2025 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 20, 2025 · NRG Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Houston TexansWinner

BUF -5.5 upsetU 43.5 ✓DomeBills closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Houston Texans 23–19. Biggest swing: Q4 0:51, HOU +48% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:51BUF 19 — HOU 23BUF ball · 4th & 27HOU 89%

(:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 5-J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (23-J.Reed).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:51HOU +48% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 5-J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (23-J.Reed).
Q4 · 0:24BUF +36% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at HOU 9. 2-C.Bullock to HOU 9 for no gain (5-J.Palmer). Penalty on BUF-13-G.Davis, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q2 · 1:56HOU +23% win prob15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 3. 22-R.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 7:56HOU +21% win prob(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 20 for 44 yards (2-C.Bullock).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:19BUF Touchdown
(9:19) 4-J.Cook right tackle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BUF 6 — HOU 0
Q1 · 4:36HOU Field goal
(4:36) 15-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: BUF 6 — HOU 3
Q2 · 9:39BUF Field goal
(9:39) 15-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: BUF 9 — HOU 3
Q2 · 3:51HOU Touchdown
(3:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 9 — HOU 10
Q2 · 2:00HOU Field goal
(2:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: BUF 9 — HOU 13
Q2 · 1:56BUF Touchdown
15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 3. 22-R.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 16 — HOU 13
Q2 · 0:09HOU Touchdown
(:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 81-J.Higgins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: HOU-12-N.Collins has returned to the game. Penalty on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 16 — HOU 20
Q3 · 0:21HOU Field goal
(:21) 15-K.Fairbairn 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: BUF 16 — HOU 23
Q4 · 5:48BUF Field goal
(5:48) 15-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: BUF 19 — HOU 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Texans
Offensive plays	65	55
Total yards	327 (edge)	262
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	-0.16	-0.06 (edge)
Success rate	37%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	-0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	0.08
Third downs	6/16 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	15 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	8	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Bills outgained Texans 327–262 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

24/34, 253 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-7.3 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

16/30, 153 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-6.4 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

17 att, 116 yds, 1 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Woody MarksRB

16 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

8/10 for 110 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -4.6 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

3/3 for 55 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 22	5	6	1:05	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 19	11	81	4:44	Touchdown +6
3	HOU	HOU 41	11	54	4:39	Field goal +3
4	BUF	BUF 12	5	6	1:52	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 34	4	4	1:02	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 5	13	69	7:03	Field goal +3
7	HOU	HOU 23	14	57	5:48	Touchdown +7
8	BUF	BUF 25	2	0	0:21	Defensive touchdown
9	HOU	BUF 30	4	5	1:30	Field goal +3
10	BUF	—	2	0	0:13	Defensive touchdown +7
11	HOU	HOU 25	8	75	1:38	Touchdown +7
12	BUF	BUF 35	2	0	0:05	End of half
13	BUF	BUF 20	7	5	3:49	Punt
14	HOU	HOU 31	4	9	2:08	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 10	4	-1	1:34	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 47	4	8	1:42	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 8	3	20	1:38	Fumble
18	HOU	BUF 22	7	19	3:52	Field goal +3
19	BUF	BUF 35	10	40	5:08	Turnover on downs
20	HOU	HOU 25	4	1	1:00	Punt
21	BUF	BUF 38	7	42	3:25	Field goal +3
22	HOU	HOU 21	6	24	2:56	Punt
23	BUF	BUF 18	13	65	2:30	Interception
24	HOU	HOU 9	1	0	0:18	End of game

9 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 81 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	24/34	253	0	2	8	-7.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	17	116	6.8	1	-0.5
Josh Allen	5	20	4.0	0	3.4
Ty Johnson	2	7	3.5	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Khalil Shakir	8	10	110	31%	-4.6
Ty Johnson	3	3	45	9%	7.0
Jackson Hawes	2	2	26	6%	2.5
Gabe Davis	1	2	22	6%	1.6
Josh Palmer	2	4	21	13%	1.7
Dawson Knox	3	4	17	13%	0.1
James Cook	3	3	13	9%	-0.9
Reggie Gilliam	1	1	2	3%	-0.4
Elijah Moore	1	3	-3	9%	-6.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Greg Rousseau	2	4	0
Cole Bishop	3	3	0
Jordan Poyer	2	4	1
Taron Johnson	3	2	1
Matt Milano	2	2	0
Terrel Bernard	2	2	0
Deone Walker	1	2	0
Christian Benford	1	2	0
A.J. Epenesa	1	2	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	16/30	153	2	0	0	-6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Woody Marks	16	74	4.6	2.7
Nick Chubb	6	16	2.7	-2.0
Xavier Hutchinson	1	9	9.0	0.9
Jaylin Noel	1	5	5.0	0.1
Davis Mills	2	4	2.0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	3	3	55	0	11%	3.1
Christian Kirk	5	6	54	1	21%	0.3
Jayden Higgins	4	9	38	1	32%	-0.7
Dalton Schultz	1	4	8	0	14%	-1.4
Jaylin Noel	1	2	4	0	7%	-1.8
Cade Stover	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.3
Nick Chubb	1	1	-1	0	4%	-0.7
Woody Marks	1	1	-5	0	4%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jaylen Reed	9	3	0.0	0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	4	3	0.0	0	1
E.J. Speed	3	4	0.0	0	0
Henry To'oTo'o	3	4	1.0	0	0
Will Anderson Jr.	3	3	2.5	0	1
Danielle Hunter	3	3	2.0	0	0
Tommy Togiai	2	3	0.0	0	0
Calen Bullock	5	0	0.0	2	2
Kamari Lassiter	5	0	0.0	0	1
Sheldon Rankins	2	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -5.5
Closing total: 43.5
BUF moneyline: -258
HOU moneyline: +210

Bills closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 42 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: BUF 4 days · HOU 4 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs DeMeco Ryans