2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · Paycor Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

NE -7.5 no coverU 50.5 ✓Patriots closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

New England Patriots 26–20. Biggest swing: Q2 7:51, NE +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:51NE 13 — CIN 10CIN ball · 2nd & 5NE 53%

(7:51) 16-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 25-T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at CIN 33. 25-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:51NE +25% win prob(7:51) 16-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 25-T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at CIN 33. 25-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 14:28NE +18% win prob(14:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Stone at NE 32. 22-G.Stone for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:23NE +12% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Gesicki (25-M.Jones) [44-K.Chaisson].
Q4 · 3:01CIN +10% win prob(3:01) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 8-S.Diggs to CIN 36 for 14 yards (20-D.Turner).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:41CIN Field goal
(6:41) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: NE 0 — CIN 3
Q2 · 14:28CIN Touchdown
(14:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep middle intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 22-G.Stone at NE 32. 22-G.Stone for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — CIN 10
Q2 · 9:43NE Touchdown
(9:43) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 85-H.Henry for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — CIN 10
Q2 · 7:51NE Touchdown
(7:51) 16-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 25-T.Brooks INTERCEPTED by 25-M.Jones at CIN 33. 25-M.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 14 — CIN 10
Q2 · 0:33NE Field goal
(:33) 36-A.Borregales 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 17 — CIN 10
Q2 · 0:04CIN Field goal
(:04) 2-E.McPherson 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: NE 17 — CIN 13
Q3 · 1:09NE Field goal
(1:09) 36-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 20 — CIN 13
Q4 · 5:58NE Field goal
(5:58) 36-A.Borregales 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 23 — CIN 13
Q4 · 4:45CIN Touchdown
(4:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep left to 82-M.Tinsley for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 23 — CIN 20
Q4 · 1:56NE Field goal
(1:56) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 26 — CIN 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bengals
Offensive plays	66	61
Total yards	393 (edge)	307
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.00 (edge)	-0.19
Success rate	47% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	59%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.35
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	0.07 (edge)
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

22/35, 294 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.8 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe FlaccoQB

19/37, 183 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-14.5 expected points added · -7.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

19 att, 107 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

TreVeyon HendersonRB

18 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Hunter HenryTE

7/10 for 115 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Andrei IosivasWR

4/7 for 61 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 24	8	17	3:09	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 19	11	46	5:15	Field goal +3
3	NE	NE 28	5	4	1:08	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 24	11	26	5:28	Punt
5	NE	NE 10	2	6	0:41	Defensive touchdown
6	NE	NE 30	11	70	4:43	Touchdown +7
7	CIN	CIN 20	5	16	1:54	Defensive touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 35	7	30	3:24	Punt
9	NE	NE 10	9	67	3:50	Field goal +3
10	CIN	CIN 18	4	37	0:28	Field goal +3
11	CIN	CIN 31	5	6	1:36	Punt
12	NE	NE 10	11	64	5:36	Turnover on downs
13	CIN	CIN 2	6	35	2:50	Punt
14	NE	NE 24	8	49	3:54	Field goal +3
15	CIN	CIN 24	8	21	3:03	Punt
16	NE	NE 20	13	89	7:06	Field goal +3
17	CIN	CIN 29	6	44	1:15	Touchdown +7
18	NE	NE 40	10	27	2:49	Field goal +3
19	CIN	CIN 28	14	46	1:33	Turnover on downs
20	NE	NE 26	1	0	0:18	End of game

8 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 89 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	22/35	294	1	1	1	6.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
TreVeyon Henderson	18	66	3.7	0.9
Drake Maye	5	22	4.4	-0.5
DeMario Douglas	1	14	14.0	0.9
Rhamondre Stevenson	6	5	0.8	-7.6
Terrell Jennings	1	0	0.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Henry	7	10	115	1	30%	2.4
Austin Hooper	3	4	39	0	12%	1.8
DeMario Douglas	1	1	37	0	3%	4.1
Mack Hollins	2	6	30	0	18%	-0.7
Stefon Diggs	2	3	20	0	9%	0.4
Kyle Williams	1	1	18	0	3%	1.4
TreVeyon Henderson	3	4	15	0	12%	-0.2
Kayshon Boutte	2	2	15	0	6%	1.2
Rhamondre Stevenson	1	2	5	0	6%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Carlton Davis III	4	4	0.0	0	3
Craig Woodson	3	3	0.0	0	0
Marcus Jones	3	2	0.0	1	2
Robert Spillane	3	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Elliss	3	2	0.0	0	0
Harold Landry III	3	1	1.0	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	2	2	0.0	0	0
Alex Austin	2	1	0.0	0	0
Christian Gonzalez	3	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Barmore	1	2	0.0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	19/37	183	1	1	1	-14.5
Jake Browning	1/1	14	0	0	0	0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chase Brown	19	107	5.6	2.0
Andrei Iosivas	1	5	5.0	-0.0
Tahj Brooks	2	5	2.5	-0.6
Joe Flacco	1	3	3.0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Andrei Iosivas	4	7	61	0	21%	2.3
Mike Gesicki	4	6	35	0	18%	0.9
Tee Higgins	5	6	31	0	18%	-1.8
Mitchell Tinsley	2	6	29	1	18%	1.8
Chase Brown	2	4	23	0	12%	-2.4
Tanner Hudson	1	1	9	0	3%	0.0
Noah Fant	1	1	9	0	3%	0.9
Tahj Brooks	0	1	0	0	3%	-8.7
Drew Sample	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Charlie Jones	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Barrett Carter	8	8	0.0	0	0
Geno Stone	6	7	0.0	1	1
Demetrius Knight Jr.	3	5	0.0	0	0
Jordan Battle	1	5	0.0	0	0
Joseph Ossai	2	4	0.0	0	0
Daxton Hill	3	1	0.0	0	1
Kris Jenkins	2	2	0.0	0	1
Jalen Davis	1	2	1.0	0	0
Joe Giles-Harris	1	2	0.0	0	1
Myles Murphy	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -7.5
Closing total: 50.5
NE moneyline: -395
CIN moneyline: +310

Patriots closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 46 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: NE 10 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Zac Taylor