2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · State Farm Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Arizona Cardinals

SF -3.5 ✓O 48.5 ✓Dome49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 19.

San Francisco 49ers 41–22 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, ARI +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 15:00SF 0 — ARI 0SF ballSF 63%

38-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to SF 1. 9-S.Moore to ARI 1 for 98 yards (13-K.Clark).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 15:00ARI +18% win prob38-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to SF 1. 9-S.Moore to ARI 1 for 98 yards (13-K.Clark).
Q1 · 14:38ARI +9% win prob(14:38) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight right tackle to ARI 34 for 7 yards (2-D.Lenoir; 6-M.Mustapha).
Q1 · 3:03SF +7% win prob(3:03) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to SF 44 for 40 yards (59-C.Robinson; 46-J.Weeks).
Q1 · 1:00SF +6% win prob(1:00) 38-C.Ryland 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 14:47SF Touchdown
(14:47) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — ARI 0
Q1 · 9:57SF Touchdown
(9:57) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-W.Nolen].
Score after this play: SF 13 — ARI 0
Q1 · 5:03ARI Touchdown
(5:03) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 13 — ARI 7
Q2 · 13:44SF Touchdown
(13:44) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 19 — ARI 7
Q2 · 6:34ARI Field goal
(6:34) 38-C.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.
Score after this play: SF 19 — ARI 10
Q2 · 1:06SF Field goal
(1:06) 18-E.Pineiro 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 22 — ARI 10
Q2 · 0:00SF Field goal
(:00) 18-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 25 — ARI 10
Q3 · 7:32SF Field goal
(7:32) 18-E.Pineiro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: SF 28 — ARI 10
Q3 · 2:37SF Touchdown
(2:37) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 35 — ARI 10
Q4 · 8:32ARI Touchdown
(8:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 35 — ARI 16
Q4 · 4:49SF Touchdown
(4:49) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 41 — ARI 16
Q4 · 2:48ARI Touchdown
(2:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 4-G.Dortch for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: SF 41 — ARI 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Cardinals
Offensive plays	50	73
Total yards	284	488 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.19 (edge)	0.06
Success rate	54% (edge)	51%
Dropback rate	56%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31 (edge)	0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	3/8	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	22	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Cardinals outgained 49ers 488–284 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Jacoby BrissettQB

47/57, 452 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

9.2 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

19/26, 200 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

8.6 expected points added · +10.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

13 att, 81 yds, 2 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Bam KnightRB

5 att, 24 yds, 1 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Michael WilsonWR

15/18 for 185 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

10/11 for 115 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	ARI 1	3	1	0:16	Touchdown +7
2	ARI	ARI 27	7	17	2:45	Punt
3	SF	SF 30	6	70	2:08	Touchdown +6
4	ARI	ARI 28	11	72	4:53	Touchdown +7
5	SF	SF 35	5	0	2:14	Punt
6	ARI	SF 44	4	9	1:49	Missed field goal
7	SF	SF 48	6	47	2:16	Touchdown +6
8	ARI	ARI 29	13	73	7:10	Field goal +3
9	SF	ARI 48	5	5	1:14	Punt
10	ARI	ARI 8	5	14	2:25	Punt
11	SF	SF 39	6	26	1:49	Field goal +3
12	ARI	ARI 28	5	19	0:42	Interception
13	SF	SF 33	3	18	0:19	Field goal +3
14	ARI	ARI 31	5	14	2:28	Punt
15	SF	SF 32	9	39	5:05	Field goal +3
16	ARI	ARI 25	5	63	3:05	Interception
17	SF	ARI 14	6	14	1:50	Touchdown +7
18	ARI	ARI 30	11	77	3:40	Fumble
19	SF	SF 3	4	8	2:07	Punt
20	ARI	ARI 35	11	65	3:17	Touchdown +6
21	SF	ARI 45	9	45	3:44	Touchdown +6
22	ARI	ARI 35	10	65	2:01	Touchdown +6
23	SF	ARI 45	6	11	2:43	End of game

12 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 77 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	19/26	200	3	0	1	8.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	13	81	6.2	2	4.4
Brian Robinson	8	24	3.0	0	-1.9
Mac Jones	3	-3	-1.0	0	-3.3
Brock Purdy	1	-7	-7.0	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	6	6	67	2	24%	8.5
Jauan Jennings	4	6	54	0	24%	2.7
Christian McCaffrey	5	6	40	1	24%	3.5
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	26	0	8%	1.5
Demarcus Robinson	1	2	13	0	8%	-0.4
Brian Robinson	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Ricky Pearsall	1	2	0	0	8%	-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Curtis Robinson	5	7	0	0
Dee Winters	4	5	0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	4	3	1	2
Upton Stout	2	5	0	0
Nick Martin	5	2	0	0
Ji'Ayir Brown	3	4	0	0
Renardo Green	4	2	0	0
Luke Gifford	2	3	0	0
Jason Pinnock	3	2	0	0
Malik Mustapha	1	3	1	1

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	47/57	452	2	2	0	9.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bam Knight	5	24	4.8	1	-0.1
Emari Demercado	5	8	1.6	0	-2.0
Michael Carter	2	6	3.0	0	1.1
Jacoby Brissett	2	-2	-1.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Wilson	15	18	185	0	32%	9.7
Trey McBride	10	11	115	1	20%	5.9
Greg Dortch	6	6	66	1	11%	7.9
Michael Carter	5	7	22	0	13%	-1.2
Bam Knight	4	4	21	0	7%	-0.2
Xavier Weaver	2	3	15	0	5%	-1.4
Emari Demercado	2	3	12	0	5%	-0.4
Elijah Higgins	2	3	11	0	5%	-13.5
Andre Baccellia	1	1	5	0	2%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Cody Simon	4	8	0
Budda Baker	3	5	0
Jalen Thompson	2	3	1
Darius Robinson	1	4	0
Max Melton	2	2	1
Akeem Davis-Gaither	1	3	0
PJ Mustipher	2	1	0
Garrett Williams	1	2	1
Kei'Trel Clark	2	0	0
Zaven Collins	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3.5
Closing total: 48.5
SF moneyline: -192
ARI moneyline: +160

49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 63 — over by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: SF 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Jonathan Gannon

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.