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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:59 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Colts183 of 199 plays carry both curves
(5:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 1-X.Worthy to IND 45 for 31 yards (7-C.Ward) [20-N.Cross].
Swing +33.3 for ChiefsExpected points +3.06 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 190
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 5:33KC +33% win prob(5:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 1-X.Worthy to IND 45 for 31 yards (7-C.Ward) [20-N.Cross].
Overtime · 8:02KC +27% win prob(8:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to KC 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 10 for no gain (31-T.Goodson).
4th · 3:18KC +24% win prob(3:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to IND 24 for 19 yards (0-C.Bynum).
Overtime · 4:38KC +23% win prob(4:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice to IND 24 for 21 yards (23-K.Moore; 20-N.Cross).
Overtime · 8:41IND +21% win prob(8:41) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left end to IND 40 for -2 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
4th · 4:34KC +18% win prob(4:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice pushed ob at 50 for 47 yards (53-G.Pratt).
4th · 14:56
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 27-yard field goal with 2:00 left in overtime put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:15Michael Pittman·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+77–0
2nd14:55Harrison Butker·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+37–3
2nd10:36Andrew Ogletree·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+714–3
2nd2:24Harrison Butker·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+314–6
2nd0:10Harrison Butker·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+314–9
3rd9:16Mike Badgley·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+317–9
3rd1:29Mike Badgley·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+320–9
4th0:03Harrison Butker·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+320–20
Overtime2:00Harrison Butker·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+320–23
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryChiefs
Colts3–6Chiefs
256Total yards496
5.2Yards per play5.4
39%Success rate45%
38%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays7
10First downs30
0Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Colts: −0.00 expected points added per play
+0.01Chiefs: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Colts: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.21Chiefs: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Colts: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.28Chiefs: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 49 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 92 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Chiefs 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, +15.0 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
49 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's play-action rate, 42.4%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 37.0% in week 3.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
low through week 12Against their seasonFourth Down
IND's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 12.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 35.7 points.
KC's pass rate over expected turned over: +17.4 pts in week 11 against −3.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
91 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.0% in week 11 against 56.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
73 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Chiefs18.2%
right on their number · +1.1 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteIND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 15.0 pts, 15.6 points above their season mean of -0.6 pts and 1.8 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
P.Mahomes pass+33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 1-X.Worthy to IND 45 for 31 yards (7-C.Ward) [20-N.Cross].
OT 5:33 · Chiefs · 3rd & 7 at KC 24 · gained 31 · +3.06 EP · +33.3% win probability
181 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 199 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 193. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 90 yards from the KC 3 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
199 of 199 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
199
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
43%
Yards
751
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.1661%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.1158%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.1972%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.5376%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.0014%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.3217%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
199 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
199 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Colts 49
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Chiefs 7
Colts6Chiefs0
Colts7Chiefs0
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended17 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Colts 4
2nd quarter54 plays
Colts7Chiefs3
Field goal3 plays, from the Colts 15 to the Colts 10
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Colts13Chiefs3
Colts14Chiefs3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Chiefs 4
Colts14Chiefs6
Field goal16 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Colts 28
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Colts 40
Colts14Chiefs9
Field goal15 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Colts 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 29 to the Chiefs 36
Colts17Chiefs9
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 37 to the Chiefs 14
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 43
Colts20Chiefs9
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Chiefs 5
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Chiefs 41
4th quarter54 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Punt4 plays
Colts20Chiefs15
Colts20Chiefs17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 44 to the Colts 2
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Colts 40
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 49 to the Chiefs 45
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Colts20Chiefs20
Field goal21 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Colts 2
Overtime20 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Colts 42
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Colts20Chiefs23
Field goal14 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Colts 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -3.5
Closing total
50.5
Colts moneyline
+180
Chiefs moneyline
-218
Chiefs closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 43 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
Colts 14 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Andy Reid
IND +17% win prob
(14:56) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right end to IND 12 for 5 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), touched at IND 6, RECOVERED by IND-7-C.Ward at IND 6.
4th · 1:10KC +15% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to IND 2 for 3 yards (53-G.Pratt).
