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2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

24

Las Vegas Raiders

10

LV -3 upsetU 35.5 ✓Dome

Cleveland Browns 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 0:58, CLE +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LVCLE
Q3 · 0:58CLE 14LV 3LV ball · 4th & 3CLE 76%

(:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 0:58CLE +14% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker.
  2. Q1 · 1:43LV +14% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep right to 16-I.Bond to LV 2 for 52 yards (30-D.Holmes) [98-M.Crosby].
  3. Q3 · 2:45LV +10% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 17-T.Lockett to CLE 29 for 33 yards (7-T.Campbell).
  4. Q2 · 11:28CLE +9% win prob(11:28) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short left intended for 3-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 49-C.Snowden [69-A.Butler] at CLE 44. 49-C.Snowden to CLE 26 for 18 yards (78-J.Conklin; 12-S.Sanders).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:29CLE Touchdown

    (8:29) (Shotgun) 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 10-Q.Judkins. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: LV-11-J.Chinn has returned to the game. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 7LV 0
  2. Q1 · 0:52CLE Touchdown

    (:52) (Shotgun) 74-T.Jenkins reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 10-Q.Judkins. 10-Q.Judkins left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 14LV 0
  3. Q2 · 9:16LV Field goal

    (9:16) 8-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: CLE 14LV 3
  4. Q4 · 12:13CLE Field goal

    (12:13) 25-A.Szmyt 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    Score after this play: CLE 17LV 3
  5. Q4 · 8:29CLE Touchdown

    (8:29) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 22-D.Sampson for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 24LV 3
  6. Q4 · 5:16LV Touchdown

    (5:16) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CLE 24LV 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBrownsRaiders
Offensive plays4775
Total yards271 (edge)268
Yards per play5.8 (edge)3.6
Expected points added / play-0.22 (edge)-0.38
Success rate26%31% (edge)
Dropback rate45%75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.12 (edge)-0.34
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.29 (edge)-0.50
Third downs3/12 (edge)4/17
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)5 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps917 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)10
Turnovers21 (edge)

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Geno SmithQB

30/44, 285 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-20.3 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Shedeur SandersQB

11/20, 209 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.0 expected points added · -6.1% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Ashton JeantyRB

17 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

-7.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Quinshon JudkinsRB

16 att, 47 yds, 2 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Tyler LockettWR

4/5 for 62 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Dylan SampsonRB

2/3 for 59 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CLECLE 32582:09Punt
2LVLV 148133:39Punt
3CLELV 133130:48Touchdown +7
4LVLV 355-91:27Punt
5CLECLE 404-61:36Punt
6LVLV 264112:11Punt
7CLECLE 276732:22Touchdown +7
8LVLV 2510454:20Missed field goal
9CLECLE 38100:08Interception
10LVCLE 26432:08Field goal +3
11CLECLE 415-11:40Punt
12LVLV 217153:28Punt
13CLECLE 281390:14Fumble
14LVLV 24401:30Punt
15CLECLE 28470:45Punt
16LVLV 236231:17Punt
17CLECLE 9100:18End of half
18LVLV 378114:01Turnover on downs
19CLELV 48471:53Punt
20LVLV 20441:01Punt
21CLECLE 137284:30Punt
22LVLV 357382:42Turnover on downs
23CLECLE 228243:45Field goal +3
24LVLV 186182:47Punt
25CLECLE 334671:03Touchdown +7
26LVLV 359393:07Touchdown +7
27CLECLE 28501:05Punt
28LVLV 316201:56Fumble
29CLECLE 495121:18Punt
30LVLV 103370:52End of game

6 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 73 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Shedeur Sanders11/202091112.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Quinshon Judkins16472.92-2.0
Dylan Sampson7233.30-3.2
Harold Fannin Jr.144.00-0.0
Shedeur Sanders1-1-1.000.0
Jerome Ford1-3-3.00-1.1
Malachi Corley1-6-6.00-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dylan Sampson2359117%6.1
Isaiah Bond2258011%4.4
Harold Fannin Jr.4640033%0.9
Jerry Jeudy1339017%-9.4
Malachi Corley11806%-0.6
Cedric Tillman135017%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith30/442851010-20.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ashton Jeanty17502.90-7.7
Geno Smith382.70-0.4
Raheem Mostert122.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyler Lockett4562012%4.2
Ashton Jeanty8858119%4.7
Brock Bowers6955021%0.2
Ian Thomas4436010%0.8
Tre Tucker31028024%-8.6
Raheem Mostert331807%-0.8
Michael Mayer111402%0.3
Dont'e Thornton Jr.121405%1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LV -3
Closing total
35.5
CLE moneyline
+136
LV moneyline
-162

Raiders closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 35.5; the game landed 34 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
CLE 7 days · LV 6 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Pete Carroll