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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Browns170 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker.
Swing −14.4 for RaidersExpected points −3.49 for RaidersThe model had Browns 8 points higher than the market did.play 122
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:58CLE +14% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker.
1st · 1:43LV +14% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep right to 16-I.Bond to LV 2 for 52 yards (30-D.Holmes) [98-M.Crosby].
3rd · 2:45LV +10% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 17-T.Lockett to CLE 29 for 33 yards (7-T.Campbell).
2nd · 11:28CLE +9% win prob(11:28) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Snowden [69-A.Butler] at CLE 44. 49-C.Snowden to CLE 26 for 18 yards (78-J.Conklin; 12-S.Sanders).
1st · 9:27CLE +7% win prob(9:27) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to CLE 29, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-G.Larvadain to LV 27 for 44 yards (6-A.Cole). PENALTY on LV-6-A.Cole, Tripping, 14 yards, enforced at LV 27.
2nd · 0:25LV +7% win prob(:25) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to CLE 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Quinshon Judkins's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 8:29 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:29Quinshon Judkins·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Browns ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Browns: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.38Raiders: −0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Browns: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.34Raiders: −0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Browns: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.50Raiders: −0.50 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 47 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Raiders’s 75 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Browns 4, Raiders 1.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 31.4%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 3.3 points clear of the next team along.
35 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 22 team-games charted in week 12 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.8 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
LV's sack or hit rate, 23.8%, is past their previous high of 20.9% in week 6 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonTendencies
CLE's play-action rate, 33.3%, is past their previous high of 30.4% in week 7 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
21 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
leaned — got home · +9.4 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Raiders23.8%
leaned — got home · +9.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.30× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 31.4%, 24.7 points below their season mean of 56.1% and 2.0 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%51 snaps
68Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%51 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%51 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%51 snaps
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%51 snaps
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Full-time90%46 snaps
12Shedeur SandersQB · Full-time90%46 snaps
3Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation65%33 snaps
19Cedric TillmanWR · Heavy rotation53%27 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Rotational49%25 snaps
10Quinshon JudkinsRB · Rotational49%25 snaps
82Brenden BatesTE · Rotational41%21 snaps
22Dylan SampsonRB · Rotational37%19 snaps
16Isaiah BondWR · Rotational29%15 snaps
84Gage LarvadainWR · Rotational25%13 snaps
83Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational25%13 snaps
74Teven JenkinsG · Situational16%8 snaps
34Jerome FordRB · Situational16%8 snaps
86Blake WhiteheartTE · Situational14%7 snaps
Inactive · 6
Alex WrightDEZak ZinterGDillon GabrielQBRaheim SandersRBCornelius LucasTJamari ThrashWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Sanders pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:43) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep right to 16-I.Bond to LV 2 for 52 yards (30-D.Holmes) [98-M.Crosby].
Q1 1:43 · Browns · 3rd & 8 at CLE 46 · gained 52 · +5.35 EP · +12.8% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 73 yards from the CLE 27 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.28
Success rate
30%
Yards
538
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR39-0.2177%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.6263%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.2343%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR11+0.2582%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.020%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.4278%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 40
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 14 to the Raiders 25
Browns6Raiders0
Browns7Raiders0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Raiders 8
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Raiders 32
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Browns13Raiders0
Browns14Raiders0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Raiders 2
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
No good8 plays, from midfield to the Browns 27
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Browns14Raiders3
Field goal4 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Browns 23
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Raiders 48
Fumble lost1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 27
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 35
The period ended9 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Browns 44
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Browns 43
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Raiders 41
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 24
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Browns 35
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Browns 22
The period ended3 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 37
4th quarter56 plays
Browns17Raiders3
Field goal8 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Raiders 18
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Raiders 32
Browns23Raiders3
Browns24Raiders3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Browns 34
Browns24Raiders9
Browns24Raiders10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Browns 5
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 31
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Browns 43
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Raiders 29
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Raiders 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
