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polling · 300s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 12 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 11
It turned at Q2 0:45, 3rd and 5, on Ty Johnson — 21.7 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 44–32. Biggest swing: Q2 0:45, Bills +21.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:45 · 3rd and 5
Ty Johnson
Bills
(:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.34 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at +0.05 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 7 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Bills at +0.09 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Allen's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 9:10 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Sean Tucker28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker Mayfield · two-point no good+632–31
Josh Allen5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+632–3713 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 69 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Bills’s 54 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 6, Bills 7.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's sack or hit rate, 3.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
BUF's blitz rate sent, 11.4%, is past their previous low of 23.8% in week 10 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate, 40.0%, is past their previous low of 43.9% in week 8 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
TB's pass rate over expected, −12.1 pts, is past their previous low of −9.1 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 11.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-12.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.9 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.02× that swing) · 67 snaps
Bills5.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.6 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 87%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers40.0%leaned — ran early · −14.2 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 50 early downs
Bills55.0%right on their number · +4.7 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers8.6%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.5 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Bills18.2%inside their normal wobble · −9.0 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers20.0%inside their normal wobble · −25.1 vs their 45.1%, and they swing ±26.4 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Bills66.7%right on their number · +5.6 vs their 61.1%, and they swing ±21.5 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 62%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers48.5%leaned — sent pressure · +10.8 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bills11.4%off script — sat back · −19.5 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−2.07× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 38%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers3.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.3 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bills8.6%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
BUF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 11.4%, 19.5 points below their season mean of 30.9% and 2.1 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 8 inactive
Inactive · 8
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
19/30, 317 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
12.4 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected
Passing · TB
16/28, 173 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-9.0 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Sean Tucker banked 19.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 42.7 | +15.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 317 yd, 3 TD, 2 INT · 6 car, 40 yd, 3 TD |
| Sean TuckerRB · Committee Back | 34.0 | +19.6 | 44% | 26% | 7% | 5% | 19 car, 106 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| James CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 20.4 | +6.6 | 66% | 52% | 10% | 7% | 16 car, 48 yd · 3/3, 66 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyrell ShaversWR · Rotational Receiver | 19.0 | +9.8 | 54% | 48% | 17% | 25% | 4/5, 90 yd, 1 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 16.8 | −3.3 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 16/28, 173 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Ty JohnsonRB | 15.0 | +11.4 | 32% | 45% | 7% | 0% | 1 car, 9 yd · 2/2, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Featured Receiver | 10.1 | +0.8 | 66% | 89% | 19% | 27% | 1 car, 7 yd · 4/5, 54 yd |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.0 | −5.7 | 94% | 100% | 33% | 22% | 5/9, 40 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Receiving Back | 8.2 | −1.0 | 60% | 74% | 11% | 0% | 10 car, 51 yd · 2/3, 11 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 7.0 | −2.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Cade OttonTE · Featured Receiver | 4.8 | −4.7 | 97% | 100% | 19% | 18% | 2/5, 28 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −1.4 | 50% | 52% | 10% | 18% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −4.6 | 50% | 48% | 17% | 13% | 2/5, 17 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −2.3 | 77% | 94% | 10% | 11% | 1/3, 23 yd |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −5.6 | 83% | 97% | 11% | 33% | 3 car, 0 yd · 1/3, 6 yd |
| Keleki LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.7 | −3.8 | 54% | 67% | 10% | 6% | 1/3, -3 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | −1.1 | 21% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Owen WrightRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ryan MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Teddy BridgewaterQB | -0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
8 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:45 · Bills · 3rd & 5 at BUF 48 · gained 52 · +5.72 EP · +19.9% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
13 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 92 yards from the BUF 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
Buccaneers3
Bills0Buccaneers3Bills6Buccaneers3Bills7Buccaneers9Bills7Buccaneers10Bills7How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Buccaneers10Bills13Buccaneers10Bills14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Buccaneers16Bills14Buccaneers17Bills14How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Buccaneers17Bills20Buccaneers17Bills21Buccaneers20Bills21Buccaneers26Bills21Buccaneers26Bills24How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers26Bills30Buccaneers26Bills31How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Buccaneers32Bills31Buccaneers32Bills37Buccaneers32Bills43Buccaneers32Bills44Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 16/28 | 173 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −9.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker | 19 | 106 | 5.6 | 2 | +3.4 |
| Rachaad White | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Baker Mayfield |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 19% | +1.2 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 33% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zyon McCollum | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tykee Smith |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/30 | 317 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_11_TB_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -6 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 76 — over by 29.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 18.7 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 5 |
| 39 |
| 7.8 |
| 1 |
| +8.3 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Tez Johnson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| −4.4 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 2 | 34 | 1 | 7% | +3.9 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 19% | −0.7 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 11% | −0.5 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11% | −2.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Braswell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin Morrison | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jacob Parrish | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Logan Hall | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Izien | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Josh Allen | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 3 | +4.2 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Shavers | 4 | 5 | 90 | 1 | 17% | +4.8 |
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 66 | 1 | 10% | +5.2 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 61 | 1 | 7% | +6.4 |
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 13% | +4.4 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10% | +1.9 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 17% | −5.7 |
| Keleki Latu | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Mecole Hardman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 10% | −2.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Poyer | 7 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrel Bernard | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dorian Williams | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cole Bishop | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taron Johnson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deone Walker | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Sanders | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
