Jaguars 27 – Cardinals 24 (2025 Week 12) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability

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Jaguars 27 – Cardinals 24 (2025 Week 12) | Box Score, Drive Chart & Win Probability | Dynatyze

The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game

Was this normal for them?

11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.

their week-to-week swingall 32 teams

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 18 pts

Over Expected room →

Jaguars2.9 pts

right on their number · +1.2 vs their 1.7 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 60 snaps

Cardinals6.8 pts

inside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 76 snaps

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 33% to 92%

Tendencies room →

Jaguars54.2%

right on their number · −2.5 vs their 56.7%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 48 early downs

Cardinals71.9%

inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 66.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 57 early downs

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 53%

Tendencies room →

Jaguars28.6%

leaned — faked the run · +6.7 vs their 21.8%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 35 dropbacks

Cardinals20.3%

right on their number · −5.0 vs their 25.3%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 59 dropbacks

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24% to 119%

Fourth Down room →

Jaguars33.3%

inside their normal wobble · −14.2 vs their 47.6%, and they swing ±28.0 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls

Cardinals—

Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 50.0%.

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 58%

Tendencies room →

Jaguars30.5%

right on their number · +0.5 vs their 30.1%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 59 dropbacks

Cardinals40.0%

leaned — sent pressure · +15.5 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 35 dropbacks

upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 26%

Tendencies room →

Jaguars23.7%

off script — got home · +10.5 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (+2.53× that swing) · 59 dropbacks

Cardinals14.3%

inside their normal wobble · +2.9 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 35 dropbacks

JAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.7%, 10.5 points above their season mean of 13.2% and 2.5 times their own 4.2-point weekly swing.

The Game Day Roster

Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.

Jacksonville Jaguars

48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used

70Cole Van LanenT · Every snap100%62 snaps
76Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%62 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Every snap100%62 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
73Robert HainseyC · Every snap100%62 snaps
72Walker LittleT · Full-time98%61 snaps
11Parker WashingtonWR · Full-time84%52 snaps
3Jakobi MeyersWR · Full-time84%52 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Heavy rotation71%44 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Heavy rotation65%40 snaps
86Johnny MundtTE · Rotational48%30 snaps
17Tim PatrickWR · Rotational47%29 snaps
80Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational32%20 snaps
33Bhayshul TutenRB · Situational21%13 snaps
36LeQuint Allen Jr.RB · Situational15%9 snaps
64Wyatt MilumG · Situational15%9 snaps
81Austin TrammellWR · Situational10%6 snaps
5Dyami BrownWR · Situational6%4 snaps
55Chuma EdogaT · Situational5%3 snaps

Inactive · 7

Jourdan LewisCBTravon WalkerDEYasir AbdullahOLBCody SchraderRBAnton HarrisonTHunter LongTEBrian Thomas Jr.WR

Dressed, never took a snap · 1

Nick MullensQB

Arizona Cardinals

48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used

63Evan BrownG · Every snap100%84 snaps
70Paris Johnson Jr.T · Every snap100%84 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtC · Every snap100%84 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%84 snaps
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Full-time98%82 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Full-time88%74 snaps
14Michael WilsonWR · Full-time82%69 snaps
89Xavier WeaverWR · Heavy rotation68%57 snaps
4Greg DortchWR · Heavy rotation63%53 snaps
74Isaiah AdamsG · Heavy rotation62%52 snaps
22Michael CarterRB · Heavy rotation56%47 snaps
20Bam KnightRB · Rotational44%37 snaps
76Will HernandezG · Rotational38%32 snaps
84Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational37%31 snaps
82Andre BaccelliaWR · Situational19%16 snaps
45Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational17%14 snaps
78Josh FryarT · Situational15%13 snaps
49Pharaoh BrownTE · Situational10%8 snaps
19Kedon SlovisQB · Situational2%2 snaps
71Jon Gaines IIC · Situational1%1 snap

Inactive · 7

Will JohnsonCBBilal NicholsDTDadrion Taylor-DemersonFSBaron BrowningOLBXavier ThomasOLBEmari DemercadoRBMarvin Harrison Jr.WR

Dressed, never took a snap · 1

Demontrey JacobsT

The Opportunity Board

What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.

Share card

Travis Etienne banked 7.1 more points than his own workload asked for.

19 points plotted

Player	Full PPR	Vs expected	Snap share	Routes	Targets	Air yards	Line
Michael WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver	21.8	−2.6	82%	86%	33%	48%	10/15, 118 yd
Travis EtienneRB · Committee Back	20.6	+7.1	65%	60%	13%	1%	15 car, 86 yd · 3/4, 30 yd, 1 TD
Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB	18.7	−2.7	98%	—	0%	—	33/49, 317 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 20 yd
Parker WashingtonWR · Featured Receiver	18.1	+3.3	84%	91%	23%	25%	5/7, 71 yd, 1 TD
Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB	17.1	−4.3	100%	—	0%	—	18/30, 256 yd, 3 TD, 3 INT · 5 car, 29 yd
Trey McBrideTE · Featured Receiver	16.9	+1.4	88%	95%	22%	18%	9/10, 79 yd
Greg DortchWR · Featured Receiver	16.8	+2.0	63%	64%	20%	15%	2 car, -5 yd · 6/9, 53 yd, 1 TD
Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver	15.0	+2.1	84%	91%	20%	20%	4/6, 50 yd, 1 TD
Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational Receiver	14.3	+5.2	71%	74%	17%	23%	5/5, 93 yd
Bam KnightRB · Committee Back	13.2	−4.8	—	—	—	—	No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash.
Michael CarterRB	8.8	+0.6	56%	59%	7%	2%	5 car, 28 yd · 3/3, 30 yd
Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver	2.2	−0.8	48%	43%	7%	4%	1/2, 12 yd
Xavier WeaverWR · Rotational Receiver	1.9	−6.2	68%	73%	7%	20%	1/3, 9 yd
Bhayshul TutenRB	1.7	−3.2	21%	17%	3%	0%	7 car, 17 yd · 0/1, 0 yd
Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver	1.6	+0.1	17%	19%	2%	2%	1/1, 6 yd
LeQuint Allen Jr.RB	0.2	−0.4	15%	23%	0%	—	1 car, 2 yd
Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver	0.0	—	10%	5%	0%	—	No touches.
Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver	0.0	—	37%	34%	0%	—	No touches.
Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational Receiver	0.0	—	32%	26%	0%	—	No touches.
Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−9.7	47%	49%	13%	25%	0/4, 0 yd
Austin TrammellWR · Rotational Receiver	0.0	−1.6	—	—	—	—	6 snaps — too few to rate.
Kedon SlovisQB	-0.1	−0.3	—	—	—	—	2 snaps — too few to rate.

