2025 Week 12 · Mon, Nov 24, 2025 · Levi's Stadium

Carolina Panthers

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -7.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓49ers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.

San Francisco 49ers 20–9. Biggest swing: Q1 1:28, CAR +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:28CAR 0 — SF 7CAR ball · 1st & 1SF 74%

(1:28) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 84-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:28CAR +13% win prob(1:28) 74-J.Curhan reported in as eligible. 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 84-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Brown at SF -8. Touchback.
Q2 · 6:27CAR +10% win prob(6:27) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 1-R.Pearsall INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at CAR 45. 8-Ja.Horn ran ob at SF 33 for 22 yards (68-C.McKivitz).
Q1 · 3:40CAR +9% win prob(3:40) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 8-Ja.Horn at SF 30. 8-Ja.Horn to SF 16 for 14 yards (44-K.Juszczyk).
Q1 · 2:08SF +6% win prob(2:08) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles right end to SF 1 for 7 yards (6-M.Mustapha).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:23SF Touchdown
(6:23) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 15-J.Jennings for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 0 — SF 7
Q2 · 2:32CAR Field goal
(2:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — SF 7
Q2 · 1:04SF Field goal
(1:04) 14-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: CAR 3 — SF 10
Q3 · 4:47SF Touchdown
(4:47) 23-C.McCaffrey left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CAR-94-A.Robinson has returned to the game. (kick good)
Score after this play: CAR 3 — SF 17
Q3 · 0:55CAR Touchdown
(:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CAR 9 — SF 17
Q4 · 9:25SF Field goal
(9:25) 14-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.
Score after this play: CAR 9 — SF 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	49ers
Offensive plays	44	68
Total yards	230	342 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	-0.20	-0.00 (edge)
Success rate	41%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	80%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.06 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	1/7	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

23/32, 193 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-3.2 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

18/29, 169 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-10.0 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

24 att, 89 yds, 1 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Brian RobinsonRB

7 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

6/10 for 78 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

7/7 for 53 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 28	17	72	8:43	Touchdown +7
2	CAR	CAR 35	5	17	2:37	Punt
3	SF	SF 8	1	0	0:11	Interception
4	CAR	SF 16	4	15	2:07	Interception
5	SF	SF 20	12	52	6:47	Interception
6	CAR	CAR 20	4	8	1:35	Punt
7	SF	SF 17	3	3	1:41	Interception
8	CAR	SF 33	7	26	3:51	Field goal +3
9	SF	SF 46	7	25	1:28	Field goal +3
10	CAR	CAR 25	5	6	0:43	Punt
11	SF	SF 35	3	28	0:17	End of half
12	CAR	CAR 27	6	31	2:35	Punt
13	SF	SF 20	14	80	7:43	Touchdown +7
14	CAR	CAR 32	10	68	3:53	Touchdown +6
15	SF	SF 30	11	59	6:28	Field goal +3
16	CAR	CAR 35	7	32	2:54	Interception
17	SF	SF 26	4	11	1:43	Punt
18	CAR	CAR 34	7	27	2:03	Missed field goal
19	SF	SF 47	6	12	2:41	End of game

6 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	18/29	169	1	2	1	-10.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rico Dowdle	6	38	6.3	1.1
Chuba Hubbard	3	16	5.3	-0.9
Bryce Young	4	15	3.8	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rico Dowdle	4	4	36	0	15%	0.5
Tetairoa McMillan	2	7	35	1	26%	-4.6
Jalen Coker	3	4	32	0	15%	1.4
Chuba Hubbard	4	4	27	0	15%	1.1
Xavier Legette	3	5	22	0	19%	0.7
Jimmy Horn Jr.	1	1	11	0	4%	0.7
Ja'Tavion Sanders	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.2
Mitchell Evans	0	1	0	0	4%	-7.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Krys Barnes	3	7	0	0
Nick Scott	1	7	0	0
Tre'von Moehrig	4	4	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	1	6	0	0
Tershawn Wharton	2	4	0	0
Bam Martin-Scott	1	5	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	1	4	0	0
Lathan Ransom	1	4	0	0
Mike Jackson	2	2	1	1
Chau Smith-Wade	3	1	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	23/32	193	1	3	0	-3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	24	89	3.7	1	-1.6
Brian Robinson	7	40	5.7	0	0.0
Brock Purdy	6	16	2.7	0	3.6
Ricky Pearsall	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	6	10	78	0	31%	4.1
Christian McCaffrey	7	7	53	0	22%	2.2
Jauan Jennings	5	7	41	1	22%	-1.0
Demarcus Robinson	1	1	8	0	3%	0.1
Ricky Pearsall	2	4	6	0	13%	-7.7
Brian Robinson	1	2	4	0	6%	-0.6
Luke Farrell	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Malik Mustapha	6	0	0.0	0	0
Upton Stout	2	4	0.0	0	1
Ji'Ayir Brown	4	1	0.0	2	2
Curtis Robinson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Elliott	2	1	0.0	0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	2	1	0.0	0	0
Nick Martin	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jason Pinnock	2	0	0.0	0	0
Luke Farrell	1	0	0.0	0	0
Clelin Ferrell	1	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -7.5
Closing total: 48.5
CAR moneyline: +310
SF moneyline: -395

49ers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 29 — under by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 58°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: CAR 8 days · SF 8 days
Coaches: Dave Canales vs Kyle Shanahan