2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · Lambeau Field

Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -6.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓Packers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Green Bay Packers 23–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 11:49, GB +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 11:49MIN 6 — GB 10GB ball · 4th & 15GB 77%

(11:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to MIN 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-39-Z.Anderson at MIN 5.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 11:49GB +13% win prob(11:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to MIN 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-39-Z.Anderson at MIN 5.
Q2 · 0:15GB +10% win prob(:15) 16-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q2 · 10:31MIN +7% win prob(10:31) 27-J.Mason up the middle to GB 18 for -1 yards (55-K.Enagbare).
Q1 · 10:52GB +5% win prob(10:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 88-L.Musgrave. PENALTY on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at MIN 47 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:58MIN Field goal
(12:58) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — GB 0
Q1 · 9:19GB Touchdown
(9:19) 70-D.Kinnard reported in as eligible. 23-E.Wilson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 3 — GB 7
Q2 · 2:28GB Field goal
(2:28) 17-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — GB 10
Q2 · 0:15MIN Field goal
(:15) 16-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 6 — GB 10
Q3 · 10:58GB Touchdown
(10:58) 23-E.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 6 — GB 17
Q4 · 12:17GB Field goal
(12:17) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: MIN 6 — GB 20
Q4 · 7:40GB Field goal
(7:40) 17-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: MIN 6 — GB 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Packers
Offensive plays	44	63
Total yards	145	290 (edge)
Yards per play	3.3	4.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.43	0.02 (edge)
Success rate	39%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	38%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.64	0.28 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	2/9	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.43.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

14/21, 139 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

5.5 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

J.J. McCarthyQB

12/19, 87 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-16.5 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Emanuel WilsonRB

28 att, 107 yds, 2 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Jordan MasonRB

8 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Christian WatsonWR

5/7 for 49 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

4/6 for 48 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 35	8	31	2:07	Field goal +3
2	GB	GB 30	9	46	3:38	Touchdown +7
3	MIN	MIN 28	8	20	4:11	Punt
4	GB	GB 2	10	27	4:01	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 24	10	58	5:37	Turnover on downs
6	GB	GB 18	14	68	8:01	Field goal +3
7	MIN	MIN 27	9	32	2:15	Field goal +3
8	GB	GB 35	2	0	0:10	End of half
9	GB	GB 28	8	22	3:23	Punt
10	GB	MIN 5	3	5	0:44	Touchdown +7
11	MIN	MIN 34	5	2	2:08	Punt
12	GB	GB 8	8	29	4:24	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 13	4	-12	2:16	Punt
14	GB	GB 45	8	43	4:52	Field goal +3
15	MIN	MIN 19	5	-12	1:56	Punt
16	GB	MIN 40	5	24	2:41	Field goal +3
17	MIN	MIN 35	2	0	0:06	Interception
18	GB	MIN 40	4	1	1:44	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 7	5	26	2:09	Interception
20	GB	GB 37	6	25	3:37	End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 68 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
J.J. McCarthy	12/19	87	0	2	5	-16.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jordan Mason	8	42	5.3	-1.6
Aaron Jones	9	41	4.6	0.6
J.J. McCarthy	2	10	5.0	-0.4
T.J. Hockenson	1	0	0.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	4	6	48	33%	-2.5
T.J. Hockenson	4	4	19	22%	-2.2
Aaron Jones	3	4	16	22%	-0.5
Josh Oliver	1	1	4	6%	-0.1
Jordan Addison	0	1	0	6%	-0.7
Adam Thielen	0	1	0	6%	-0.7
Jalen Nailor	0	1	0	6%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Blake Cashman	8	8	0.0	0
Josh Metellus	3	9	0.0	0
Theo Jackson	3	3	0.0	0
Javon Hargrave	2	4	0.0	0
Jalen Redmond	3	2	0.0	1
Andrew Van Ginkel	4	1	0.0	1
Eric Wilson	3	1	0.0	0
Isaiah Rodgers	2	1	0.0	1
Dallas Turner	1	2	1.0	0
Levi Drake Rodriguez	1	1	0.0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jordan Love	14/21	139	0	0	1	5.5
Malik Willis	1/1	7	0	0	0	0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Emanuel Wilson	28	107	3.8	2	-2.6
Chris Brooks	8	21	2.6	0	-1.4
Jordan Love	3	15	5.0	0	0.5
Malik Willis	2	3	1.5	0	-2.2
Savion Williams	1	0	0.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Watson	5	7	49	33%	4.3
Dontayvion Wicks	2	4	32	19%	1.6
Romeo Doubs	2	3	23	14%	1.0
Emanuel Wilson	2	2	18	10%	1.3
John FitzPatrick	1	1	11	5%	0.7
Luke Musgrave	1	2	7	10%	-0.4
Chris Brooks	1	1	5	5%	0.3
Josh Whyle	1	1	1	5%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Isaiah McDuffie	4	4	0.5	1	1
Kamal Hadden	1	3	0.0	0	0
Colby Wooden	3	1	0.0	0	0
Ty'Ron Hopper	2	2	0.0	0	0
Edgerrin Cooper	2	2	0.0	0	0
Evan Williams	4	0	0.0	1	1
Keisean Nixon	2	1	0.0	0	0
Rashan Gary	1	2	0.0	0	1
Devonte Wyatt	3	0	2.0	0	0
Xavier McKinney	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -6.5
Closing total: 41.5
MIN moneyline: +235
GB moneyline: -290

Packers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 29 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 43°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: MIN 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.