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Seattle Seahawks 19 at Los Angeles Rams 21. Final.
Rams -3 no coverU 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 11
Los Angeles Rams 21, Seahawks 19 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:01, 2nd and 4, on Jason Myers — 31.6 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:01 · 2nd and 4
Jason Myers
Rams
(:01) 5-J.Myers 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Dome
Rams closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Rams 21–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, Rams +31.6% win probability on one snap.
31.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kamren KinchensRamsQ1 10:59(10:59) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at SEA 34. 26-K.Kinchens pushed ob at SEA 3 for 31 yards (14-S.Darnold).
19.3pts
Kamren KinchensRamsQ3 1:15(1:15) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 18-E.Arroyo INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at SEA 47. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 25 for 22 yards (72-A.Lucas).
16.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — 1 giveaway, against Seahawks at 5 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Seahawks at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 16 on third down, against Rams at 2 of 11 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Seahawks165 of 178 plays carry both curves
(:01) 5-J.Myers 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Swing +31.6 for RamsExpected points +1.32 for RamsThe model had Seahawks 7 points higher than the market did.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01SEA +32% win prob(:01) 5-J.Myers 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
1st · 10:59SEA +19% win prob(10:59) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at SEA 34. 26-K.Kinchens pushed ob at SEA 3 for 31 yards (14-S.Darnold).
3rd · 1:15SEA +17% win prob(1:15) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 18-E.Arroyo INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at SEA 47. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 25 for 22 yards (72-A.Lucas).
3rd · 14:09SEA +11% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to SEA 28 for 7 yards (8-C.Bryant). FUMBLES (8-C.Bryant), RECOVERED by SEA-42-D.Thomas at SEA 26. 42-D.Thomas to SEA 34 for 8 yards (88-J.Whittington).
1st · 12:12SEA +11% win prob(12:12) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 89-T.Higbee.
1st · 1:41LA +10% win prob(1:41) 23-K.Williams left tackle to SEA 1 for 34 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kyren Williams's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 8:41 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:41Kyren Williams·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st6:36Jason Myers·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+33–7
1st1:06Davante Adams·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+73–14
2nd9:07Jason Myers·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+36–14
2nd0:04Jason Myers·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+39–14
3rd8:05Jason Myers·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+312–14
4th14:21Colby Parkinson·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+712–21
Seahawks ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Rams, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Seahawks: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.17Rams: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Seahawks: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.34Rams: −0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Seahawks: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.03Rams: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 79 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Rams’s 50 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Rams 4.
NoteSeahawks outgained Rams 414-249 but lost the turnover battle 5-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's play-action rate turned over: 38.5% in week 10 against 20.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 22.2% in week 10 against 53.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Rams6.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.2 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.7%, 11.2 points below their season mean of 17.9% and 1.3 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
72Abraham LucasT · Every snap100%84 snaps
75Anthony BradfordG · Every snap100%84 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%84 snaps
55Olu OluwatimiC · Every snap100%84 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%84 snaps
76Grey ZabelG · Full-time88%74 snaps
88AJ BarnerTE · Full-time87%73 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Full-time83%70 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Full-time81%68 snaps
22Rashid ShaheedWR · Heavy rotation54%45 snaps
9Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Heavy rotation51%43 snaps
26Zach CharbonnetRB · Rotational43%36 snaps
18Elijah ArroyoTE · Rotational37%31 snaps
82Cody WhiteWR · Rotational26%22 snaps
40Robbie OuztsFB · Situational23%19 snaps
89Nick KallerupTE · Situational13%11 snaps
64Christian HaynesG · Situational12%10 snaps
36George HolaniRB · Situational2%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jared IveyOLBConnor O'TooleOLBJalen MilroeQBMason RichmanTTory HortonWRJake BoboWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jason Myers−39% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) 5-J.Myers 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 0:01 · Seahawks · 2nd & 4 at LA 43 · gained nothing · -1.32 EP · −38.8% win probability
163 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 89 yards from the SEA 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
43%
Yards
663
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0568%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0669%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR18-0.5833%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.7944%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.0440%
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.0825%
Seahawks0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Seahawks 8
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Seahawks 8 to the Seahawks 21
Seahawks0Rams6
Seahawks0Rams7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 3 to the Seahawks 1
Seahawks3Rams7
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Rams 39
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Seahawks3Rams13
Seahawks3Rams14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Seahawks 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 38
2nd quarter36 plays
Seahawks6Rams14
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Rams 12
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Rams 41
Seahawks9Rams14
Field goal17 plays, from the Seahawks 8 to the Rams 3
3rd quarter42 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Seahawks 36
Fumble lost2 plays
Seahawks12Rams14
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 34 to the Rams 11
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Rams 48
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 40
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 32
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 16
4th quarter57 plays
Seahawks12Rams20
Seahawks12Rams21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 6
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Rams 36
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Seahawks 45
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 20
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 33
Seahawks18Rams21
Seahawks19Rams21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Rams 1
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Rams 49
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
The period ended14 plays, from the Seahawks 1 to the Rams 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -3
Closing total
49.5
Seahawks moneyline
+145
Rams moneyline
-175
Rams closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 40 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Mike Macdonald vs Sean McVay
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 10:55SEA +9% win prob(10:55) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle intended for 18-E.Arroyo INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams [26-K.Kinchens] at LA 33. 31-D.Williams to SEA 49 for 18 yards (10-C.Kupp).
2nd · 1:22LA +8% win prob(1:22) Direct snap to 88-A.Barner. 88-A.Barner right guard to LA 7 for 1 yard (55-B.Fiske; 48-O.Speights).
