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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 9 at San Francisco 49ers 20. Final.
49ers -7.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 12
San Francisco 49ers 20, Panthers 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 1:28, 1st and 1, on Ji'Ayir Brown — 13.3 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:28 · 1st and 1
Ji'Ayir Brown
49ers
(1:28) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 84-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.
49ers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.
San Francisco 49ers 20–9. Biggest swing: Q1 1:28, 49ers +13.3% win probability on one snap.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jaycee HornPanthersQ1 3:40(3:40) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at SF 30. 8-Ja.Horn to SF 16 for 14 yards (44-K.Juszczyk).
8.7pts
Jaycee HornPanthersQ2 6:27(6:27) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 1-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at CAR 45. 8-Ja.Horn ran ob at SF 33 for 22 yards (68-C.McKivitz).
10.5pts
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Panthers at 1 of 7 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — -0.00 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.20 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Panthers139 of 150 plays carry both curves
(1:28) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 84-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.
Swing +13.3 for 49ersExpected points +7.28 for 49ersThe model had Panthers 16 points higher than the market did.play 29
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:28CAR +13% win prob(1:28) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 84-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.
2nd · 6:27CAR +10% win prob(6:27) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 1-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at CAR 45. 8-Ja.Horn ran ob at SF 33 for 22 yards (68-C.McKivitz).
1st · 3:40CAR +9% win prob(3:40) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at SF 30. 8-Ja.Horn to SF 16 for 14 yards (44-K.Juszczyk).
1st · 2:08SF +6% win prob(2:08) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles right end to SF 1 for 7 yards (6-M.Mustapha).
3rd · 0:55SF +5% win prob(:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:42CAR +5% win prob(9:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 1-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Jackson at CAR -1. Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jauan Jennings's 12-yard touchdown catch with 6:23 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th9:25Matt Gay·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+39–20
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by category49ers
Panthers2–749ers
230Total yards342
5.2Yards per play5.0
41%Success rate46%
14%Third-down rate54%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays4
13First downs22
1Sacks taken0
2Turnovers3
The read
49ers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Panthers: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.0049ers: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Panthers: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.0649ers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Panthers: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.0649ers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 44 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against 49ers’s 68 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, 49ers 3.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's early-down pass rate, 77.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 5.8 points clear of the next team along.
36 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
CAR's pass rate over expected, +10.0 pts, is past their previous high of +2.3 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
43 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.4 pts in week 11 against −7.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 11 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.3 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers8.6%
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteCAR's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.8%, 24.9 points above their season mean of 52.9% and 1.8 times their own 13.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Curhan reported−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:28) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 84-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.
Q1 1:28 · Panthers · 1st & goal at SF 1 · gained nothing · -7.28 EP · −15.8% win probability
137 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 150 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 137 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 80 yards from the SF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
150 of 150 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
150
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
43%
Yards
570
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0878%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0062%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21-0.2048%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.440%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.1617%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
150 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
150 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Panthers049ers6
Panthers049ers7
Touchdown17 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the Panthers 12
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 42
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted1 play
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Intercepted4 plays, from the 49ers 16 to the 49ers 1
The period ended3 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 24
2nd quarter43 plays
The period ended11 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Panthers 28
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 28
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the 49ers 35
Panthers349ers7
Field goal7 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the 49ers 4
Panthers349ers10
Field goal7 plays, from the 49ers 46 to the Panthers 29
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 31
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 44
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 48
Panthers349ers16
Panthers349ers17
Touchdown14 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Panthers 12
Panthers949ers17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the 49ers 29
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter40 plays
Panthers949ers20
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the Panthers 11
Intercepted7 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the 49ers 33
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 32
No good8 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the 49ers 39
The period ended10 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the Panthers 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
