig Woodson	3	1	0.0	0
Christian Barmore	2	1	1.0	0
Harold Landry III	2	1	0.0	0
Jahlani Tavai	2	1	0.0	0
Carlton Davis III	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -12.5
Closing total: 43.5
NYJ moneyline: +625
NE moneyline: -950

Patriots closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 13.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 41 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 39°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: NYJ 4 days · NE 4 days
Coaches: Aaron Glenn vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.