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2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

20

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

23

KC -3.5 no coverU 50.5 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 5:33, KC +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4KC ↑IND ↓
OT · 5:33IND 20 — KC 20KC ball · 3rd & 7IND 69%

(5:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 1-X.Worthy to IND 45 for 31 yards (7-C.Ward) [20-N.Cross].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 5:33KC +33% win prob(5:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 1-X.Worthy to IND 45 for 31 yards (7-C.Ward) [20-N.Cross].
  2. OT · 8:02KC +27% win prob(8:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to KC 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 10 for no gain (31-T.Goodson).
  3. Q4 · 3:18KC +24% win prob(3:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to IND 24 for 19 yards (0-C.Bynum).
  4. OT · 4:38KC +23% win prob(4:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice to IND 24 for 21 yards (23-K.Moore; 20-N.Cross).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:15IND Touchdown

    (8:15) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — KC 0
  2. Q2 · 14:55KC Field goal

    (14:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: IND 7 — KC 3
  3. Q2 · 10:36IND Touchdown

    (10:36) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 85-A.Ogletree for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-G.Karlaftis]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 14 — KC 3
  4. Q2 · 2:24KC Field goal

    (2:24) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: IND 14 — KC 6
  5. Q2 · 0:10KC Field goal

    (:10) 7-H.Butker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: IND 14 — KC 9
  6. Q3 · 9:16IND Field goal

    (9:16) 12-M.Badgley 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 17 — KC 9
  7. Q3 · 1:29IND Field goal

    (1:29) 12-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 20 — KC 9
  8. Q4 · 8:41KC Touchdown

    (8:41) (Shotgun) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: IND 20 — KC 17
  9. Q4 · 0:03KC Field goal

    (:03) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: IND 20 — KC 20
  10. OT · 2:00KC Field goal

    (2:00) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: IND 20 — KC 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsChiefs
Offensive plays4992
Total yards256496 (edge)
Yards per play5.25.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.000.01 (edge)
Success rate39%45% (edge)
Dropback rate67%60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.110.21 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.23 (edge)-0.28
Third downs5/137/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)47 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1030 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

29/46, 352 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

8.5 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Daniel JonesQB

19/31, 181 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.4 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

30 att, 104 yds, 1 TD

-6.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

16 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Rashee RiceWR

8/12 for 141 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Xavier WorthyWR

4/8 for 59 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 319335:27Punt
2KCKC 4230:39Interception
3INDKC 3330:43Touchdown +7
4KCKC 2618748:20Field goal +3
5INDIND 2510754:20Touchdown +7
6KCKC 2214338:12Field goal +3
7INDIND 31590:38Punt
8KCKC 1510681:34Field goal +3
9INDIND 33200:07End of half
10KCKC 29571:45Punt
11INDIND 378494:03Field goal +3
12KCKC 207182:57Punt
13INDIND 2611694:49Field goal +3
14KCKC 286601:38Fumble
15INDIND 64-21:02Punt
16KCKC 4412635:09Touchdown +8
17INDIND 33571:10Punt
18KCKC 124-11:42Punt
19INDIND 49461:02Punt
20KCKC 615904:43Field goal +3
21INDIND 33572:07Punt
22KCKC 1012815:56Field goal +3

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 90 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones19/311812001.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor16583.60-3.7
Daniel Jones3165.302.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ashton Dulin114803%3.7
Tyler Warren5745023%1.8
Michael Pittman5827126%-2.1
Alec Pierce122606%0.7
Josh Downs2610019%-4.1
Mo Alie-Cox11903%0.8
Jonathan Taylor238010%-0.5
Andrew Ogletree22816%1.5
Ameer Abdullah01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Germaine Pratt1550.001
Zaire Franklin770.000
Nick Cross530.000
Sauce Gardner700.001
Kwity Paye241.000
Grover Stewart150.500
Laiatu Latu230.511
Kenny Moore II120.001
Charvarius Ward210.001
Chris Lammons300.000

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes29/463520148.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kareem Hunt301043.51-6.5
Patrick Mahomes4307.503.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire581.60-1.8
Brashard Smith155.00-0.1
Travis Kelce111.00-1.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rashee Rice812141028%5.6
Xavier Worthy4859019%2.1
Travis Kelce4643014%2.4
Brashard Smith343109%0.6
Kareem Hunt332607%0.7
Noah Gray342509%0.0
Marquise Brown111002%0.8
Clyde Edwards-Helaire22905%1.6
JuJu Smith-Schuster12805%0.5
Tyquan Thornton01002%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Bolton260.000
Bryan Cook430.001
Christian Roland-Wallace430.001
Leo Chenal330.000
Trent McDuffie500.001
Ashton Gillotte210.000
Jaden Hicks300.001
Jaylen Watson120.001
Cooper McDonald120.000
Drue Tranquill200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -3.5
Closing total
50.5
IND moneyline
+180
KC moneyline
-218

Chiefs closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 43 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
IND 14 days · KC 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Andy Reid