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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:38 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Jets 14 at New England Patriots 27. Final.
Patriots -12.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 11
New England Patriots 27, Jets 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:34, 3rd and 5, on Isaiah Davis — 10.5 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:34 · 3rd and 5
Isaiah Davis
Jets
(9:34) (Shotgun) 32-I.Davis right guard to NE 20 for 7 yards (2-H.Landry).
Patriots closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 13.
New England Patriots 27–14. Biggest swing: Q1 9:34, Jets +10.5% win probability on one snap.
10.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin FieldsJetsQ1 11:40(11:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end pushed ob at NE 32 for 14 yards (14-R.Spillane). NE-97-M.Williams was injured during the play.
5.7pts
Adonai MitchellJetsQ1 8:20(8:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 15-A.Mitchell to NE 6 for 10 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
6.6pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jets at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 1 giveaway.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Jets151 of 162 plays carry both curves
(9:34) (Shotgun) 32-I.Davis right guard to NE 20 for 7 yards (2-H.Landry).
Swing −10.5 for PatriotsExpected points −1.28 for PatriotsThe model had Jets 34 points higher than the market did.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:34NE +11% win prob(9:34) (Shotgun) 32-I.Davis right guard to NE 20 for 7 yards (2-H.Landry).
1st · 8:20NE +7% win prob(8:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 15-A.Mitchell to NE 6 for 10 yards (21-J.Hawkins).
1st · 11:40NE +6% win prob(11:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end pushed ob at NE 32 for 14 yards (14-R.Spillane). NE-97-M.Williams was injured during the play.
1st · 6:12NE +6% win prob(6:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs to NE 39 for 8 yards (29-J.Brownlee). PENALTY on NYJ-29-J.Brownlee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 39.
2nd · 15:00NE +5% win prob(15:00) 77-B.Brown and 95-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson right tackle to NYJ 7 for 3 yards (29-J.Brownlee).
1st · 6:51NYJ +5% win prob(6:51) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry to NE 31 for no gain (56-Q.Williams).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
TreVeyon Henderson's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 7:58 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th12:11Andy Borregales·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Ashby+314–24
4th6:38Andy Borregales·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Ashby+314–27
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryPatriots
Jets1–7Patriots
245Total yards339
4.3Yards per play5.7
47%Success rate48%
57%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays5
15First downs20
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Jets: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.17Patriots: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.10Jets: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.31Patriots: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Jets: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.07Patriots: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 57 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Patriots’s 60 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Patriots 5.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Patriots18.2%
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate, 25.0% against a season mean of 44.0% — and NYJ swings 27.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields scrambles+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:40) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end pushed ob at NE 32 for 14 yards (14-R.Spillane). NE-97-M.Williams was injured during the play.
Q1 11:40 · Jets · 3rd & 4 at NE 46 · gained 14 · +1.91 EP · +8.6% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 83 yards from the NE 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
49%
Yards
581
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0352%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0869%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.4536%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0950%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR7+0.430%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Jets6Patriots0
Jets7Patriots0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Patriots 5
The period ended13 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Jets 10
2nd quarter48 plays
Jets7Patriots6
Jets7Patriots7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 7
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 38
Jets7Patriots13
Jets7Patriots14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Jets 7
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Jets 44
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 30
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 7 to the Jets 15
The period ended15 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Jets 27
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Patriots 37
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Patriots 46
Jets7Patriots20
Jets7Patriots21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Jets 6
Jets13Patriots21
Jets14Patriots21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Patriots 22
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Jets 44
4th quarter45 plays
Jets14Patriots24
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 41 to the Jets 18
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Jets 38
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 42
Fumble lost1 play
Jets14Patriots27
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 11 to the Jets 8
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Patriots 13
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
