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2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · New Era Field

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

32

Buffalo BillsWinner

44

BUF -6 ✓O 46.5 ✓20 mph wind

Buffalo Bills 44–32. Biggest swing: Q2 0:45, BUF +22% win probability on one snap. Played in 20 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑TB ↓
Q2 · 0:45TB 17 — BUF 20BUF ball · 3rd & 5BUF 55%

(:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 0:45BUF +22% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 4:05TB +19% win prob(4:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bishop at TB 37. 24-C.Bishop to TB 25 for 12 yards (62-G.Barton).
  3. Q4 · 13:45BUF +19% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 44-S.Tucker for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 5:46BUF +18% win prob(5:46) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker right end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:57TB Field goal

    (8:57) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: TB 3 — BUF 0
  2. Q1 · 4:11BUF Touchdown

    (4:11) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 3 — BUF 7
  3. Q2 · 12:04TB Touchdown

    (12:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 10 — BUF 7
  4. Q2 · 9:01BUF Touchdown

    (9:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-T.Shavers for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 10 — BUF 14
  5. Q2 · 5:46TB Touchdown

    (5:46) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker right end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 17 — BUF 14
  6. Q2 · 0:45BUF Touchdown

    (:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 17 — BUF 21
  7. Q2 · 0:01TB Field goal

    (:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: TB 20 — BUF 21
  8. Q3 · 7:31TB Touchdown

    (7:31) 44-S.Tucker right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: TB 26 — BUF 21
  9. Q3 · 5:05BUF Field goal

    (5:05) 15-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: TB 26 — BUF 24
  10. Q3 · 3:53BUF Touchdown

    (3:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 4-J.Cook for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 26 — BUF 31
  11. Q4 · 13:45TB Touchdown

    (13:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 44-S.Tucker for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: TB 32 — BUF 31
  12. Q4 · 9:10BUF Touchdown

    (9:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: TB 32 — BUF 37
  13. Q4 · 2:42BUF Touchdown

    (2:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: TB 32 — BUF 44

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBuccaneersBills
Offensive plays6954
Total yards368414 (edge)
Yards per play5.37.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.050.24 (edge)
Success rate43%46% (edge)
Dropback rate51%61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.070.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)0.09
Third downs9/16 (edge)6/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)79 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)18
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers22

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

19/30, 317 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

12.4 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

16/28, 173 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-9.0 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Sean TuckerRB

19 att, 106 yds, 2 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

10 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Tyrell ShaversWR

4/5 for 90 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

James CookRB

3/3 for 66 yds, 1 TD

10% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 359264:23Punt
2BUFBUF 5200:11Interception
3TBBUF 7421:32Field goal +3
4BUFTB 3612364:45Touchdown +7
5TBTB 3113647:09Touchdown +7
6BUFBUF 338673:08Touchdown +7
7TBTB 348663:15Touchdown +7
8BUFBUF 49581:14Interception
9TBTB 327253:15Punt
10BUFBUF 85770:32Touchdown +7
11TBTB 366480:36Field goal +3
12BUFBUF 445112:15Punt
13TBTB 4491:33Punt
14TBBUF 438433:46Touchdown +6
15BUFTB 466252:25Field goal +3
16TBTB 28441:08Interception
17BUFTB 252250:05Touchdown +7
18TBTB 3811625:10Touchdown +6
19BUFBUF 1910864:32Touchdown +6
20TBTB 31581:51Punt
21BUFBUF 159704:40Touchdown +7
22TBTB 356110:51Fumble
23BUFBUF 39491:06Punt
24TBTB 20100:38End of game

13 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 86 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield16/28173111-9.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Sean Tucker191065.623.4
Rachaad White10515.102.6
Baker Mayfield5397.818.3
Sterling Shepard177.000.4
Tez Johnson300.00-2.0
Teddy Bridgewater1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Sterling Shepard4554019%1.2
Emeka Egbuka5940033%-4.4
Sean Tucker223417%3.9
Cade Otton2528019%-0.7
Rachaad White2311011%-0.5
Tez Johnson136011%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Antoine Winfield Jr.420.001
Zyon McCollum330.000
Tykee Smith410.002
Lavonte David310.000
Chris Braswell400.000
SirVocea Dennis040.011
Benjamin Morrison310.001
Jacob Parrish210.011
Christian Izien110.000
Yaya Diaby110.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen19/3031732012.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook16483.00-4.4
Josh Allen6406.734.2
Ty Johnson199.000.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyrell Shavers4590117%4.8
James Cook3366110%5.2
Ty Johnson226117%6.4
Gabe Davis3440013%4.4
Dawson Knox1323010%-0.4
Curtis Samuel2319010%1.9
Josh Palmer2517017%-5.7
Keleki Latu11403%-0.4
Mecole Hardman01003%-0.5
Khalil Shakir13-3010%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Poyer780.001
Terrel Bernard520.002
Dorian Williams160.001
Cole Bishop430.011
Taron Johnson330.000
Matt Milano420.000
Deone Walker140.000
DaQuan Jones121.000
T.J. Sanders120.000
A.J. Epenesa120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -6
Closing total
46.5
TB moneyline
+230
BUF moneyline
-285

Bills closed -6 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 76 — over by 29.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
38°F, wind 20 mph
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
TB 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches
Todd Bowles vs Sean McDermott

Wind at 20 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.