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2025 Week 11 · Sun, Nov 16, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium

Washington Commanders

13

Miami DolphinsWinner

16

MIA -2.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓

Miami Dolphins 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, WAS +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4MIA ↑WAS ↓
Q4 · 0:15WAS 13 — MIA 13WAS ball · 4th & 8WAS 68%

(:15) 16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:15WAS +30% win prob(:15) 16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
  2. Q4 · 1:44WAS +27% win prob(1:44) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 31-O.Gordon up the middle to WAS 3 for -2 yards (97-E.Goldman, 4-F.Luvu).
  3. Q4 · 4:21MIA +27% win prob(4:21) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to WAS 36, Center-49-J.Cardona. 0-M.Sainristil MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-27-E.Bonner at WAS 42.
  4. OT · 10:00WAS +23% win prob(10:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 86-Z.Ertz INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Jones [2-B.Chubb] at WAS 40. 23-J.Jones to WAS 33 for 7 yards (1-D.Samuel).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:39MIA Field goal

    (10:39) 47-R.Patterson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: WAS 0 — MIA 3
  2. Q1 · 2:40WAS Field goal

    (2:40) 16-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — MIA 3
  3. Q2 · 11:30MIA Field goal

    (11:30) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: WAS 3 — MIA 6
  4. Q2 · 0:03WAS Field goal

    (:03) 16-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Score after this play: WAS 6 — MIA 6
  5. Q3 · 11:32WAS Touchdown

    (11:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 13 — MIA 6
  6. Q4 · 12:38MIA Touchdown

    (12:38) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 31-O.Gordon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: WAS 13 — MIA 13
  7. OT · 7:37MIA Field goal

    (7:37) 47-R.Patterson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: WAS 13 — MIA 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCommandersDolphins
Offensive plays6454
Total yards379 (edge)311
Yards per play5.9 (edge)5.8
Expected points added / play0.07 (edge)-0.02
Success rate52%52% (edge)
Dropback rate50%43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.26 (edge)0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.11-0.10 (edge)
Third downs6/13 (edge)3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)89 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1919
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers10 (edge)

Commanders outgained Dolphins 379–311 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Marcus MariotaQB

20/30, 213 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

4.1 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

14/20, 171 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2.0 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

21 att, 120 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB

15 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR

7/8 for 74 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

3/7 for 52 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 208574:25Field goal +3
2WASWAS 2114577:59Field goal +3
3MIAMIA 2312566:09Field goal +3
4WASWAS 2810393:56Missed field goal
5MIAMIA 414-71:54Punt
6WASWAS 614775:37Field goal +3
7WASWAS 418593:36Touchdown +7
8MIAMIA 359585:18Turnover on downs
9WASWAS 27193:17Punt
10MIAMIA 4711535:13Touchdown +7
11WASWAS 3012696:33Turnover on downs
12MIAMIA 25111:52Punt
13MIAWAS 428392:30Turnover on downs
14WASWAS 38591:31Missed field goal
15MIAMIA 462220:10Turnover on downs
16WASWAS 35200:07Interception
17MIAWAS 334222:20Field goal +3

7 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 77 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Marcus Mariota20/302131114.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chris Rodriguez Jr.15795.300.4
Marcus Mariota44912.301.3
Jacory Croskey-Merritt9283.10-1.7
Jeremy McNichols4133.30-0.7
Deebo Samuel Sr.133.001.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Deebo Samuel Sr.7874128%2.4
Zach Ertz4842028%-6.3
Chris Moore2528017%1.6
Jacoby Jones112503%1.6
Jeremy McNichols221607%3.1
Jaylin Lane111303%1.1
Chris Rodriguez Jr.11603%0.4
Jacory Croskey-Merritt11503%0.6
Colson Yankoff11403%2.4
Robbie Chosen01003%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Bobby Wagner440.001
Jeremy Reaves520.000
Jonathan Jones421.000
Jordan Magee410.000
Javon Kinlaw230.000
Eddie Goldman220.000
Quan Martin130.000
Mike Sainristil130.000
Darnell Savage110.000
Jacob Martin111.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa14/201710032.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
De'Von Achane211205.70-0.7
Ollie Gordon II9455.01-2.5
Jaylen Wright144.000.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaylen Waddle3752035%-0.2
De'Von Achane5545025%1.2
Malik Washington3342015%5.1
Greg Dulcich2418020%0.1
Julian Hill111405%1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks10100.000
Tyrel Dodson381.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick530.000
Zeek Biggers340.000
Ashtyn Davis340.000
Ifeatu Melifonwu230.000
Julius Brents230.000
Zach Sieler120.000
Ethan Bonner110.000
Jason Marshall Jr.110.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Closing total
47.5
WAS moneyline
+124
MIA moneyline
-148

Dolphins closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 29 — under by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
WAS 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Dan Quinn vs Mike McDaniel