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2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · State Farm Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco41
BY 19final margin
CardinalsArizona22
San Francisco 49ers 41 at Arizona Cardinals 22. Final.
49ers -3.5 ✓O 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 11
San Francisco 49ers 41, Cardinals 22 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 15:00 — 17.7 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00
Unnamed on the sheet
49ers
38-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to SF 1. 9-S.Moore to ARI 1 for 98 yards (13-K.Clark).
17.7
Dome
49ers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 19.
San Francisco 49ers 41–22 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, 49ers +17.7% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Bam KnightCardinalsQ1 14:38(14:38) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight right tackle to ARI 34 for 7 yards (2-D.Lenoir; 6-M.Mustapha).
9.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetCardinalsQ1 3:03(3:03) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to SF 44 for 40 yards (59-C.Robinson; 46-J.Weeks).
7.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 3 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 4 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.13 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at +0.11 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on 49ers170 of 181 plays carry both curves
Q1 · 15:0049ers 0 — Cardinals 0SF ballSF 63%
49ers 63%Cardinals 37%
38-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to SF 1. 9-S.Moore to ARI 1 for 98 yards (13-K.Clark).
Swing −17.7 for CardinalsExpected points −5.50 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 19 points higher than the market did.play 2
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 15:00ARI +18% win prob38-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to SF 1. 9-S.Moore to ARI 1 for 98 yards (13-K.Clark).
1st · 14:38ARI +9% win prob(14:38) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight right tackle to ARI 34 for 7 yards (2-D.Lenoir; 6-M.Mustapha).
1st · 3:03SF +7% win prob(3:03) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-G.Dortch to SF 44 for 40 yards (59-C.Robinson; 46-J.Weeks).
1st · 1:00SF +6% win prob(1:00) 38-C.Ryland 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-P.O'Donnell.
2nd · 13:44ARI +5% win prob(13:44) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:19ARI +5% win prob(11:19) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 15-J.Jennings to ARI 43 for 25 yards (3-B.Baker).
1st · 14:47
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian McCaffrey's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 14:47 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st14:47Christian McCaffrey·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Cardinals ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.1949ers: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.06Cardinals: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.3149ers: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.11Cardinals: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.0449ers: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.13Cardinals: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 50 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 73 at 79%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 6, Cardinals 5.
NoteCardinals outgained 49ers 488-284 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 75.0% in week 10 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.6 points.
SF's blitz rate sent turned over: 45.9% in week 10 against 10.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 18.9% in week 10 against 6.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.6 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Cardinals10.7%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteARI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 80.7%, 14.2 points above their season mean of 66.5% and 1.4 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
77Dominick PuniG · Full-time96%53 snaps
68Colton McKivitzT · Full-time95%52 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Full-time91%50 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Full-time91%50 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Full-time91%50 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time87%48 snaps
1Ricky PearsallWR · Heavy rotation75%41 snaps
15Jauan JenningsWR · Heavy rotation75%41 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Heavy rotation71%39 snaps
78Ben BartchG · Heavy rotation55%30 snaps
74Spencer BurfordT · Heavy rotation55%30 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Heavy rotation53%29 snaps
5Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational49%27 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational29%16 snaps
3Brian RobinsonRB · Rotational29%16 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Situational24%13 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Situational9%5 snaps
88Jake TongesTE · Situational9%5 snaps
61Matt HennessyC · Situational9%5 snaps
62Austen PleasantsT · Situational9%5 snaps
Inactive · 6
Eli AppleCBClelin FerrellDEKevin GivensDTConnor ColbyGJordan JamesRBJordan WatkinsWR
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
63Evan BrownG · Every snap100%79 snaps
70Paris Johnson Jr.T · Every snap100%79 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtC · Every snap100%79 snaps
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Full-time89%70 snaps
14Michael WilsonWR · Full-time82%65 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Heavy rotation73%58 snaps
89Xavier WeaverWR · Heavy rotation72%57 snaps
4Greg DortchWR · Heavy rotation66%52 snaps
76Will HernandezG · Heavy rotation66%52 snaps
22Michael CarterRB · Rotational42%33 snaps
20Bam KnightRB · Rotational41%32 snaps
78Josh FryarT · Rotational39%31 snaps
84Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational35%28 snaps
74Isaiah AdamsG · Rotational35%28 snaps
82Andre BaccelliaWR · Situational22%17 snaps
31Emari DemercadoRB · Situational18%14 snaps
49Pharaoh BrownTE · Situational14%11 snaps
45Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational5%4 snaps
71Jon Gaines IIC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Will JohnsonCBBilal NicholsDTDadrion Taylor-DemersonFSBaron BrowningOLBDemontrey JacobsTJonah WilliamsTMarvin Harrison Jr.WR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Ryland kicks+27% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
38-C.Ryland kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to SF 1. 9-S.Moore to ARI 1 for 98 yards (13-K.Clark).
Q1 15:00 · 49ers · Kickoff at ARI 35 · gained nothing · +5.50 EP · +26.9% win probability
168 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 72 yards from the ARI 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
48%
Yards
769
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.4586%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27+0.4352%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-1.1492%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12+0.0792%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1820%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.2517%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.2483%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
49ers6Cardinals0
49ers7Cardinals0
Touchdown3 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Cardinals 44
49ers13Cardinals0
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Cardinals 30
49ers13Cardinals6
49ers13Cardinals7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the 49ers 6
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 37
No good5 plays, from the 49ers 44 to the 49ers 40
The period ended3 plays, from the 49ers 48 to the Cardinals 41
2nd quarter54 plays
49ers19Cardinals7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Cardinals 9
49ers19Cardinals10
Field goal14 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the 49ers 5
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the Cardinals 43
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 8 to the Cardinals 16
49ers22Cardinals10
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the Cardinals 30
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 45
49ers25Cardinals10
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Cardinals 29
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Cardinals 40
49ers28Cardinals10
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the Cardinals 15
Intercepted7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the 49ers 22
49ers34Cardinals10
49ers35Cardinals10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Cardinals 4
The period ended9 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the 49ers 23
4th quarter47 plays
Fumble lost4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 3 to the 49ers 11
49ers35Cardinals16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the 49ers 10
49ers41Cardinals16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 45 to the Cardinals 4
49ers41Cardinals22
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the 49ers 17
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 45 to the Cardinals 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
