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live · 12s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 14 min ago · 1 live · 12 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 11
It turned at Q4 0:15, 4th and 8, on Matt Gay — 30.2 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, Dolphins +30.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:15 · 4th and 8
Matt Gay
Dolphins
(:15) 16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
30.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Dolphins at 3 of 9 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 1 giveaway.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at +0.09 expected points per dropback.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(:15) 16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Riley Patterson's 29-yard field goal with 7:37 left in overtime put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Riley Patterson29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+313–167 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryDolphins
Commanders ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 64 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 54 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Dolphins 5.
Commanders outgained Dolphins 379-311 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
MIA's play-action rate, 52.2%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 11 — 10.5 points clear of the next team along.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.2 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
MIA's blitz rate sent turned over: 23.4% in week 10 against 46.9% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-6.5 ptsright on their number · −2.1 vs their -4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 64 snaps
Dolphins-10.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their -5.6 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 84%
Tendencies room →Commanders49.0%right on their number · −2.9 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 49 early downs
Dolphins39.5%inside their normal wobble · −11.4 vs their 50.9%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 63%
Tendencies room →Commanders31.3%right on their number · +4.4 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Dolphins52.2%leaned — faked the run · +22.7 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (+1.72× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 99%
Fourth Down room →Commanders66.7%inside their normal wobble · +14.4 vs their 52.3%, and they swing ±17.2 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 59%
Tendencies room →Commanders21.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Dolphins46.9%leaned — sent pressure · +10.1 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 30%
Tendencies room →Commanders13.0%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Dolphins15.6%inside their normal wobble · +2.8 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
MIA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 52.2%, 22.7 points above their season mean of 29.5% and 1.7 times their own 13.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
20/30, 213 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
4.1 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
14/20, 171 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
2.0 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected
Receiving · WAS
7/8 for 74 yds, 1 TD
28% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Deebo Samuel Sr. banked 6.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von AchaneRB · Bell Cow Back | 21.5 | −2.7 | 80% | 87% | 25% | 0% | 21 car, 120 yd · 5/5, 45 yd |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 20.7 | +6.5 | 75% | 91% | 28% | 11% | 1 car, 3 yd · 7/8, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| Marcus MariotaQB · Starter QB | 15.4 | −4.4 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 20/30, 213 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 49 yd |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB | 10.5 | −0.7 | 39% | 30% | 0% | — | 9 car, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · Committee Back | 9.5 | −2.3 | 45% | 41% | 3% | 1% | 15 car, 79 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.2 | −6.4 | 84% | 96% | 35% | 71% | 3/7, 52 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.2 | −8.4 | 75% | 91% | 28% | 40% | 4/8, 42 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +2.8 | 50% | 70% | 15% | 11% | 3/3, 42 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 6.8 | −5.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/20, 171 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 4.9 | −1.4 | 25% | 38% | 7% | 0% | 4 car, 13 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −5.8 | 82% | 84% | 17% | 39% | 2/5, 28 yd |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB | 4.3 | −2.1 | 27% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 9 car, 28 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Featured Receiver | 3.8 | −6.1 | 54% | 70% | 20% | 19% | 2/4, 18 yd |
| Jacoby JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +2.2 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 25 yd |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +1.0 | 46% | 30% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| Jaylin LaneWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.5 | 15% | 22% | 3% | 5% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Colson YankoffTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 27% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Jaylen WrightRB | 0.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Chase EdmondsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Robbie ChosenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.1 | 36% | 38% | 3% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:15) 16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
Q4 0:15 · Commanders · 4th & 8 at MIA 38 · gained nothing · -1.66 EP · −29.1% win probability
147 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 82 yards from the WAS 6 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders0
Dolphins3Commanders3Dolphins3How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Commanders3Dolphins6Commanders6Dolphins6How the play was built
A screen, no huddle, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Commanders12Dolphins6Commanders13Dolphins6How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Commanders13Dolphins12Commanders13Dolphins13How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Commanders13Dolphins16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 20/30 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 15 | 79 | 5.3 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Marcus Mariota | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 8 | 74 | 1 | 28% | +2.4 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 28% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeremy Reaves | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 14/20 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_11_WAS_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 29 — under by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
| 9 |
| 28 |
| 3.1 |
| 0 |
| −1.7 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| −6.3 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 17% | +1.6 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 7% | +3.1 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Colson Yankoff | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +2.4 |
| Robbie Chosen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Javon Kinlaw | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Magee | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quan Martin | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Goldman | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Martin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 21 | 120 | 5.7 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 1 | −2.5 |
| Jaylen Wright | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 7 | 52 | 0 | 35% | −0.2 |
| De'Von Achane | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 25% | +1.2 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 15% | +5.1 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 20% | +0.1 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 5% | +1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 10 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 3 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zeek Biggers | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julius Brents | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ethan Bonner | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Marshall Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
