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2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · SoFi Stadium

Seattle Seahawks

19

Los Angeles RamsWinner

21

LA -3 no coverU 49.5 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Rams 21–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, SEA +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LA ↑SEA ↓
Q4 · 0:01SEA 19 — LA 21SEA ball · 2nd & 4LA 68%

(:01) 5-J.Myers 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:01SEA +32% win prob(:01) 5-J.Myers 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
  2. Q1 · 10:59SEA +19% win prob(10:59) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at SEA 34. 26-K.Kinchens pushed ob at SEA 3 for 31 yards (14-S.Darnold).
  3. Q3 · 1:15SEA +17% win prob(1:15) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 18-E.Arroyo INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens at SEA 47. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 25 for 22 yards (72-A.Lucas).
  4. Q3 · 14:09SEA +11% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to SEA 28 for 7 yards (8-C.Bryant). FUMBLES (8-C.Bryant), RECOVERED by SEA-42-D.Thomas at SEA 26. 42-D.Thomas to SEA 34 for 8 yards (88-J.Whittington).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:41LA Touchdown

    (8:41) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 0 — LA 7
  2. Q1 · 6:36SEA Field goal

    (6:36) 5-J.Myers 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 3 — LA 7
  3. Q1 · 1:06LA Touchdown

    (1:06) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-7-U.Nwosu, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 3 — LA 14
  4. Q2 · 9:07SEA Field goal

    (9:07) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 6 — LA 14
  5. Q2 · 0:04SEA Field goal

    (:04) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 9 — LA 14
  6. Q3 · 8:05SEA Field goal

    (8:05) 5-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: SEA 12 — LA 14
  7. Q4 · 14:21LA Touchdown

    (14:21) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 12 — LA 21
  8. Q4 · 2:27SEA Touchdown

    (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-76-G.Zabel was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SEA 19 — LA 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSeahawksRams
Offensive plays7950
Total yards414 (edge)249
Yards per play5.2 (edge)5.0
Expected points added / play-0.20-0.17 (edge)
Success rate46% (edge)38%
Dropback rate57%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.28 (edge)-0.34
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.03 (edge)
Third downs7/16 (edge)2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)11
Sacks taken00
Turnovers51 (edge)

Seahawks outgained Rams 414–249 but lost the turnover battle 5–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

29/44, 279 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT

-13.1 expected points added · +0.0% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

15/28, 130 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-4.0 expected points added · -16.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

12 att, 91 yds, 1 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth Walker IIIRB

16 att, 67 yds, 1 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

9/12 for 105 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

7/8 for 75 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1LALA 308472:53Turnover on downs
2SEASEA 83131:19Interception
3LASEA 3532:10Touchdown +7
4SEASEA 357262:07Field goal +3
5LALA 2612845:27Touchdown +7
6SEASEA 3514437:00Field goal +3
7LALA 40511:17Punt
8SEASEA 815897:47Field goal +3
9SEASEA 35410:47Interception
10LASEA 35270:17Fumble
11SEASEA 3410655:54Field goal +3
12LALA 227232:12Punt
13SEASEA 31492:18Punt
14LALA 126302:10Punt
15SEASEA 37100:18Interception
16LASEA 255251:49Touchdown +7
17SEASEA 307343:30Interception
18LASEA 49441:15Punt
19SEASEA 13471:31Fumble
20LALA 25471:59Punt
21SEASEA 1612843:37Touchdown +7
22LALA 316180:42Punt
23SEASEA 110431:41Missed field goal

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 89 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold29/44279040-13.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Walker III16674.21-1.1
Zach Charbonnet11373.40-1.9
Sam Darnold2115.501.1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba11111.000.7
George Holani263.00-1.0
Rashid Shaheed122.00-0.5
AJ Barner210.500.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba912105029%0.3
AJ Barner101170026%3.7
Kenneth Walker III334407%2.8
Rashid Shaheed2527012%-0.3
Cooper Kupp3723017%-8.2
Zach Charbonnet221005%1.8
Elijah Arroyo02005%-11.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones510.000
Ty Okada240.000
Byron Murphy II140.000
Coby Bryant320.000
Leonard Williams220.000
Devon Witherspoon210.000
Nick Emmanwori210.001
Riq Woolen110.001
Josh Jobe200.001
Uchenna Nwosu110.001

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Matthew Stafford15/28130200-4.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyren Williams12917.614.5
Puka Nacua2189.00-0.1
Blake Corum8101.30-3.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Puka Nacua7875030%0.1
Tyler Higbee122307%-2.5
Colby Parkinson221417%1.6
Jordan Whittington11904%0.8
Xavier Smith12807%1.3
Kyren Williams12507%-0.9
Davante Adams181130%-7.1
Blake Corum12-507%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kam Curl920.000
Nate Landman620.000
Byron Young330.000
Omar Speights240.000
Emmanuel Forbes410.001
Kamren Kinchens310.022
Poona Ford310.001
Darious Williams210.011
Quentin Lake300.000
Tyler Davis120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LA -3
Closing total
49.5
SEA moneyline
+145
LA moneyline
-175

Rams closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 40 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
SEA 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches
Mike Macdonald vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.