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Houston Texans 23, Bills 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:51, 4th and 27, on Josh Palmer — 47.5 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:51 · 4th and 27
Josh Palmer
Bills
(:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 5-J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (23-J.Reed).
Dome
Bills closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 23–19. Biggest swing: Q4 0:51, Bills +47.5% win probability on one snap.
47.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBillsQ2 1:5615-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 3. 22-R.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.9pts
Calen BullockTexansQ4 0:24(:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at HOU 9. 2-C.Bullock to HOU 9 for no gain (5-J.Palmer). Penalty on BUF-13-G.Davis, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
36.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Bills at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bills at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 16 on third down, against Texans at 2 of 12 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Texans at 5 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Bills159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 5-J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (23-J.Reed).
Swing −47.5 for TexansExpected points −4.34 for TexansModel and market agree here.play 160
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:51HOU +48% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 5-J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (23-J.Reed).
4th · 0:24BUF +36% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock at HOU 9. 2-C.Bullock to HOU 9 for no gain (5-J.Palmer). Penalty on BUF-13-G.Davis, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 1:56HOU +23% win prob15-K.Fairbairn kicks 62 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 3. 22-R.Davis for 97 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:56HOU +21% win prob(7:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 20 for 44 yards (2-C.Bullock).
2nd · 0:09HOU +15% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 81-J.Higgins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: HOU-12-N.Collins has returned to the game. Penalty on BUF-39-C.Lewis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
3rd · 4:19BUF +14% win prob(4:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 28 for 13 yards (2-C.Bullock). FUMBLES (2-C.Bullock), RECOVERED by HOU-23-J.Reed at BUF 31. 23-J.Reed to BUF 22 for 9 yards (88-D.Knox).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jayden Higgins's 8-yard touchdown catch with 0:09 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:19James Cook·45-yd TD run45-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+66–0
1st4:36Ka'imi Fairbairn·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+36–3
2nd9:39Matt Prater·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap R.Ferguson+39–3
2nd3:51Christian Kirk·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+79–10
2nd2:00Ka'imi Fairbairn·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+39–13
2nd1:56Ray Davis·97-yd return TD97-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+716–13
2nd0:09Jayden Higgins·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis MillsLead never changed again+716–20
3rd0:21Ka'imi Fairbairn·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+316–23
4th5:48Matt Prater·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap R.Ferguson+319–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryTexans
Bills5–4Texans
327Total yards262
5.0Yards per play4.8
37%Success rate42%
38%Third-down rate17%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays5
15First downs13
8Sacks taken0
3Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Bills: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.06Texans: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.27Bills: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.18Texans: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Bills: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.08Texans: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 65 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Texans’s 55 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Texans 4.
NoteBills outgained Texans 327-262 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 11.6% in week 11 against 24.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −3.5 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Texans24.4%
leaned — got home · +9.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.78× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.4%, 9.4 points above their season mean of 15.0% and 1.8 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 5-J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (23-J.Reed).
Q4 0:51 · Bills · 4th & 27 at BUF 30 · gained 44 · +4.34 EP · +32.9% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 81 yards from the BUF 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
38%
Yards
587
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.3282%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.2376%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0522%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.1014%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR6-0.140%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.2220%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 28
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bills6Texans0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Texans 45
Bills6Texans3
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Bills 5
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 18
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Texans 38
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 5 to the Bills 28
2nd quarter47 plays
Bills9Texans3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Texans 14
Bills9Texans9
Bills9Texans10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Bills 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Bills9Texans13
Field goal4 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 25
Bills15Texans13
Bills16Texans13
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Bills16Texans19
Bills16Texans20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Bills 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 43
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Bills 14
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 47 to the Bills 45
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Bills 15
Bills16Texans23
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Bills 8
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Texans 23
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 26
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bills19Texans23
Field goal7 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Texans 20
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 45
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a trick play, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted17 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Texans 17
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -5.5
Closing total
43.5
Bills moneyline
-258
Texans moneyline
+210
Bills closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 42 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Bills 4 days · Texans 4 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs DeMeco Ryans
2nd · 3:41BUF +14% win prob(3:41) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 18-E.Moore INTERCEPTED by 2-C.Bullock (0-A.Al-Shaair) at BUF 44. 2-C.Bullock for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on HOU-95-D.Barnett, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 15.
4th · 1:09BUF +13% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 37 for -10 yards (55-D.Hunter).
