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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 12
It turned at Q2 7:51, 2nd and 5, on Marcus Jones — 24.8 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 26–20. Biggest swing: Q2 7:51, Patriots +24.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:51 · 2nd and 5
Marcus Jones
Patriots
(7:51) 16-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 25-T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at CIN 33. 25-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
(7:51) 16-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 25-T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at CIN 33. 25-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Marcus Jones's 33-yard touchdown with 7:51 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Marcus Jones33-yd defense TD33-yard touchdownthe defense scored itLead never changed again+714–1010 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryBengals
Patriots ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 66 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Bengals’s 61 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Bengals 1.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CIN's blitz rate sent turned over: 9.1% in week 11 against 35.9% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
CIN's play-action rate turned over: 2.4% in week 11 against 18.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · +0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots6.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 66 snaps
Bengals-4.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −5.7 vs their 1.6 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 83%
Tendencies room →Patriots55.8%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 52 early downs
Bengals53.3%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 61.4%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 48%
Tendencies room →Patriots35.9%leaned — faked the run · +11.0 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.24× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bengals18.4%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Patriots20.0%inside their normal wobble · −23.0 vs their 43.0%, and they swing ±33.5 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Bengals25.0%right on their number · −9.0 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±26.8 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 57%
Tendencies room →Patriots18.4%inside their normal wobble · −9.8 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Bengals35.9%leaned — sent pressure · +14.7 vs their 21.2%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 34%
Tendencies room →Patriots15.8%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Bengals7.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
CIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 35.9%, 14.7 points above their season mean of 21.2% and 1.5 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
22/35, 294 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
6.8 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
19/37, 183 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-14.5 expected points added · -7.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
DeMario Douglas banked 3.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter HenryTE · Alpha Receiver | 24.5 | +3.4 | 79% | 82% | 30% | 26% | 7/10, 115 yd, 1 TD |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 16.0 | −12.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/35, 294 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 22 yd |
| Chase BrownRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.0 | +0.5 | 89% | 82% | 12% | 0% | 19 car, 107 yd · 2/4, 23 yd |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB · Committee Back | 11.1 | −8.8 | 65% | 59% | 12% | 2% | 18 car, 66 yd · 3/4, 15 yd |
| Mitchell TinsleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +0.8 | 74% | 74% | 18% | 28% | 2/6, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Featured Receiver | 10.6 | −1.7 | 83% | 87% | 21% | 36% | 1 car, 5 yd · 4/7, 61 yd |
| Joe FlaccoQB · Starter QB | 9.6 | −2.6 | 98% | — | 0% | — | 19/37, 183 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 3 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | −1.0 | 77% | 64% | 18% | 8% | 5/6, 31 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.5 | −1.1 | 43% | 67% | 18% | 18% | 4/6, 35 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | −3.4 | 56% | 51% | 12% | 13% | 3/4, 39 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +3.4 | 17% | 26% | 3% | 12% | 1 car, 14 yd · 1/1, 37 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Featured Receiver | 5.0 | −5.0 | 86% | 79% | 18% | 25% | 2/6, 30 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.1 | 48% | 56% | 9% | 10% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.4 | 80% | 85% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 2.0 | −9.9 | 31% | 38% | 6% | 5% | 6 car, 5 yd · 1/2, 5 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 28% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.4 | 22% | 31% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.4 | 52% | 36% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Jake BrowningQB | 0.6 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Tahj BrooksRB | 0.5 | −2.0 | 14% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 5 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Gary BrightwellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.7 | 17% | 15% | 3% | 13% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Terrell JenningsRB | 0.0 | −3.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(7:51) 16-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 25-T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at CIN 33. 25-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 7:51 · Bengals · 2nd & 5 at CIN 36 · gained nothing · -8.66 EP · −28.2% win probability
166 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 181 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 89 yards from the NE 10 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Bengals3How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots0Bengals9Patriots0Bengals10Patriots6Bengals10Patriots7Bengals10How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots13Bengals10Patriots14Bengals10Patriots17Bengals10Patriots17Bengals13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Patriots20Bengals13Patriots23Bengals13Patriots23Bengals19Patriots23Bengals20Patriots26Bengals20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 22/35 | 294 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +6.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Drake Maye | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 | −0.5 |
| DeMario Douglas |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 7 | 10 | 115 | 1 | 30% | +2.4 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton Davis III | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Craig Woodson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 19/37 | 183 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −14.5 |
| Jake Browning | 1/1 | 14 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_12_NE_CIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 46 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 14 |
| 14.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 | −7.6 |
| Terrell Jennings | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| +1.8 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 3% | +4.1 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 18% | −0.7 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 9% | +0.4 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 12% | −0.2 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +1.2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Marcus Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Robert Spillane | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry III | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Austin | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 19 | 107 | 5.6 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Tahj Brooks | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Iosivas | 4 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 21% | +2.3 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 18% | +0.9 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 18% | −1.8 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 2 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 18% | +1.8 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 12% | −2.4 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Tahj Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −8.7 |
| Charlie Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Carter | 8 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 6 | 7 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Ossai | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Battle | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daxton Hill | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kris Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Myles Murphy | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Davis | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Giles-Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
