2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Atlanta FalconsWinner

New Orleans Saints

NO -1.5 upsetU 41.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 24–10. Biggest swing: Q2 6:53, ATL +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 6:53ATL 10 — NO 6ATL ball · 2nd & 9ATL 76%

(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Reid (4-K.McKinstry) at ATL 49. 21-J.Reid for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 6:53ATL +18% win prob(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Reid (4-K.McKinstry) at ATL 49. 21-J.Reid for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:00ATL +14% win prob(13:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 39, touched at NO 42, RECOVERED by ATL-20-D.Alford at NO 41. 20-D.Alford to NO 39 for 2 yards (6-T.Shough).
Q1 · 10:42NO +13% win prob45-Z.Gonzalez kicks 56 yards from ATL 35 to NO 9. 15-M.Tipton to ATL 16 for 75 yards (23-D.Hellams).
Q4 · 12:22ATL +13% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill to ATL 5 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ATL 12. 7-T.Hill pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on NO-7-T.Hill, Intentional Grounding, 14 yards, enforced at ATL 1.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:47ATL Field goal
(10:47) 45-Z.Gonzalez 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 3 — NO 0
Q2 · 11:35ATL Touchdown
(11:35) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-D.Sills for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 10 — NO 0
Q2 · 6:53NO Touchdown
(6:53) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 8-K.Pitts INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Reid (4-K.McKinstry) at ATL 49. 21-J.Reid for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 10 — NO 7
Q2 · 2:00ATL Field goal
(2:00) 45-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on NO-44-I.Stalbird, Defensive Offside, declined.
Score after this play: ATL 13 — NO 7
Q2 · 0:04ATL Field goal
(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 16 — NO 7
Q4 · 12:17NO Field goal
(12:17) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
Score after this play: ATL 16 — NO 10
Q4 · 11:12ATL Touchdown
(11:12) 18-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-D.Mooney for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: ATL 24 — NO 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Saints
Offensive plays	54	78
Total yards	305 (edge)	293
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	3.8
Expected points added / play	-0.11 (edge)	-0.27
Success rate	44% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	48%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15 (edge)	-0.34
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	3/11	5/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	14	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Tyler ShoughQB

30/43, 243 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-10.3 expected points added · +0.0% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

16/23, 199 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.4 expected points added · +7.2% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

14 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

12 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Darnell MooneyWR

3/3 for 74 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

9/13 for 70 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 26	5	2	1:42	Punt
2	NO	NO 42	2	2	0:22	Fumble
3	ATL	NO 39	4	1	2:14	Field goal +3
4	NO	ATL 16	5	-5	2:12	Missed field goal
5	ATL	ATL 29	5	17	3:28	Punt
6	NO	NO 8	10	40	4:45	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 23	9	77	3:46	Touchdown +7
8	NO	NO 29	9	22	2:35	Punt
9	ATL	ATL 19	4	22	2:15	Defensive touchdown
10	ATL	ATL 36	10	41	4:45	Field goal +3
11	NO	NO 35	8	36	1:04	Missed field goal
12	ATL	ATL 38	10	31	0:52	Field goal +3
13	NO	NO 25	16	62	7:28	Turnover on downs
14	ATL	ATL 2	4	9	1:55	Punt
15	NO	NO 41	15	50	8:24	Field goal +3
16	ATL	ATL 32	5	83	1:09	Touchdown +8
17	NO	NO 35	5	-4	1:42	Punt
18	ATL	ATL 27	7	18	4:26	Punt
19	NO	NO 12	6	31	1:32	Turnover on downs
20	ATL	NO 42	4	4	0:27	Punt
21	NO	NO 12	13	59	2:47	Interception
22	ATL	ATL 20	1	0	0:10	End of game

6 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 83 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	16/23	199	2	1	3	-3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bijan Robinson	14	70	5.0	0.7
Tyler Allgeier	12	44	3.7	-3.7
Kirk Cousins	2	5	2.5	0.1
Feleipe Franks	1	2	2.0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darnell Mooney	3	3	74	1	15%	7.1
Bijan Robinson	2	2	37	0	10%	3.5
Kyle Pitts	2	5	25	0	25%	-9.8
Charlie Woerner	3	3	24	0	15%	1.0
Dylan Drummond	3	3	18	0	15%	-0.1
David Sills	2	3	16	1	15%	2.7
Tyler Allgeier	1	1	5	0	5%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Dee Alford	9	1	0.0	0	1
Kaden Elliss	7	2	0.0	0	0
Divine Deablo	6	2	0.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	6	1	0.0	0	1
Xavier Watts	5	1	0.0	1	1
Mike Hughes	6	0	0.0	0	1
Kentavius Street	1	4	0.0	0	0
Brandon Dorlus	2	2	1.5	0	0
Tyler Allgeier	1	2	0.0	0	0
David Onyemata	2	1	0.0	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyler Shough	30/43	243	0	1	5	-10.3
Taysom Hill	0/2	0	0	0	0	-7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tyler Shough	7	22	3.1	-5.0
Devin Neal	7	18	2.6	-1.2
Taysom Hill	10	17	1.7	1.8
Mason Tipton	1	11	11.0	1.1
Alvin Kamara	3	11	3.7	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	9	13	70	30%	-0.6
Juwan Johnson	6	7	46	16%	-0.2
Devin Neal	5	7	43	16%	-0.5
Devaughn Vele	3	7	37	16%	-2.6
Mason Tipton	3	4	22	9%	0.6
Dante Pettis	1	1	14	2%	-1.8
Jack Stoll	1	1	7	2%	0.0
Alvin Kamara	2	2	4	5%	-1.4
Foster Moreau	0	1	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Demario Davis	6	5	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	3	4	0.0	1	1
Jonas Sanker	4	3	0.0	0	0
Alontae Taylor	5	1	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Stalbird	2	3	1.0	0	0
Chase Young	1	3	1.0	0	0
Danny Stutsman	1	2	0.0	0	0
Bryan Bresee	1	1	0.0	0	0
Chris Rumph II	2	0	0.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -1.5
Closing total: 41.5
ATL moneyline: +102
NO moneyline: -122

Saints closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 34 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: ATL 7 days · NO 14 days
Coaches: Raheem Morris vs Kellen Moore

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.