3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.

Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.

The Film Room · post-game

Post-game film: 191 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 185. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.

Possession by possession

The field rail

8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 97 yards from the JAX 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.

Every snap

Play stream

191 of 191 plays

Team

Quarter

Down

Play type

Expected points added

Event

Charted

Plays shown

191

EPA per play

-0.08

Success rate

46%

Yards

697

Who was on the field

Personnel groupings

Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.

Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.1488%

Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.5558%

Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.7161%

Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15+0.0380%

Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2356%

Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.1514%

Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5-0.2020%

Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——

Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——

Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——

Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——

Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——

Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——

Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——

Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——

snapsepapass rate

191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved

Every play

Ball

When

Play

Only

Who

191 plays

Bar length is win probability the play moved

1st quarter38 plays

Punt10 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Jaguars 44

Jaguars6Cardinals0
Jaguars7Cardinals0

Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 3 to the Cardinals 15

Punt10 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Jaguars 34

How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Jaguars7Cardinals6

Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 8 to the Jaguars 12

Jaguars7Cardinals7

The period ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Cardinals 37

2nd quarter46 plays

Jaguars10Cardinals7

Field goal5 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Cardinals 28

Jaguars10Cardinals13
Jaguars10Cardinals14

Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Jaguars 1

Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Jaguars 39

No good19 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Jaguars 15

The period ended3 plays

3rd quarter37 plays

How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds

The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 43 to the Cardinals 6

Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 26

Jaguars16Cardinals14
Jaguars17Cardinals14

Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Cardinals 10

Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Cardinals 31

How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds

The period ended4 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 30

Punt4 plays

The period ended4 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Jaguars 21

4th quarter53 plays

Punt3 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 30

Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 34

How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds

Intercepted7 plays, from the Jaguars 1 to the Jaguars 34

How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Jaguars17Cardinals20
Jaguars17Cardinals21

Touchdown4 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Jaguars 38

How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Jaguars23Cardinals21
Jaguars24Cardinals21

Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Cardinals 9

How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds

Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 36

How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds

The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Cardinals 19

How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Jaguars24Cardinals24

Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Jaguars 11

The period ended3 plays

Overtime17 plays

How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Jaguars27Cardinals24

Field goal6 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Cardinals 34

How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds

Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Jaguars 42

Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published

Just the plays, on their own page: Jaguars at Cardinals, every play.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	18/30	256	3	3	3	−9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Travis Etienne	15	86	5.7	0	−1.4
Trevor Lawrence	5	29	5.8	0	+3.0
Bhayshul Tuten

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brenton Strange	5	5	93	0	17%	+6.5
Parker Washington	5	7	71	1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Andrew Wingard	8	2	0.0	0	1
Foye Oluokun	5	5	0.0	0	0
Montaric Brown

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	33/49	317	1	0	6	−8.5
Kedon Slovis	1/1	-2	0

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Michael Carter	5	28	5.6	0	+1.7
Jacoby Brissett	3	20	6.7	0	+2.1
Bam Knight	10	12	1.2	1	−3.1
Greg Dortch	2	-5	-2.5	0	−1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Wilson	10	15	118	0	33%	+2.0
Trey McBride	9	10	79	0	22%	+5.7
Greg Dortch	6	9	53	1	20%	−3.3
Michael Carter	3	3	30	0	7%	+2.4
Bam Knight	4	5	20	0	11%	−0.9
Xavier Weaver	1	3	9	0	7%	−1.6
Josiah Deguara	1	1	6	0	2%	+0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jalen Thompson	6	3	1.0	0	1
Budda Baker	4	5	0.5	1	1
Akeem Davis-Gaither	3	4	0.0	1	1
Zaven Collins	5	2	0.0	0	0
Denzel Burke	2	4	0.0	0	0
Cody Simon	2	4	0.0	0	0
Dante Stills	2	1	0.0	0	0
BJ Ojulari	2	1	0.0	0	0
Calais Campbell	1	2	0.5	0	1
Josh Sweat	1	1	0.0	0	0

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

Scores & Schedule.

The game.

Jacksonville Jaguars 27, Cardinals 24 — on the last possessions.

How the game was won

Highest-leverage plays

The margin ledger

Situational splits

The Read

Was this normal for them?

The Game Day Roster

Top performers

The Opportunity Board

Every snap, where it happened

The field rail

Play stream

Personnel groupings

Every play

1st quarter38 plays

2nd quarter46 plays

3rd quarter37 plays

4th quarter53 plays

Overtime17 plays

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Rushing

Receiving

Defense (top contributors)

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Take it with you

Betting context

Game environment

Rushing

Receiving

Defense (top contributors)