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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Vikings139 of 148 plays carry both curves
(11:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to MIN 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-39-Z.Anderson at MIN 5.
Swing +12.8 for PackersExpected points +6.08 for PackersThe model had Vikings 9 points higher than the market did.play 87
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 11:49GB +13% win prob(11:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to MIN 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-39-Z.Anderson at MIN 5.
2nd · 0:15GB +10% win prob(:15) 16-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
2nd · 10:31MIN +7% win prob(10:31) 27-J.Mason up the middle to GB 18 for -1 yards (55-K.Enagbare).
1st · 10:52GB +5% win prob(10:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 88-L.Musgrave. PENALTY on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at MIN 47 - No Play.
2nd · 4:28GB +4% win prob(4:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to MIN 19 for 18 yards (26-T.Jackson; 44-J.Metellus) [61-J.Redmond].
1st · 13:42GB +4% win prob(13:42) 9-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to GB 34 for 15 yards (25-K.Nixon).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Emanuel Wilson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:19 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:58Will Reichard·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+33–0
1st9:19Emanuel Wilson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
2nd2:28Brandon McManus·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–10
2nd0:15Will Reichard·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+36–10
4th12:17Brandon McManus·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+36–20
4th7:40Brandon McManus·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+36–23
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryPackers
Vikings0–9Packers
145Total yards290
3.3Yards per play4.6
39%Success rate48%
22%Third-down rate50%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays6
10First downs21
5Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.64 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.43Vikings: −0.43 expected points added per play
+0.02Packers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.64Vikings: −0.64 expected points added per play
+0.28Packers: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Vikings: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.13Packers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 44 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Packers’s 63 at 38%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 1, Packers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's sack or hit rate, 36.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 7.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 27.0% in week 3.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 11.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
GB's blitz rate sent, 8.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 5.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 11.6% in week 1.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
25 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
low through week 12Against their seasonFourth Down
GB's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 16.7% in week 1 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 12.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.4 points.
GB's early-down pass rate, 34.7%, is past their previous low of 41.5% in week 3 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Packers36.0%
off script — got home · +19.7 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+2.40× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 36.0%, 19.7 points above their season mean of 16.3% and 2.4 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Whelan punts+15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(11:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to MIN 8, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-M.Price MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-39-Z.Anderson at MIN 5.
Q3 11:49 · Packers · 4th & 15 at 50 · gained nothing · +6.08 EP · +15.0% win probability
137 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 148 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 137 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 143. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 70 yards from the GB 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
148 of 148 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
148
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
47%
Yards
433
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.4974%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.0822%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.0370%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.1318%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.5530%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.1940%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
148 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
148 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Vikings3Packers0
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Packers 34
Vikings3Packers6
Vikings3Packers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Vikings 1
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Vikings 45
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 2 to the Packers 33
The period ended3 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Vikings 31
2nd quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Packers 17
Vikings3Packers10
Field goal16 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Vikings 14
Vikings6Packers10
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Packers 40
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Vikings 45
Vikings6Packers16
Vikings6Packers17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Vikings 1
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Vikings 36
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 8 to the Packers 39
Punt4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Vikings 37
4th quarter36 plays
Vikings6Packers20
Field goal5 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Vikings 11
Punt6 plays
Vikings6Packers23
Field goal6 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Vikings 21
Intercepted2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Vikings 39
Intercepted5 plays, from the Vikings 7 to the Vikings 33
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Vikings 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
