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Atlanta Falcons 24 at New Orleans Saints 10. Final.
Saints -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 12
Atlanta Falcons 24, Saints 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 6:53, 2nd and 9, on Justin Reid — 17.7 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:53 · 2nd and 9
Justin Reid
Saints
(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Reid (4-K.McKinstry) at ATL 49. 21-J.Reid for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 41.5 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 24–10. Biggest swing: Q2 6:53, Saints +17.7% win probability on one snap.
17.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetFalconsQ1 13:00(13:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 39, touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by ATL-20-D.Alford at NO 41. 20-D.Alford to NO 39 for 2 yards (6-T.Shough).
14.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetSaintsQ1 10:4245-Z.Gonzalez kicks 56 yards from ATL 35 to NO 9. 15-M.Tipton to ATL 16 for 75 yards (23-D.Hellams).
12.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Saints at 2 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 2 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — -0.11 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.27 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Falcons167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Reid (4-K.McKinstry) at ATL 49. 21-J.Reid for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +17.7 for SaintsExpected points +8.47 for SaintsThe model had Falcons 4 points higher than the market did.play 57
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 6:53ATL +18% win prob(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Reid (4-K.McKinstry) at ATL 49. 21-J.Reid for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:00ATL +14% win prob(13:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 39, touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by ATL-20-D.Alford at NO 41. 20-D.Alford to NO 39 for 2 yards (6-T.Shough).
1st · 10:42NO +13% win prob45-Z.Gonzalez kicks 56 yards from ATL 35 to NO 9. 15-M.Tipton to ATL 16 for 75 yards (23-D.Hellams).
4th · 12:22ATL +13% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill to ATL 5 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ATL 12. 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on NO-7-T.Hill, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at ATL 1.
2nd · 0:56ATL +12% win prob(:56) 19-B.Grupe 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
4th · 14:19NO +11% win prob(14:19) 7-T.Hill right tackle to ATL 5 for 2 yards (56-L.Floyd).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zane Gonzalez's 56-yard field goal with 10:47 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:47Zane Gonzalez·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+33–0
Falcons ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Falcons: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.27Saints: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Falcons: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.34Saints: −0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Falcons: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.15Saints: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 54 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Saints’s 78 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Saints 3.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's blitz rate sent, 15.4%, is past their previous low of 23.3% in week 2 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
ATL's play-action rate, 38.5%, is past their previous high of 28.1% in week 10 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Saints11.5%
inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
NoteATL's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 15.4%, 22.3 points below their season mean of 37.7% and 1.8 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass−24% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Reid (4-K.McKinstry) at ATL 49. 21-J.Reid for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:53 · Falcons · 2nd & 9 at ATL 41 · gained nothing · -8.47 EP · −23.9% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 77 yards from the ATL 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
42%
Yards
597
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.3180%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR34+0.0532%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.4171%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.0814%
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR5-0.320%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Falcons 28
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Saints 44
Falcons3Saints0
Field goal4 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Saints 33
No good5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Saints 46
Punt10 plays, from the Saints 8 to the Saints 38
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Falcons9Saints0
Falcons10Saints0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 46 to the Saints 8
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Falcons 45
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Falcons10Saints6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Falcons 41
Falcons10Saints7
Falcons13Saints7
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Saints 18
No good8 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Falcons 29
Falcons16Saints7
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Saints 36
3rd quarter33 plays
Turnover on downs17 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 1
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 2 to the Falcons 11
The period ended12 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Falcons 16
4th quarter53 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, thrown away.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsRoute runCornerCoverageBlown coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Falcons16Saints10
Field goal6 plays, from the Falcons 7 to the Falcons 1
Falcons22Saints10
Falcons24Saints10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Saints 49
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Saints 42
The period ended8 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Falcons 45
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Saints 34
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Saints 37
Intercepted14 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Falcons 29
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
