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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 12 · Mon, Nov 24, 2025 · Levi's Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 12
It turned at Q1 1:28, 1st and 1, on Ji'Ayir Brown — 13.3 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 20–9. Biggest swing: Q1 1:28, 49ers +13.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:28 · 1st and 1
Ji'Ayir Brown
49ers
(1:28) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 84-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Panthers at 1 of 7 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — -0.00 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.20 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(1:28) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 84-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jauan Jennings's 12-yard touchdown catch with 6:23 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Jauan Jennings12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Brock PurdyLead never changed again+70–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by category49ers
49ers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 44 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against 49ers’s 68 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, 49ers 3.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's early-down pass rate, 77.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 5.8 points clear of the next team along.
36 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
CAR's pass rate over expected, +10.0 pts, is past their previous high of +2.3 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 12.
43 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: +4.4 pts in week 11 against −7.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
SF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 11 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.6 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers10.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +15.9 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 43 snaps
49ers-7.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.3 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 68 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 88%
Tendencies room →Panthers77.8%leaned — passed early · +24.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+1.83× that swing) · 36 early downs
49ers47.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 48%
Tendencies room →Panthers28.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
49ers21.2%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Panthers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 68.0%.
49ers66.7%leaned — went for it · +30.4 vs their 36.3%, and they swing ±25.6 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 51%
Tendencies room →Panthers24.2%right on their number · −4.1 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers25.7%right on their number · +2.3 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 23%
Tendencies room →Panthers3.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.3 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers8.6%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
CAR's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 77.8%, 24.9 points above their season mean of 52.9% and 1.8 times their own 13.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
23/32, 193 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-3.2 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
18/29, 169 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-10.0 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected
Receiving · SF
7/7 for 53 yds, 0 TD
22% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Rico Dowdle banked 3.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 27.2 | +1.6 | 83% | 91% | 22% | 1% | 24 car, 89 yd, 1 TD · 7/7, 53 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Featured Receiver | 15.1 | +2.9 | 90% | 91% | 22% | 33% | 5/7, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| George KittleTE · Alpha Receiver | 13.8 | −3.6 | 91% | 94% | 31% | 34% | 6/10, 78 yd |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.5 | −0.7 | 91% | 94% | 26% | 60% | 2/7, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Rico DowdleRB · Committee Back | 11.4 | +3.7 | 65% | 63% | 15% | 0% | 6 car, 38 yd · 4/4, 36 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Receiving Back | 8.3 | −0.2 | 35% | 37% | 15% | 0% | 3 car, 16 yd · 4/4, 27 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 8.3 | −11.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/29, 169 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 15 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 7.3 | −6.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/32, 193 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 6 car, 16 yd |
| Jalen CokerWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | −2.0 | 83% | 89% | 15% | 18% | 3/4, 32 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 5.4 | −2.0 | 17% | 9% | 6% | 1% | 7 car, 40 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Featured Receiver | 5.2 | −2.5 | 67% | 69% | 19% | 33% | 3/5, 22 yd |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −5.7 | 76% | 88% | 13% | 25% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/4, 6 yd |
| Jimmy Horn Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.8 | 22% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.2 | 54% | 70% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.1 | 57% | 60% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.2 | 27% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Trevor EtienneRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.0 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 0.0 | — | 43% | 33% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:28) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 84-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.
Q1 1:28 · Panthers · 1st & goal at SF 1 · gained nothing · -7.28 EP · −15.8% win probability
137 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 150 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 137 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 145. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 80 yards from the SF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
150 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
150 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers0
49ers6Panthers049ers7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Panthers349ers7Panthers349ers10Panthers349ers16Panthers349ers17Panthers949ers17Panthers949ers20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at 49ers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 18/29 | 169 | 1 | 2 | 1 | −10.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Bryce Young |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 15% | +0.5 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 2 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krys Barnes | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 23/32 | 193 | 1 | 3 | 0 | −3.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_12_CAR_SF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 29 — under by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 15 |
| 3.8 |
| 0 |
| +1.0 |
| −4.6 |
| Jalen Coker | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 15% | +1.4 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 15% | +1.1 |
| Xavier Legette | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 19% | +0.7 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Mitchell Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −7.3 |
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bam Martin-Scott | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tershawn Wharton | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lathan Ransom | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Claudin Cherelus | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 24 | 89 | 3.7 | 1 | −1.6 |
| Brian Robinson | 7 | 40 | 5.7 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Brock Purdy | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 | +3.6 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 10 | 78 | 0 | 31% | +4.1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 22% | +2.2 |
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 7 | 41 | 1 | 22% | −1.0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 13% | −7.7 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Mustapha | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Upton Stout | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Robinson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Elliott | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pinnock | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Martin | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Okuayinonu | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
